Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-qsmjn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T19:58:07.678Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Heir Apparent Prime Ministers in Westminster Democracies: Promise and Performance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 September 2018

Ludger Helms
Ludger Helms*
Affiliation:
Ludger Helms, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Austria
*
*Corresponding author. Email: ludger.helms@uibk.ac.at
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

While the grand narratives of political leaders and leadership in parliamentary democracies tend to centre on victorious campaigners, prime ministers ‘inheriting’ the office from their predecessor between two parliamentary elections are a widespread occurrence in constitutional practice. Focusing on four Westminster democracies (Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand), this article inquires how such heirs apparent have fared in terms of prime ministerial performance. Although in light of their experience, expertise and public recognition, heir apparent prime ministers can be, and have been, considered to be particularly well placed to succeed, when eventually securing the most powerful political office, most of them have actually been conspicuous under-performers. The single most important and strongly counter-intuitive finding of an empirical investigation of different prime ministers is that extensive experience in government, both in terms of duration and diversity of ministerial offices held, seems to correlate more with failed rather than particularly successful premierships.

Keywords

prime ministersleadershipperformanceheirs apparentWestminster democracies
Type
Articles
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 55 , Issue 2 , April 2020 , pp. 260 - 282
Copyright
Copyright © The Author 2018. Published by Government and Opposition Limited and Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Azzi, S and Hillmer, N (2016) Ranking Canada’s Best and Worst Prime Ministers. Maclean’s, 7 October 2016, www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/ranking-canadas-best-and-worst-prime-ministers.Google Scholar
Bennister, M (2012) Prime Ministers in Power: Political Leadership in Britain and Australia. Basingstoke: Palgrave.10.1057/9780230378445CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennister, M and Heppell, T (2016) Comparing the Dynamics of Party Leadership Survival in Britain and Australia: Brown, Rudd and Gillard. Government and Opposition: An International Journal of Comparative Politics 51(1), 134–159.Google Scholar
Bernstein, S and Rioux, J-P (2000) The Pompidou Years, 1969–74. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bogaards, M (2017) ‘Comparative Political Regimes: Consensus and Majoritarian Democracy. In Thompson W (ed.), The Oxford Encyclopedia of Politics, published online 1 March 2017, doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.6, pp. 1–31.Google Scholar
Borchert, J (2003) Professional Politicians: Towards a Comparative Perspective. In Borchert J and Zeiss J (eds), The Political Class in Advanced Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1–25.10.1093/0199260362.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bose, M and Landis, M (eds) (2003) The Uses and Abuses of Presidential Ratings. New York: Nova Science Publishers.Google Scholar
Brownlee, J (2007) Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies. World Politics 59(4), 595–628.10.1353/wp.2008.0002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bynander, F and ‘t Hart, P (2006) When Power Changes Hands: The Political Psychology of Leadership Succession in Democracies. Political Psychology 27(5), 707–730.10.1111/j.1467-9221.2006.00529.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bynander, F and ‘t Hart, P (2008) The Art of Handing Over: (Mis)Managing Party Leadership Successions. Government and Opposition: An International Journal of Comparative Politics 43(3), 385–404.10.1111/j.1477-7053.2008.00259.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, C (2001) The Vicious Circle of the Constricting State as Viewed through the Failure of Executive Leadership in Anglo-American Democracies. In Flynn P and Hodgkinson VA (eds), Measuring the Impact of the Nonprofit Sector. New York: Springer, pp. 81–101.Google Scholar
Carroll, B (2004) Australia’s Prime Ministers: From Barton to Howard, Kenthurst: Rosenberg.Google Scholar
Cordell, J (2005) Unity and Plurality in the French Right. South European Society and Politics 10(2), 191–206.10.1080/13608740500134861CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cross, WP and Blais, A (2012) Politics and the Centre: The Selection and Removal of Party Leaders in the Anglo Parliamentary Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199596720.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cross, WP and Pilet, J-B (eds) (2016)The Politics of Party Leadership: A Cross-National Perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
De Ferrari, I (2015) The Successor Factor: Electoral Accountability in Presidential Democracies. Comparative Political Studies 48(2), 193–230.10.1177/0010414014546442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esselment, AL, Lees-Marshment, J and Marland, A (2014) The Nature of Political Advising to Prime Ministers in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 52(3), 358–375.10.1080/14662043.2014.919731CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finer, SE (1997)The History of Government from the Earliest Times, 3 vols. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Genovese, MA, Belt, TL and Lammers, WW (2014) The Presidency and Domestic Policy: Comparing Leadership Styles, FDR to Obama, 2nd edn.New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Gordon, WL (1977) A Political Memoir. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart.Google Scholar
Green, J and Jennings, W (2017) The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/9781316662557CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grotz, F and Müller-Rommel, F (2015) Schwache Regierungschefs? Politische Erfahrung und Amtsdauer von Premierministern in Mittel- und Osteuropa. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 46(2), 310–327.10.5771/0340-1758-2015-2-310CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helms, L (2002) ‘Chief Executives’ and their Parties: The Case of Germany. German Politics 11, 145–164.10.1080/714001286CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helms, L (2016) The Politics of Leadership Capital in Compound Democracies: Inferences from the German Case. European Political Science Review 8, 285–310.10.1017/S1755773915000016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helms, L (2017) When Less is More: ‘Negative Resources’ and the Performance of Presidents and Prime Ministers. Politics, published early online, November, https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395717738964.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helms, L (Forthcoming) Performance and Evaluation. In Andeweg R et al. (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Political Executives. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hermann, MG (2003) Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis. In Post JM (ed.), The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 178–212.Google Scholar
Hillmer, N and Azzi, S (2011) Canada’s Best Prime Ministers. Maclean’s, 10 June 2011, www.macleans.ca/news/canada/canadas-best-prime-ministers.Google Scholar
Hillmer, N and Granatstein, JL (1997) Historians Rank the Best and the Worst Canadian Prime Ministers. Maclean’s, 21 April, pp. 34–39.Google Scholar
Horiuchi, Y, Laing, M and ‘t Hart, P (2015) Hard Acts to Follow: Predecessor Effects on Party Leader Survival. Party Politics 21(3), 357–366.10.1177/1354068812472577CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, CA (1976) Mr Prime Minister: Australian Prime Ministers, 1901–1972. Melbourne: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Jalalzai, F (2008) Women Rule: Shattering the Executive Glass Ceiling. Politics and Gender 4, 205–231.Google Scholar
Johansson, J and Levine, S (2013) Evaluating Prime-Ministerial Performance: The New Zealand Experience. In Strangio P, ‘t Hart P and Walter J (eds), Understanding Prime-Ministerial Performance: Comparative Perspectives. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 291–317.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199666423.003.0013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, CO (2008) Vice Presidents and Other Heirs Apparent: The Historical Experience of Experience. Presidential Studies Quarterly 38(3), 422–432.10.1111/j.1741-5705.2008.02653.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kincade, VR (2000) Heirs Apparent: Solving the Vice Presidential Dilemma. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Langston, J (2006) The Birth and Transformation of the Dedazo in Mexico. In Helmke G and Levitsky S (eds), Informal Institutions and Democracy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 143–159.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A (1984) Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.10.2307/j.ctt1ww3w2tCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A (2012) Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries, 2nd edn.New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Osborne, S (2017) Theresa May’s Leadership More Popular than Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair, Poll Reveals, Independent, 26 April, www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-more-popular-margaret-thatcher-tony-blair-leadership-uk-prime-minister-polls-latest-a7703591.html.Google Scholar
Pakulski, J and Tranter, B (2015) The Decline of Political Leadership in Australia? Changing Recruitment and Careers of Federal Politicians. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Rhodes, RAW and ‘t Hart, P (eds) (2014) Puzzles of Political Leadership. In ‘t Hart, P and Rhodes, RAW (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Political Leadership. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1–21.Google Scholar
Rhodes, RAW, Wanna, J and Weller, P (2009) Comparing Westminster. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rubinstein, WD (2003) Twentieth-Century Britain: A Political History. Basingstoke: Palgrave.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sands, C (2002) Escaping the Leadership Muskeg. Canada Focus 3(2), 1–9.Google Scholar
Shaw, R and Eichbaum, C (2014) Ministers, Minders and the Core Executive: Why Ministers Appoint Political Advisers in Westminster Contexts. Parliamentary Affairs 67(3), 584–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strangio, P (2013) Evaluating Prime-Ministerial Performance: The Australian Experience. In Strangio P, ‘t Hart P and Walter J (eds), Understanding Prime-Ministerial Performance: Comparative Perspectives. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 264–290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strangio, P, ‘t Hart, P and Walter, J (eds) (2013) Understanding Prime-Ministerial Performance: Comparative Perspectives, Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Theakston, K (2002) Political Skills and Context in Prime Ministerial Leadership in Britain. Politics and Policy 30, 283–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Theakston, K (2013) Evaluating Prime-Ministerial Performance: The British Experience. In Strangio P, ‘t Hart P and Walter J (eds), Understanding Prime-Ministerial Performance: Comparative Perspectives. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 221–241.Google Scholar
Theakston, K and Gill, B (2011) The Post-War Premiership League. Political Quarterly 82(1), 67–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
‘t Hart, P (2014) Contextual Analysis. In ‘t Hart P and Rhodes RAW (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Political Leadership. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 210–224.Google Scholar
‘t Hart, P and Uhr, J (eds) (2011) How Power Changes Hands: Transition and Succession in Government. Basingstoke: Palgrave.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
‘t Hart, P and Schelfhout, D (2016) Assessing Prime-Ministerial Performance in a Multiparty Democracy: The Dutch Case. Acta Politica 51(2), 153–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weller, P (1985) First Among Equals: Prime Ministers in Westminster Systems. London: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
Weller, P (2012) Fight, Flee, or Fulminate: Prime Ministerial Challengers, Strategic Choices, Rites of Succession. Political Quarterly 83(1), 152–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weller, P (2014) The Variability of Prime Ministers. In Rhodes RAW and ‘t Hart P (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Political Leadership. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 489–502.Google Scholar
Wilson, G (1994) The Westminster Model in Comparative Perspective. In Budge I and Kay DM (eds), Developing Democracy: Comparative Research in Honour of J.F.P. Blondel. London: Routledge, pp. 189–201.Google Scholar
Whitney, CR (1991) Gray Flannels or Not, John Major Is Riding the Crest of Popularity in Britain, New York Times, 28 February, www.nytimes.com/1991/02/28/world/gray-flannels-or-not-john-major-is-riding-the-crest-of-popularity-in-britain.html.Google Scholar
Worthy, B (2016) Ending in Failure? The Performance of ‘Takeover’ Prime Ministers 1916–2016. Political Quarterly 87(4), 509–517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar