Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities

  • Alisha C. Holland and Margaret E. Peters

Abstract

How do migrants decide when to leave? Conventional wisdom is that violence and economic deprivation force migrants to leave their homes. However, long-standing problems of violence and poverty often cannot explain sudden spikes in migration. We study the timing of migration decisions in the critical case of Syrian and Iraqi migration to Europe using an original survey and embedded experiment, as well as interviews, focus groups, and Internet search data. We find that violence and poverty lead individuals to invest in learning about the migration environment. Political shifts in receiving countries then can unleash migratory flows. The findings underscore the need for further research on what migrants know about law and politics, when policy changes create and end migrant waves, and whether politicians anticipate migratory responses when crafting policy.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Apodaca, Clair. 1998. Human Rights Abuses: Precursor to Refugee Flight? Journal of Refugee Studies 11 (1):8093.10.1093/jrs/11.1.80
Banerjee, Abhijit V. 1992. A Simple Model of Herd Behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (3):797817.10.2307/2118364
Barnett, Michael. 2011. Humanitarianism, Paternalism, and the UNHCR. In Refugees in International Relations, edited by Betts, Alexander and Loescher, Gil, 105–32. Oxford University Press.
Bhavnani, Rikhil R., and Lacina, Bethany. 2015. The Effects of Weather-Induced Migration on Sons of the Soil Riots in India. World Politics 67 (4):760–94.10.1017/S0043887115000222
Brooks, Sarah M., Cunha, Raphael, and Mosley, Layna. 2015. Categories, Creditworthiness, and Contagion: How Investors’ Shortcuts Affect Sovereign Debt Markets. International Studies Quarterly 59 (3):587601.10.1111/isqu.12173
Card, David. 1990. The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market. ILR Review 43 (2):245–57.10.1177/001979399004300205
Carlson, Melissa, Jakli, Laura, and Linos, Katerina. 2018. Rumors and Refugees: How Government-Created Information Vacuums Undermine Effective Crisis Management. International Studies Quarterly 62 (3):671–85.10.1093/isq/sqy018
Caughey, Devin. 2016. Package “NPC” R package version 1.1.0. Available at <https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=NPC>.
Caughey, Devin, Dafoe, Allan, and Seawright, Jason. 2017. Nonparametric Combination (NPC): A Framework for Testing Elaborate Theories. The Journal of Politics 79 (2):688701.10.1086/689287
Chari, V.V., and Kehoe, Patrick J.. 2003. Hot Money. Journal of Political Economy 111 (6):1262–92.10.1086/378525
Clemens, Michael. 2017. Violence, Development, and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central American Child Migrant Apprehensions. Center for Global Development Working Paper 459:155.
Cole, Harold L., and Kehoe, Timothy J.. 2000. Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises. The Review of Economic Studies 67 (1):91116.10.1111/1467-937X.00123
Davenport, Christian, Moore, Will, and Poe, Steven. 2003. Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964–1989. International Interactions 29 (1):2755.10.1080/03050620304597
Epstein, Gil S., and Gang, Ira N.. 2006. The Influence of Others on Migration Plans. Review of Development Economics 10 (4):652–65.10.1111/j.1467-9361.2006.00340.x
Fisman, Raymond. 2001. Estimating the Value of Political Connections. American Economic Review 91 (4):1095–102.10.1257/aer.91.4.1095
Fitzgerald, Jennifer, Leblang, David, and Teets, Jessica C.. 2014. Defying the Law of Gravity: The Political Economy of International Migration. World Politics 66 (03):406–45.
Granovetter, Mark. 1978. Threshold Models of Collective Behavior. American Journal of Sociology 83 (6):1420–43.10.1086/226707
Hangartner, Dominik, Dinas, Elias, Marbach, Moritz, and Matakos, Konstantinos. 2019. Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Make Natives More Hostile? American Political Science Review 113 (2):442–55.10.1017/S0003055418000813
Hopkins, Daniel J. 2010. Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition. American Political Science Review 104 (1):4060.10.1017/S0003055409990360
International Organization for Migration (IOM). 2016. Migration Flows from Iraq to Europe: Reasons Behind Migration. Available at <https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/migration-flows-iraq-europe-reasons-behind-migration-enarku>.
Marcus, Ruth, Eric, Peritz, and Gabriel, K. Ruben. 1976. On Closed Testing Procedures with Special Reference to Ordered Analysis of Variance. Biometrika 63 (3):655–60.
Massey, Douglas S., Arango, Joaquin, Hugo, Graeme, Kouaouci, Ali, Pellegrino, Adela, and Taylor, J. Edward. 1993. Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review 19 (3):431–66.10.2307/2938462
Moore, Will H., and Shellman, Stephen M.. 2004. Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952–1995. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):723–45.10.1177/0022002704267767
Moretto, Michele, and Vergalli, Sergio. 2008. Migration Dynamics. Journal of Economics 93 (3):223–65.
Neumayer, Eric. 2004. Asylum Destination Choice What Makes Some West European Countries More Attractive Than Others? European Union Politics 5 (2):155–80.10.1177/1465116504042444
Neumayer, Eric. 2005. Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe. International Studies Quarterly 49 (3):389410.10.1111/j.1468-2478.2005.00370.x
Papaioannou, Elias. 2009. What Drives International Financial Flows? Politics, Institutions and Other Determinants. Journal of Development Economics 88 (2):269–81.
Peters, Margaret E. 2017. Trading Barriers: Immigration and the Remaking of Globalization. Princeton University Press.
Portes, Alejandro, and Böröcz, József. 1989. Contemporary Immigration: Theoretical Perspectives on Its Determinants and Modes of Incorporation. International Migration Review 23 (3):606–30.
Schmeidl, Susanne. 1997. Exploring the Causes of Forced Migration: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1971–1990. Social Science Quarterly 78 (2):284308.
Shellman, Stephen M., and Stewart, Brandon M.. 2007. Political Persecution or Economic Deprivation? A Time-Series Analysis of Haitian Exodus, 1990–2004. Conflict Management and Peace Science 24 (2):121–37.10.1080/07388940701257523
Shrestha, Maheshwor. 2017. Push and Pull: A Study of International Migration from Nepal. Policy Research Working Paper 7965.10.1596/1813-9450-7965
Stanley, William Deane. 1987. Economic Migrants or Refugees from Violence? A Time-Series Analysis of Salvadoran Migration to the United States. Latin American Research Review 22 (1):132–54.
Zimmermann, Susan E. 2009. Irregular Secondary Movements to Europe: Seeking Asylum Beyond Refuge. Journal of Refugee Studies 22 (1):7496.

Keywords

Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Holland and Peters Dataset
Dataset

 Unknown
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Holland and Peters supplementary material
Holland and Peters supplementary material

 Unknown (1.8 MB)
1.8 MB

Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities

  • Alisha C. Holland and Margaret E. Peters

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.