The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England has a separate appraisal process for drugs for very rare conditions, i.e. Highly Specialised Therapies (HST). In April 2017, the HST process has been changed to incorporate a quantitative approach: automatically fund treatments with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICERs) up to GBP 100,000 (EUR 113,008 based on the 2018 average GBP / EUR exchange rate) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). For treatments with an ICER above GBP 100,000 per QALY, NICE will consider treatments that offer a substantial magnitude of improvement, with additional QALY weighting. We investigated the impact of this more quantitative approach on the likelihood of a HST receiving a positive recommendation.

All HST appraisals and draft guidance documents were reviewed (up to November 2018) and data were extracted on ICERs, incremental QALY gain, budget impact, and recommendations. The extracted data from each HST were assessed based on the interim HST guidance.

Eighteen products have been or are currently going through the NICE HST process. Of these, 8/18 (44%) have received a positive recommendation, while 5/18 (28%) have received a draft negative guidance, and for 5/18 (28%) products, no recommendations have been published. For the products with a positive outcome, 5/8 (63%) had incremental QALY gain of at least 10, qualifying these products for additional QALY weighting. For the products that received a draft negative recommendation, the negative decision was related to the cost-effectiveness estimates being higher than GBP 100,000 per QALY (5/5 reported) in all cases, while none of these products were eligible to receive a ‘QALY modifier’.

It has become more difficult for HSTs to get recommended by NICE under the new guidance, which requires cost-effectiveness analyses, whereas previously there was no official ICER threshold. The additional weighting of QALYs may be insufficient to meet an ICER threshold of GBP 100,000 per QALY for many products.