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The future of warfare: Are we ready?

  • Randolph Kent

Abstract

To what extent do the ways in which we anticipate threats, analyze their possible consequences and determine ways to mitigate them explain the causes of warfare in the future? This article – though never attempting to predict – poses plausible causes of future wars that may stem from transformative change over the next two decades. In asking the question “Are we ready?” to deal with such wars, the answer is framed in terms of the interrelationship between the prospect of profound change, emerging tensions, unprecedented violence and organizational capacities to deal with complexity and uncertainty. To be prepared to deal with the prospect of future wars, relevant organizations have to be more anticipatory and adaptive, while at the same time looking for new ways to engage the wider international community. The article concludes with a set of recommendations intended to meet such organizational challenges – with the aspiration that the question “Are we ready?” can be answered more affirmatively in the future.

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1 David Edgerton, The Shock of the Old, Profile Books, London, 2006. In the author's description of “use-based innovation”, he cautions against assuming that innovation is consistently transformational. He suggests that “use” determines the impact of innovation, which in turn is determined by a range of factors, including levels of development, culture and society. In that context, he suggests that the horse had a greater impact on Nazi conquests than did the V2 rocket. Ibid., p. xii.

2 Described by David Bolliera “as a budding counterpoint to surveillance. Surveillance, of course, is the practice of the powerful monitoring people under their dominion, especially people who are suspects or prisoners – or today, simply citizens. Sousveillance – ‘to watch from below’ – has now taken off, fueled by an explosion of miniaturized digital technologies and the far-reaching abuses of the surveillance market/state.” David Bolliera, “Sousveillance as a Response to Surveillance”, News and perspectives on the commons, 24 November 2013, available at: http://bollier.org/blog/sousveillance-response-surveillance (all internet references were accessed in October 2016).

3 Interview with Professor Murray Shanahan, Professor in Cognitive Robotics, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Computing, King's College, London, 15 April 2015. Quantum computing is yet another transformative innovation, as described in an interview with Stephen Phipson, UK Government Trade and Investment, 21 June 2016.

4 Interviews with Dr. Stuart Armstrong, James Martin Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, specializing in artificial intelligence and assessing expert predictions and systemic risk, 7 April 2015; and Professor Mischa Dohler, Chair, Wireless Communications, Centre for Telecommunications Research, King's College, London, 8 April 2015.

5 This positive statistic has to be balanced against the probability that the “penetration rates” of mobile communications need to reflect the significant differences between urban and rural areas, where the former is significantly larger: e.g., Brazil urban connectivity 83.3%, rural 53.2%; Ghana urban 63.5%, rural 29.6%; India urban 76%, rural 51.2%. Sarah Gustafson, “The Digital Revolution in Agriculture: Progress and Constraints”, Food Security Portal, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 27 January 2016, available at: www.foodsecurityportal.org/digital-revolution-agriculture-progress-and-constraints.

6 Rutkin, Aviva, “First-Time Surfers”, New Scientist, Vol. 229, No. 3059, 2016, pp. 1819 . See also: Christina Richards, “Will Internet Access Via Drones Ever Fly?”, Wired, November 2014, available at: www.wired.com/insights/2014/11/internet-access-drones/.

7 Huw Price, Jaan Talinn and Martin Rees, “Humanity's Last Invention and Our Uncertain Future”, University of Cambridge Research News, 25 November 2012, available at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/humanitys-last-invention-and-our-uncertain-future.

8 Matthewman, Steve. “Dealing with Disasters: Some Warnings from Science and Technology Studies”, Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2014, p. 2.

9 As with the creation of the locomotive in the nineteenth century – the positive side of this invention in terms of more effective transportation, a plethora of related innovation and new employment opportunities had to be weighed against the negative implications of coal mining for a large swathe of the poor, the expansion of slums in urban areas and deepening social divides.

10 “The Return of the Machinery Question”, Special Report, The Economist, 25 June 2016; Paul-Choudhury, Sumit, “Outsmarted?”, New Scientist, Vol. 230, No. 3079, 2016, pp. 18 ff.

11 Takaki Shigemoto, Analyst at JSC Corp., quoted in Aya Takada, “Japan's Next Generation of Farmers Could Be Robots”, Bloomberg, 23 April 2016, available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-23/robots-replacing-japan-s-farmers-seen-preserving-food-security.

12 An interesting example in the US context can be found in Lynn A. Karoly and Constantijn W. A. Panis, The 21st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Workforce in the US, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 2004, p. 119: “There is also speculation that IT may be changing the nature of employer-employee relationships, with firms in the ‘new economy’ relying more heavily on ‘alternative’ or ‘contingent’ workers in place of traditional employees.”

13 Wallerstein, Immanuel, “The Global Possibilities 1990–2025”, in The Age of Transition: Trajectory of the World System, 1945–2025, Pluto Press, Leichhardt, 1996, p. 227.

14 United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Desertification: The Invisible Frontline, Bonn, 2014, p. 5.

15 The World Economic Forum (WEF) has noted that in “many developing countries, migration from rural areas to cities is at least partially driven by the increasing prevalence of extreme weather, such as land degradation and desertification, making agriculture more difficult”. Subsistence farmers and those whose livelihoods depend upon the land will naturally be amongst the worst affected. WEF, Insight Report: Global Risks 2015, 10th ed., report, Geneva, 2015, p. 34.

16 Ford, Martin, The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment, Basic Books, New York, 2015, pp. 283284 .

17 Castello, Anthony et al. , “Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change”, The Lancet, Vol. 373, No. 9676, 2009 .

18 Ban Ki-Moon. “Opening Remarks at 2014 Climate Summit”, UN News Center, 23 September 2014.

19 UK Ministry of Defence, Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045, London, 2015, p. 24. Amongst a growing number of innovative approaches to desalinization and water availability is an initiative undertaken by Jordan and Israel, where the former, through captured solar energy, would provide electricity to drive Israel's desalinization plants on its Mediterranean coastline. “Utilities in the Middle East”, The Economist, 16 January 2016, p. 53.

20 Ward, Diana Raines, Water Wars: Drought, Flood, Folly and the Politics of Thirst, Riverhead Books, New York, 2002, pp. 9 ff.

21 De Vries, F. W. T. Penning, Van Keulen, H. and Rabbinge, R., “Natural Resources and Limits of Food Production in 2040”, Systems Approaches for Sustainable Agricultural Development, Vol. 4, 1995 .

22 IFPRI, in its Food Security Portal, states that information and communications technologies can increase access to weather and market information, and help farmers make better informed decisions about when and where to sell crops. Examples include the Tigo Kilimo mobile app in Tanzania and the Connected Farmer mobile programme in East Africa. IFPRI warns, however, that voice messages need to be properly targeted between the farmer and the information source, and too often are not. See S. Gustafson, above note 22.

23 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2014, Paris, 12 November 2014, p. 4.

24 Ibid ., p. 43.

25 Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, Fraser Thompson, Marcel Brinkman and Marc Zornes, Resource Revolution: Meeting the World's Energy, Materials, Food, and Water Needs, report, McKinsey Global Institute, New York, 2011, pp. 134–135.

26 According to the New Scientist, an asteroid mining firm, Planetary Resources, has revealed the first object 3-D printed from meteorite ore, a scale model of one of its spacecraft parts. The rock was found on Earth, but in future the company plans to mine and manufacture in space.” “60 Seconds”, New Scientist, Vol. 229, No. 3056, 2016, p. 8.

27 Eric Mack, “‘Trillion Dollar Baby’ Asteroid Has Wannabe Space Miners Salivating”, Forbes, 19 July 2015.

28 Henderson, Vernon et al. , “Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space”, American Economic Review, Vol. 102, No. 2, 2012 .

29 It is interesting to note in this context that, according to the New Scientist, the Ethiopian director of Ethiopia's Entoto Observatory and Research Center, Solomon Belay Tessema, has stated: “A space programme is not a luxury, but a key to securing food, increasing the productivity of agriculture and developing scientific thinking. Space technology is important for many things: satellites, for instance, are used for environmental and water management, and soil assessment. We use them for disaster planning to gather meteorological data and to improve communications.” Geddes, Linda, “From Ethiopia to the Stars”, New Scientist, Vol. 229, No. 3057, 2016, p. 27.

30 See, for example, Marks, Paul, “Star Power: A Global Contest Is Under Way to Tap the Sun's Energy from Orbit. Is this the Start of a Second Space Race?”, New Scientist, Vol. 229, No. 3060, 2016, pp. 38 ff.

31 See, for example, Catherine Cheney, “NASA and USAID pioneer the use of space technology for development efforts”, Devex, 1 July 2016, available at: www.devex.com/news/nasa-and-usaid-pioneer-the-use-of-space-technologies-for-development-efforts-88365.

32 UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, Space Matters, August 2011.

33 See, for example, Anja Shortland, “Studying Somalia's War Economy from Outer Space”, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 11 September 2013, available at: www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2013/studying-somalias-war-economy-outer-space.

34 See, for example, Stiglitz, Joseph, Globalisation and its Discontents, Allen Lane, London, 2002, pp. 153 ff.

35 As stressed in a 24 January 2013 conference on “Making the Connection: The Future of Cyber and Space”: “the increasing interdependence and interconnectedness between space and cyberspace comprises an important development affecting both fields. On the one hand, space components (including satellites and base stations) have become an integral part of cyberspace. An unprecedented quantity of data is being generated and transmitted by satellites on a daily basis with an accompanying rise in space-enabled services.” Royal Institute of International Affairs, London.

36 The UK government's National Space Policy notes that “space has become increasingly important to modern Britain. This trend is set to continue as societies in the developed and developing worlds rely increasingly on space based assets as one of the critical infrastructures to meet the needs of an estimated population of 9 billion in 2050. Satellites will assist with better management of scarce resources, offer improved communications and support more efficient use of energy. Our global space assets are rightly recognized as part of our critical national infrastructure, and space weather is included in our national risk assessment, acknowledging the risk it represents to both space and ground-based facilities. Once the domain of only those who understood rocket science, space is now a leveller of society in developed and developing countries.” Government of the United Kingdom, National Space Policy, available at: https:// www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/484865/NSP_-_Final.pdf.

37 Cyber-cash – an expansion of the “bitcoin” concept – reflects an interesting example of the tension between State authority, States’ institutional adaptiveness and the unconstrained independence of alternative networks. A bitcoin, the most basic component of one form of cyber-cash, has been described as nothing more than a unique string of numbers, not tied to any real-world currency. Its strength and value come from the fact that people believe in it and use it. “Anyone can download a bitcoin wallet on to their computer, buy bitcoins with traditional currency from a currency exchange, and use them to buy or sell a growing number of products or services as easily as sending an e-mail. Transactions are secure, fast and free, with no central authority controlling value or supply, and no middleman taking a slice.” Jamie Bartlett, The Dark Net: Inside the Digital Underworld, Melville House, Brooklyn, 2015, p. 74.

38 United States Institute of Peace, “Legitimate State Monopoly Over the Means of Violence”, available at: www.usip.org/guiding-principles-stabilization-and-reconstruction-the-web-version/6-safe-and-secure-environment/le.

39 National Intelligence Council (NIC), Global Strategic Trends, draft, March 2015.

40 “[L]et's forget about trying to get the planet's nearly 200 countries to agree. We need to abandon that fool's errand in favor of a new idea: minilateralism. By minilateralism, I mean a smarter, more targeted approach: We should bring to the table the smallest possible number of countries needed to have the largest possible impact on solving a particular problem. Think of this as minilateralism's magic number.” Moises Naim, “Minilateralism: The Magic Number to Get Real International Action”, Foreign Policy, 21 June 2009.

41 WEF, The Future Role of Civil Society, World Scenario Series No. 28, 2013.

42 In this context, the president of the United States, Barack Obama, referred to the growing gap between rich and poor in the United Sates in his January 2016 State of the Union address.

43 Lucas, Edward, The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West, Bloomsbury, London, 2008 .

44 Who Pulls the Trigger?”, New Scientist, Vol. 229, No. 3056, 2016, p. 5.

45 This quote is taken from a TED Talk given by P. W. Singer, “Military Robots and the Future of Warfare”, February 2009. At the time, Singer was director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

46 Martin Robbins, “Has a Rampaging AI Algorithm Really Killed Thousands in Pakistan?”, The Guardian, 18 February 2016.

47 P. W. Singer, above note 45.

48 68th General Assembly, First Committee, 17th Meeting, 5 October 2013.

49 A European intelligence official as quoted in Sam Jones, “Satellite Wars: A New Arms Race Threatens Security in Space”, Financial Times, 21/22 November 2015.

50 Beard, Matthew, “Militarising Space: Weapons in Orbit”, in Galliott, Jai (ed.), Commercial Space Exploration: Ethics, Policy and Governance, Routledge, London, 2015, p. 117.

51 See above note 37.

52 Humanitarian Futures Programme, Is Cash Transfer Programming “Fit for the Future”? – Final Report, January 2014, available at: www.humanitarianfutures.org/publications/is-cash-transfer-programming-fit-for-the-future-final-report/.

53 S. Jones, above note 49.

54 Jan Willem Honig, “The Idea of Total War from Clausewitz to Ludendorff”, in The Pacific War as Total War: Proceedings of the 2011 International Forum on War History, National Institute for Defence Studies, Tokyo, 2012.

55 Sara Fregonese, review of Martin Coward's Urbicide: The Politics of Urban Destruction, in Global Discourse: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Current Affairs and Applied Contemporary Thought, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2010, p. 196.

56 “Among 185 countries with available data in 2013, 80 percent of Governments had policies to lower rural to urban migration, an increase from 38 per cent in 1966 …. In 2013, the proportion of Governments that had policies to lower rural to urban migration was higher in less developed regions (84 per cent) than in more developed regions (67 per cent). Between 1996 and 2013, the proportion of Governments with such policies had increased in both more and less developed regions, as well as across major regions.” United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Policies 2013.

57 Humanitarian Futures Programme, Mapping the Way Forward: Urban Futures Project Report, King's College, London, October 2013, p. 21, available at: www.humanitarianfutures.org/publications/mapping-the-way-forward/.

58 In the Pew report Digital Life in 2025, a director of operations for social network MetaFilter is quoted as saying that “the internet will help the rich get richer and become a tool to further marginalise people who are already living with poverty, mental illness, and other serious challenges”. Pew Research Center, Digital Life in 2025, 11 March 2014, available at: www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/.

59 The complex admix of refugee populations in the future has already been suggested by US NATO Commander General Phillip Breedlove, when he noted that “ISIS is spreading like cancer among refugees”. Alan Yuhus, “NATO Commander: ISIS ‘Spreading like Cancer’ Among Refugees”, The Guardian, 1 March 2016. Certainly, since Rwandan refugees were encamped in Zaire, criminals in refugee camps had become a recognized phenomenon, and criminals as well as radical opposition groups had a wide range of conventional weapons. Ever easier access to more sophisticated and lethal weapons may well mean that radical opposition groups and criminal elements in the refugee camps of the future will also have access to more sophisticated weaponry. See, for example, British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), “The Terror Trader”, documentary, Episode 5 in the series Nuclear Secrets, 2007.

60 Matthew Mather, “How Space and Cyberspace are Merging to Become the Primary Battlefield of the 21st Century”, white paper, originally appearing in Space Quarterly Magazine, 15 March 2013.

61 D. R. Ward, above note 20, p. 5. According to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “The United States is reliant on space for virtually every essential security mission, but US space capacities have not kept up with rapid global changes.”

62 NIC, above note 39.

63 David Wright, “The Current Space Debris Situation”, Orbit Debris Mitigation Workshop, Beijing, 2010, available at: https://swfound.org/media/99971/wright-space-debris_situation.pdf.

64 S. Jones, above note 49.

65 Ibid .

66 M. Beard, above note 50.

67 John Arquilla, “Rods from God: Imagine a Bundle of Telephone Poles Hurtling through Space at 7,000 mph”, SF Gate, 12 March 2006, available at: www.sfgate.com/opiion/article/RODS-FROM-GOD-Imagine-a-bundle-of-telephone-2539690.php.

68 Bostrom, Nick, “Existential Risks: Analysing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2002 .

69 BBC, above note 59.

70 “North Korea's Shadowy Arms Trade”, The Guardian, 18 July 2013.

71 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Global Food Security, Intelligence Community Assessment, ICA 2015-4, 22 September 2015.

72 UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Policy Development and Studies Branch, Water Scarcity and Humanitarian Action: Key Emerging Trends and Challenges, Occasional Policy Brief No. 4, September 2010.

73 Ibid .

74 Examples for the challenges of dam building along the Brahmaputra can be found in China Dialogue, Hazard Research Centre, University College London, and Humanitarian Futures Programme, King's College, London, The Waters of the Third Pole: Sources of Threats; Sources of Survival, June 2010, available at: www.humanitarianfutures.org/publications/the-waters-of-the-third-pole-sources-of-threat-sources-of-survival/. For the Mekong delta, see “Requiem for a River”, The Economist, 13 February 2016, p. 47.

75 The tenor of the debate can be seen from two examples: a more peaceful resolution in Sudha Ramachandrum, “Water Wars: China, India and the Great Dam Rush”, The Diplomat, 3 April 2015, available at: http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/water-wars-china-india-and-the-great-dam-rush/; and a more pessimistic view in Joel Wuthnow, “This River Could Sink China–India Relations”, The National Interest, 19 April 2016, available at: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/water-war-river-could-sink-china-india-relations-15829.

76 US Department of Defense, 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Road Map, 13 October 2014.

77 Reference to Thomas Homer-Dixon in Bentley, Michelle, Weapons of Mass Destruction and U.S. Foreign Policy: The Strategic Use of a Concept, Routledge, London, 2014, p. 121.

78 This statement was made in response by a member of the Africom Team to this author's question during the Southern Africa Development Community workshop.

79 WHO, “Ebola Response: What Needs to Happen in 2015”, January 2015, available at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/one-year-report/response-in-2015/en/.

80 See European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, “Zika Virus Infection”, available at: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/zika_virus_infection/Pages/index.aspx#sthash.I0I8ZVNx.dpuf.

81 Donohue, Laura K., “Pandemic Disease, Biological Weapons, and War” in Sarat, Austin, Douglas, Lawrence and Umphrey, Martha Merrill (eds), Law and War, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA, 2014, p. 8.

82 Walker, Brian, et al. , “Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis”, Ecology and Society, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2015 .

83 Farhad Manjoo, “Why We Need to Pick Up Alvin Toffler's Torch”, New York Times, 6 July 2016.

84 Teal organizations are based upon the ability of an organization's staff to self-organize and self-manage in order to achieve the overall purpose of the organization. Rather than a hierarchical “plan and control” structure, the Teal structure consists of small teams that determine how best the team can achieve abiding organizational goals and how best individual team members can do so. It is a structure marked by its fluidity and adaptive capacities. The concept of the Teal organization can be found in Frederick Laloux, Reinventing Organisations: A Guide to Creating Organisations Inspired by the Next Stage of Human Consciousness, Nelson Parker Publishers, Brussels, 2014.

85 McChrystal, Stanley, Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World, Portfolio/Penguin, New York, 2015 .

86 Some of these sorts of concerns were mirrored in the UK's Iraq Inquiry report, referred to as the Chilcot Report, concerning decisions which led to the invasion of Iraq and subsequent post-war action. The report was presented on 6 July 2016. Committee of Privy Counsellors, The Report of the Iraq Inquiry, report, HC 264, 6 July 2016.

87 Clark, Christopher, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, Penguin, London, 2012, p. 555.

88 In this context, Professor Martin Rees quotes the long-time scientific adviser to the UK government, Solly Zuckerman, saying that “the basic reason for the irrationality of the whole process [of the arms race] … was shaped by technologists, not because they were concerned with any visionary picture of how the world should evolve, but because they were merely doing what they saw to be their job”. Rees, Martin, Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the 21st Century?, Basic Books, London, 2003, p. 32.

89 Iana Dreyer and Gerald Stang, “Foresight in Governments – Practices and Trends around the World”, Yearbook of European Security, 2013.

90 William J. Perry, My Journey at the Nuclear Brink, Stanford Securities Studies, 2016, as quoted in Jerry Brown, “A Stark Nuclear Warning”, New York Review of Books, 14 July 2016, p. 11.

91 See Simon, Herbert, “Rational Decision-Making in Business Organizations”, American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No. 4, 1979 . In the article, Simon describes the dimensions of “bounded rationality”, where individuals make rational decisions, though limited by the available information, the tractability of the decision problem, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the time available to make the decision.

92 Nik Gowing and Chris Langdon, Thinking the Unthinkable: A New Imperative for Leadership in the Digital Age, Chartered Institute of Management Accountants, London, 2016, p. 10.

93 Ibid .

94 In a 2015 report on The Future of Global Conflict: Trends and Challenges towards 2040, it was noted that “large state organisations and the international community have co-opted the language of critique, creativity and innovation without fundamentally altering their organisational logic”. Wilton Park Report WP 1374, in association with the UK Ministry of Defence and the Department for International Development, 18 February 2015.

95 Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, Public Affairs Books, New York, 2015.

96 A case in point were the parliamentary debates in the United Kingdom over the period of 2015–2016 concerning the renewal of the submarine-based Trident nuclear system. While the debates in Parliament and throughout much of Whitehall had immediate political and economic interests for various constituencies, it was a debate that nevertheless was about a system that would take twenty years to finalize, and one which in twenty years would be readily surpassed, for example, by extraterrestrial capacities.

97 Riel Miller, “Futures Literacy – Embracing Complexity and Using the Future”, Ethos, No. 10, October 2011, p. 25.

98 F. Laloux, above note 84.

99 Mitleton-Kelly, Eve, Complex Systems and Evolutionary Perspectives on Organisations: The Application of Complexity Theory to Organisations, Pergamon, Advanced Series in Management, London, 2003 .

100 Wouter Aghina, Aaron De Smet and Suzanne Haywood, “The Past and the Future of Global Organizations”, McKinsey Quarterly, September 2014.

101 Gates, Robert M., Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War, Allen, W. H., London, 2014, p. 449.

102 See, for example, Allison, Graham and Zelikow, Philip, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed., Longman, New York, 1999 ; and S. McChrystal, above note 85.

103 Wilton Park, above note 94.

104 Robert H. Waterman Jr. defined adhocracy as “any form of organization that cuts across normal bureaucratic lines to capture opportunities, solve problems, and get results”. For Henry Mintzberg, an adhocracy is a complex and dynamic organizational form. It is different from bureaucracy; like Alvin Toffler in Future Shock, Mintzberg considers bureaucracy a thing of the past, and adhocracy one of the future. Adhocracy is “very good at problem solving and innovations, and thrives in a changing environment. It requires sophisticated and often automated technical systems to develop and thrive.” See the definition of “Adhocracy” on Wikipedia, available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adhocracy.

105 Ben Hecht, “Collaboration is the New Competition”, Harvard Business Review, 10 January 2013. In a related context, a former chair of the British Standards Institute's Knowledge Management Statistics Committee, Ron Young, noted in a presentation concerning “Competitive Collaboration in a Global Knowledge Economy” (Abu Dhabi, 15–16 March 2011) that the real purpose of a European Commission-initiated project across European companies was not “the deliverables”, but was rather to set up projects to get organizations in different countries across Europe to collaborate. “We learned so much from this EC project about the power of effective virtual cross functional collaborative team work.”

106 M. Beard, above note 50. Emphasis added.

107 Ibid .

108 See “Extrajudicial Killing and Drones” in ‘Drone Strikes and International Law: Fallout Reaches the Ivory Tower”, The Economist, 22 April 2015. See also Peter Maurer interview, ‘‘The Use of Armed Drones Must Comply with Laws”, ICRC, 10 May 2013, available at: www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/interview/2013/05-10-drone-weapons-ihl.htm.

109 Mulgan, Geoff, The Art of Public Strategy: Mobilizing Power and Knowledge for the Common Good, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2009, p. 56.

110 Joyner, Christopher, International Law in the 21st Century: Rules for Global Governance, Rowman & Littlefield, New York, 2005, p. 119.

111 “A mess is a system or complex and dynamically interacting web of ill-defined or wicked problems, conundrums, paradoxes, puzzles, crises and their solutions, as well as the stated and understated, conscious and unconscious assumptions, beliefs, emotions and values that underlie these problems and solutions.” Alpaslan, Can M. and Mitroff, Ian I., Swans, Swine, and Swindlers: Coping with the Growing Threat of Mega-crises and Mega-messes, Stanford University Press, Stanford, 2008, p. 169.

112 Wilton Park, above note 94.

113 See, for example, Sloterdijk, Peter, Terror from the Air, trans. Patton, Amy and Corcoran, Steve, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2009 .

114 Mercer, David, Future Revolutions: A Comprehensive Guide to Life and Work in the Next Millennium, Orion Business Books, London, 1998, pp. 172 ff.

115 Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business, John Murray, London, 2013, p. 7.

116 D. Mercer, above note 114.

117 Additional examples can be found in Roger Bourke White Jr, Visions of 2050: Rise of the Cyber Muses, Author House, Bloomington, 2015.

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