Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-17T20:14:53.618Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Referendum on Trade Theory: Voting on Free Trade in Costa Rica

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 January 2013

Robert Urbatsch*
Affiliation:
Iowa State University, Ames. E-mail: rurbat@iastate.edu
Get access

Abstract

Research on mass opinion in international political economy overwhelmingly relies on survey data. This poses problems of external validity, especially for a frequently low-salience issue such as trade policy. To examine whether survey findings about attitudes toward economic openness apply outside of surveys, this note considers patterns of voting in the 2007 Costa Rican plebiscite about joining the Central American Free Trade Area. Several extant theories appear to explain voting patterns, but the results are less in line with traditional economic models based on locally important economic sectors.

Type
Research Note
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2013

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís, and Magalhães, Pedro C.. 2010. Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout. Public Choice 144 (1):6381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baccini, Leonardo, and Dür, Andreas. 2011. The New Regionalism and Policy Interdependence. British Journal of Political Science 42 (1):5779.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, Andy. 2005. Who Wants to Globalize? Consumer Tastes and Labor Markets in a Theory of Trade Policy Beliefs. American Journal of Political Science 49 (4):924–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, Andy, and Greene, Kenneth F.. 2011. The Latin American Left's Mandate: Free-Market Policies and Issue Voting in New Democracies. World Politics 63 (1):4377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barabas, Jason, and Jerit, Jennifer. 2010. Are Survey Experiments Externally Valid? American Political Science Review 104 (2):226–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beaulieu, Eugene, Yatawara, Ravindra A., and Wang, Wei Guo. 2005. Who Supports Free Trade in Latin America? World Economy 28 (7):941–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bendor, Jonathan, Diermeier, Daniel, and Ting, Michael. 2003. A Behavioral Model of Turnout. American Political Science Review 97 (2):261–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blonigen, Bruce A. 2011. Revisiting the Evidence on Trade Policy Preferences. Journal of International Economics 85 (1):129–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bochsler, Daniel. 2010. The Marquis de Condorcet Goes to Bern. Public Choice 144 (1):119–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Broz, J. Lawrence, Frieden, Jeffry, and Weymouth, Stephen. 2008. Exchange Rate Policy Attitudes: Direct Evidence from Survey Data. IMF Economic Review 55 (3):417–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carty, R. Kenneth, and Eagles, Munroe. 1999. Do Local Campaigns Matter? Campaign Spending, the Local Canvass and Party Support in Canada. Electoral Studies 18 (1):6987.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crisp, Brian F., Jensen, Nathan M., Rosas, Guillermo, and Zeitzoff, Thomas. 2010. Vote-Seeking Incentives and Investment Environments: The Need for Credit Claiming and the Provision of Protectionism. Electoral Studies 29 (2):221–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cupples, Julie, and Larios, Irving. 2010. A Functional Anarchy: Love, Patriotism, and Resistance to Free Trade in Costa Rica. Latin American Perspectives 37 (6):93108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cutler, Fred. 2007. Context and Attitude Formation: Social Interaction, Default Information, or Local Interests? Political Geography 26 (5):575600.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dobrzynska, Agnieszka, and Blais, André. 2008. Testing Zaller's Reception and Acceptance Model in an Intense Election Campaign. Political Behavior 30 (2):259–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrlich, Sean, and Maestas, Cherie. 2010. Risk Orientation, Risk Exposure, and Policy Opinions: The Case of Free Trade. Political Psychology 31 (5):657–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilbert, John, and Oladi, Reza. 2012. Net Campaign Contributions, Agricultural Interests, and Votes on Liberalizing Trade with China. Public Choice 150 (3):745–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Groves, Robert M., Presser, Stanley, and Dipko, Sarah. 2004. The Role of Topic Interest in Survey Participation Decisions. Public Opinion Quarterly 68 (1):231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra. 2009. Determining Trade Policy: Do Voters Hold Politicians Accountable? International Organization 63 (3):533–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens, and Hiscox, Michael J.. 2006. Learning to Love Globalization: Education and Individual Attitudes Toward International Trade. International Organization 60 (2):469–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansford, Thomas G., and Gomez, Brad T.. 2010. Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout. American Political Science Review 104 (2):268–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hiscox, Michael J. 1999. The Magic Bullet? The RTAA, Institutional Reform, and Trade Liberalization. International Organization 53 (4):669–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hiscox, Michael J. 2006. Through a Glass and Darkly: Attitudes Toward International Trade and the Curious Effects of Issue Framing. International Organization 60 (3):755–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobolt, Sara B., Spoon, Jae-Jae, and Tilley, James. 2009. A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament Elections. British Journal of Political Science 39 (1):93115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoffman, Michael E.S. 2009. What Explains Attitudes Across U.S. Trade Policies? Public Choice 138 (3):447–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J. 2011. National Debates, Local Responses: The Origins of Local Concern About Immigration in Britain and the United States. British Journal of Political Science 41 (3):499524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Irwin, Douglas A. 1994. The Political Economy of Free Trade: Voting in the British General Election of 1906. Journal of Law and Economics 37 (1):75108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Janus, Alexander L. 2010. The Influence of Social Desirability Pressures on Expressed Immigration Attitudes. Social Science Quarterly 91 (4):928–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jupille, Joseph, and Leblang, David. 2007. Voting for Change: Calculation, Community, and Euro Referendums. International Organization 61 (4):763–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahler, Miles. 1985. European Protectionism in Theory and Practice. World Politics 37 (4):475502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaltenthaler, Karl C., Gelleny, Ronald D., and Ceccoli, Stephen J.. 2004. Explaining Citizen Support for Trade Liberalization. International Studies Quarterly 48 (4):829–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keele, Luke. 2005. The Authorities Really Do Matter: Party Control and Trust in Government. Journal of Politics 67 (3):873–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary. 1996. Why Context Should Not Count. Political Geography 15 (2):159–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kingstone, Peter, and Young, Joseph. 2009. Partisanship and Policy Choice: What's Left for the Left in Latin America? Political Research Quarterly 62 (1):2941.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lassen, David Dreyer. 2005. The Effect of Information on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. American Journal of Political Science 49 (1):103–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lavine, Howard, Borgida, Eugene, Sullivan, John L., and Thomsen, Cynthia J.. 1996. The Relationship of National and Personal Issue Salience to Attitude Accessibility on Foreign and Domestic Policy Issues. Political Psychology 17 (2):293316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leduc, Lawrence. 2002. Opinion Change and Voting Behaviour in Referendums. European Journal of Political Research 41 (6):711–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne, and O'Halloran, Sharyn. 1994. Divided Government and U.S. Trade Policy: Theory and Evidence. International Organization 48 (4):595632.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magee, Christopher S.P., Davidson, Carl, and Matusz, Steven J.. 2005. Trade, Turnover, and Tithing. Journal of International Economics 66 (1):157–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Mutz, Diana C.. 2009. Support for Free Trade: Self-Interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out-Group Anxiety. International Organization 63 (3):425–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayda, Anna Maria. 2008. Why Are People More Pro-Trade Than Pro-Migration? Economics Letters 101 (3):160–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayda, Anna Maria, and Rodrik, Dani. 2005. Why Are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist Than Others? European Economic Review 49 (6):1393–430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCarty, Christopher, Killworth, Peter D., Bernard, H. Russell, Johnsen, Eugene C., and Shelley, Gene A.. 2001. Comparing Two Methods for Estimating Network Size. Human Organization 60 (1):2839.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Tingley, Dustin H.. 2011. Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy. International Organization 65 (1):3768.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naoi, Megumi, and Kume, Ikuo. 2011. Explaining Mass Support for Agricultural Protectionism: Evidence from a Survey Experiment During the Global Recession. International Organization 65 (4):771–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Rourke, Kevin H., and Sinnott, Richard. 2001. The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence. In Brookings Trade Forum: 2001, edited by Collins, Susan M. and Rodrik, Dani, 157206. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Pandya, Sonal S. 2010. Labor Markets and the Demand for Foreign Direct Investment. International Organization 64 (3):389409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth F., and Slaughter, Matthew J.. 2001. What Determines Individual Trade-Policy Preferences? Journal of International Economics 54 (2):267–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seligson, Mitchell A. 2002. The Renaissance of Political Culture or the Renaissance of the Ecological Fallacy? Comparative Politics 34 (3):273–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stratmann, Thomas. 2006. Is Spending More Potent For or Against a Proposition? Evidence from Ballot Measures. American Journal of Political Science 50 (3):788801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Takacs, Wendy E. 1981. Pressures for Protectionism: An Empirical Analysis. Economic Inquiry 19 (4):687–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Stefanie. 2010. Globalization and the Welfare State: Testing the Microfoundations of the Compensation Hypothesis. International Studies Quarterly 54 (2):403–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webb, Eugene J., Campbell, Donald T., Schwartz, Richard D., and Sechrest, Lee. 2000. Unobtrusive Measures. Rev. ed. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weller, Nicholas. 2009. Trading Policy: Constituents and Party in U.S. Trade Policy. Public Choice 141 (1):87101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar