The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (±s.d.) 59.8 ± 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop prediction models for self-reported symptomatic URI, LRI, and GI (past 2 months). We determined performance of the models by quantifying measures of discriminative ability and calibration. Overall, 953 individuals (31.0%) reported URI, 349 (11.4%) LRI, and 380 (12.4%) GI. The area under the curve was 64.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 62.6–66.8%) for URI, 71.1% (95% CI 68.4–73.8) for LRI, and 64.2% (95% CI 61.3–67.1%) for GI. All models had good calibration (based on visual inspection of calibration plot, and Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Social network parameters were strong predictors for URI, LRI, and GI. Using social network parameters in prediction models for URI, LRI, and GI seems highly promising. Such parameters may be used as potential determinants that can be addressed in a practical intervention in older persons, or in a predictive tool to compute an individual's probability of infections.

In July 2014, an outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred among visitors to lakes in Tampere, Finland. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using an internet-based survey, solicited by public announcement, to identify source of infection and to implement control measures. Of 1453 persons enrolled in the study, 244 met the case definition (attack rate, 17%). In the pooled univariate analysis, risk factors for gastroenteritis included getting water in the mouth while swimming (Risk ratio (RR) 3.32; 95% Confidence interval (CI), 2.36–4.68) and playing on the wet sand at the beach (RR 1.90; 95% CI 1.50–2.41). In a multivariable analysis (logistic regression), the source of the infection was likely at two lakes (lake A Odds ratio (OR) 1.66; 95% CI 1.15–2.39 and lake B, OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.49–3.72). Norovirus (NoV) was found in 19 stool samples. All water samples from implicated beaches had acceptable values of fecal indicator bacteria and were negative for NoV. The likely source of the outbreak was lake-water contaminated with NoV at two popular lakes. Closure of swimming beaches, advice on hygienic precautions and rapid outbreak alerts were efficient in controlling the outbreak. Results suggest a need for new indicators of water quality and development of evidence-based recommendations regarding timing of safe reopen of recreational water venues associated with outbreaks.

Norovirus (NoV) is a major cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity of NoV strains identified in children under 5 years of age with AGE in four provinces of Angola. Faecal samples from 343 children were screened for NoV by an in house real-time PCR assay and genotyping was performed by partial capsid gene sequencing. NoV was detected in 17.4% (58/334) of the samples, with high detection rates in children <6 months old (19%) and in children aged 12–24 months (23%). Genotype diversity was large, as demonstrated by the 11 identified genotypes. GII.4 was the predominant genotype (20% of all NoV-positive samples), followed by GII.6 (15%), GI.3 (12%), GII.7 (10%) and by other genotypes to a lesser extent. Two GII.4 variants, New Orleans 2009 and Sydney 2012, were detected and several genetic clusters were observed for genotypes GI.3, GII.6 and GII.7. The present study shows high detection rates and genetic diversity of circulating NoV genotypes in paediatric AGE samples from Angola. This information emphasises the importance of continuous assessment of NoV burden and evolution in the target population.

Management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) involves discontinuation of the offending antibiotic agent as soon as possible. However, the ongoing infection does not allow discontinuation of the offending antibiotic. We aimed to retrospectively investigate the predictors of treatment failure and impact of the concomitant use of systemic antibiotics in patients receiving metronidazole therapy. This study was conducted among patients hospitalised at a second care academic hospital from January 2013 to December 2014. Eligible patients were identified by reviewing stool toxin enzyme immunoassay results for C. difficile. Diarrhoea was defined as the passage of at least three loose or watery stools within 24 h. Among 314 patients with CDI receiving metronidazole therapy, 62 (19.7%) showed treatment failure and 105 (33.4%) received concomitant antibiotics. Underlying dialysis, fever >38.3 °C, low median serum albumin levels and concomitant use of antibiotics were independent predictors of treatment failure in patients with CDI receiving metronidazole therapy. The concomitant use of antibiotics increased the rates of treatment failure and 30-day mortality in patients receiving metronidazole therapy. These results suggest that metronidazole should be used in mild cases of CDI only after discontinuation of the offending antibiotics.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the distribution of cases and the social determinants associated with death from human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) and VL–HIV co-infection in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais state, Brazil, between 2006 and 2013. Descriptive statistics and analysis of associations were performed using chi-square of the raised variables, such as sex, age, skin colour and schooling of cases of HVL. During the study period, there were 866 cases of HVL with 111 deaths in Belo Horizonte. Morbidity and lethality rates (LR) of HVL in Belo Horizonte remained high over almost all the years evaluated, with an average incidence rate of 4.18 cases/100 000 inhabitants and a LR of 11.16%. With respect to skin colour, it was found that people characterised as black or mulatto had higher morbidity, followed by white. Regarding schooling, LR was more prevalent among individuals with lower education. One of the social risk factors was co-infection with HIV, which was present in many cases of HVL. Furthermore, it was found that older age and the male sex were also risk factors for death from HVL in Belo Horizonte.

Although serological assays have been widely used for the diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL), they present different performances depending on the clinical profile of the dogs. This study evaluated the accuracy of serological tests, immunochromatographic (Dual Path Platform: DPP®) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent (ELISA EIE®), for CVL in relation to the detection of Leishmania DNA through real-time polymerase chain reaction (real-time PCR) in samples from symptomatic and asymptomatic dogs from a non-endemic area in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. Serum from 140 dogs (39 symptomatic and 101 asymptomatic) was tested by DPP and ELISA followed by real-time PCR. From a total of 140 samples evaluated, Leishmania DNA was detected by real-time PCR in 41.4% (58/140). Moreover, 67.2% of samples positive in real-time PCR were positive in both DPP and ELISA (39/58), showing moderate agreement between methods. In the symptomatic group, one sample non-reactive in both serological assays was positive in real-time PCR, whereas in the asymptomatic group, 17.8% non-reactive or undetermined samples in serological assays were positive in the molecular method. Leishmania DNA was not detected in 17.9% reactive samples by serological assays from the symptomatic group, and in 3.9% from asymptomatic dogs. Real-time PCR demonstrated greater homogeneity between symptomatic and asymptomatic groups compared with DPP and ELISA. The molecular method can help to establish the correct CVL diagnosis, particularly in asymptomatic dogs, avoiding undesirable euthanasia.

The aim of the study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot (IB) for detecting antibodies of Neospora caninum in dairy cows, in the absence of a gold standard. The study complies with STRADAS-paratuberculosis guidelines for reporting the accuracy of the test. We tried to apply Bayesian models that do not require conditional independence of the tests under evaluation, but as convergence problems appeared, we used Bayesian methodology, that does not assume conditional dependence of the tests. Informative prior probability distributions were constructed, based on scientific inputs regarding sensitivity and specificity of the IB test and the prevalence of disease in the studied populations. IB sensitivity and specificity were estimated to be 98.8% and 91.3%, respectively, while the respective estimates for ELISA were 60% and 96.7%. A sensitivity analysis, where modified prior probability distributions concerning IB diagnostic accuracy applied, showed a limited effect in posterior assessments. We concluded that ELISA can be used to screen the bulk milk and secondly, IB can be used whenever needed.

In this study, we identified a multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) outbreak in a high school in northern China. The aim of this work was to describe TB transmission, drug resistance and treatment outcomes for this patient cluster. In January 2017, pulmonary TB was identified in a 17-year-old boy in northern China. Subsequently, a total of 11 TB cases were identified during 6-month follow-up of attendees of the same school. Of five students with latent TB infection (LTBI) receiving isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), two pulmonary TB cases (40.0%) emerged in March and April, for an active case rate not significantly different from that of the non-IPT group (4/16, 25.0%, P = 0.598). All TB patients were first treated with a standardised first-line treatment regimen administered by the local TB hospital, with 11 of 12 active TB patients exhibiting poor treatment outcomes. Further data demonstrated that all nine patient isolates collected during this outbreak were MDR-TB and shared a common genotypic profile. In conclusion, our data demonstrate that diagnostic delay for the index MDR-TB case of this outbreak played a primary role in transmission of MDR-TB infection within a school setting. Importantly, IPT failed to prevent progression of MDR-TB from LTBI to active TB.

The anticipated worldwide surge in urban environments is generating ever-greater interest in the study of host–pathogen interactions in this specific type of habitat. We investigated the potential of city-inhabiting rodents to serve as the main Lyme borreliosis agents (Borrelia spp.) reservoir. We also tried to verify if anthropogenic disturbances changing the vertebrate species community composition may also alter the scheme of Borrelia spp. circulation. A total of 252 Apodemus mice (A. agrarius, A. flavicollis, A. sylvaticus) were captured in Warsaw (Poland), at sites classified into different zones of anthropogenic disturbance, ranging from suburban forests to municipal parks strictly in the city centre. Borrelia spp. infection, ascertained based on bacterium DNA presence in the rodents’ blood, was found only in A. agrarius and A. flavicollis (7.6 and 6%, respectively). Only one species from the Borrelia genus – the mammal-associated species B. afzelii – was found in the mice studied. We found no statistical evidence of a correlation between infection in Apodemus mice and the zone of anthropogenic disturbance where the mice were caught. Non-homogeneous concentrations of Borelia spp. infected specimens within the strict city centre area suggest a lack of contact between members of particular mice subpopulations, and their responsibility for relatively high, but local Borrelia spp. infection.

This study aimed at evaluating the integrated measles and rubella surveillance system (IMRSS) in Apulia region, Italy, from its introduction in 2013 to 30 June 2016. Measles and rubella case reports were extracted from IMRSS. We estimated system sensitivity at the level of case reporting, using the capture–recapture method for three data sources. Data quality was described as the completeness of variables and timeliness of notification as the median-time interval from symptoms onset to initial alert. The proportion of suspected cases with laboratory investigation, the rate of discarded cases and the origin of infection were also computed. A total of 127 measles and four rubella suspected cases were reported to IMRSS and 82 were laboratory confirmed. Focusing our analysis on measles, IMRSS sensitivity was 82% (95% CI: 75–87). Completeness was >98% for mandatory variables and 57% for ‘genotyping’. The median-time interval from symptoms onset to initial alert was 4.5 days, with a timeliness of notification of 33% (41 cases reported ⩽48 h). The proportion of laboratory investigation was 87%. The rate of discarded cases was 0.1 per 100 000 inhabitants per year. The origin of infection was identified for 85% of cases. It is concluded that IMRSS provides good quality data and has good sensitivity; still efforts should be made to improve the completeness of laboratory-related variables, timeliness and to increase the rate of discarded cases.

This study evaluated the impact of maternal vaccination against rubella on the levels of specific rubella IgG (rIgG) in 198 newborn cord sera samples. Detailed maternal vaccination data were available. Specific rIgG was measured using a commercial enzyme immunoassay. Most mothers (78.8%) had been vaccinated against rubella at least once in their lives. In 15 (7.6%) cord sera samples, the concentration of specific rIgG was below 11 IU/ml, which was classified as seronegative. Statistical analysis using multiple logistic regression (n = 198) showed that newborns of mothers born between 1986 and 1995, and those born to unvaccinated mothers, were more likely to be seronegative (odds ratio (ORs) 5.2 and 4.9, respectively, adjusted for sex and gestational age). For vaccinated mothers (n = 156), those born between 1986 and 1995 were more likely to have seronegative newborns (OR 11.5 adjusting for sex, gestational age and time since last vaccination). Mothers of the 15 (7.6%) seronegative newborns might have been susceptible to rubella during pregnancy. Checking the vaccination status therefore recommended.

Retention in care is a key feature of the cascade of continuum of care, playing an important role in achieving therapeutic success and being crucial for reduction of HIV transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the rate of retention in care in a large referral centre in the North of Italy and to identify predictors associated with failed retention. All new HIV-infected subjects were consecutive enrolled from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2014. Demographics, immune-virological status, hepatitis co-infection and timing of initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) data were collected at baseline and at the time of last observation. Failed retention in care was defined as lack of laboratory data, clinical visits and drug dispensation for more than 6 months from the last visit. Cox regression analysis was used. Multivariate analysis of variables with P<0.05 in univariate analysis was performed. We enrolled 269 patients (mean age 46.1 years). Males were 197 (73%), Italian 219 (81%) with mean length of disease of 5.1 years. cART was prescribed for 257 patients (95%). The rate of retention in care was 78.4% and the rate of virological suppression was 75%. Predictors of being loss to follow-up were foreign origin (P = 0.048), CD4+ count <200/mmc (P = 0.001) and not being treated for HIV infection (P = 0.0004). Predictors of cART efficacy were shorter duration of HIV infection and baseline HIV-RNA <100 000 copies/ml. These findings underline the necessity to improve retention in care by identifying groups at increased risk of being loss to follow-up. Retention in care of vulnerable population is crucial to reach 90-90-90 UNAIDS endpoint.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is used in the triage of women with a borderline smear result. The efficiency of testing women with a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) and atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) is less clear. For this reason we used a new HPV test that detects E6/E7 messenger RNA (mRNA), which might have a higher specificity. The objective of this prospective study was to assess whether HPV E6/E7 mRNA positivity in women with ASCUS and LSIL at baseline, is able to predict those women who have a high risk of developing a histological cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2) or worse lesion. We took into consideration the women's age and HPV DNA genotype and followed them up for 3 years. Cervical samples from women with high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) DNA-positive ASCUS (n = 90) or LSIL (n = 222) were tested for the presence of HR-HPV E6/E7 mRNA and the women were monitored for the development of histopathologically verified CIN2+. Thirteen patients with ASCUS and 17 with LSIL did not complete follow-up. All patients with LSIL and ASCUS, enrolled in this study, had confirmed lesions at the colposcopic examination. Follow-up was available for 312 women, 193 were positive in the HR-HPV DNA test and 93 had a HPV E6/E7 mRNA positive test. Finally, 22 women positive in the HPV DNA test for high-risk genotypes and with positive E6/E7 mRNA had a histologically confirmed CIN2+. Only two cases with negative HPV E6/E7 mRNA had CIN2+. The study shows that women positive in the HPV E6/E7 mRNA test have a greater risk of malignant progression of cervical lesions and therefore deserve greater attention and earlier check-ups.

Acute respiratory infections cause significant morbidity and mortality accounting for 5.8 million deaths worldwide. In Australia, influenza-like illness (ILI), defined as cough, fever and fatigue is a common presentation in general practice and results in reduced productivity and lost working days. Little is known about the epidemiology of ILI in working-age adults. Using data from the ASPREN influenza surveillance network in Australia (2010–2013) we found that working-age adults made up 45.2% of all ILI notifications with 55% of samples positive for at least one respiratory virus. Viruses most commonly detected in our study included influenza A (20.6%), rhinovirus (18.6%), influenza B (6.2%), human meta-pneumovirus (3.4%), respiratory syncytial virus (3.1%), para-influenza virus (2.6%) and adenovirus (1.3%). We also demonstrated that influenza A is the predominant virus that increases ILI (by 1.2% per month for every positive influenza A case) in working-age adults during autumn–winter months while other viruses are active throughout the year. Understanding the epidemiology of viral respiratory infections through a year will help clinicians make informed decisions about testing, antibiotic and antiviral prescribing and when the beginning of the ‘flu season’ can be more confidently predicted.

Transmission of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and acute gastroenteritis (AGE) often occurs in households. The aim of this study was to assess which proportion of ARI and AGE is introduced and transmitted by children in German households with children attending child care. We recruited families with children aged 0–6 years in Braunschweig (Germany), for a 4 months prospective cohort study in the winter period 2014/2015. Every household member was included in a health diary and used nasal swabs for pathogen identification in case of ARI. We defined a transmission if two persons had overlapping periods with symptoms and used additional definitions for sensitivity analyses. In total, 77 households participated with 282 persons. We observed 277 transmission events for ARI and 23 for AGE. In most cases, the first infected person in a household was a child (ARI: 63%, AGE: 53%), and the risk of within-household transmission was two times higher when the index case was a child. In 26 ARI-transmission events, pathogens were detected for both cases; hereof in 35% (95% confidence interval (17–56%)) the pathogens were different. Thus, symptomatic infections in household members, apparently linked in time, were in 2/3 associated with the same pathogens.

Prolonged fatigue is increasingly reported among chikungunya virus (CHIKV)-infected populations. We investigated the relationships between CHIKV exposure, long-lasting rheumatic musculoskeletal pain (LRMSP) and chronic fatigue. 1094 participants (512 CHIKV seropositive and 582 seronegative) of the TELECHIK population-based cohort were analysed considering the duration of the manifestations throughout an average 2-year follow-up. Weighted prevalence rates and prevalence ratios for LRMSP, idiopathic chronic fatigue (ICF), and chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)-like illness, both latter syndromes adapted from Centers for Disease Control (CDC)-1994/Fukuda criteria, were compared. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were estimated to assess the contribution of CHIKV infection to each of the three phenotypes. Among 362 adult subjects who had reported either rheumatic pain or fatigue at the onset of the infection, weighted prevalence rates of LRMSP, ICF and CFS-like illness were respectively of 32.9%, 38.7% and 23.9%, and of 8.7%, 8.5% and 7.4% among initially asymptomatic peers (P < 0.01, respectively). Each of the three outcomes was highly attributable to chikungunya (PAF of 43.2%, 36.2% and 41.0%, respectively). In the sub-cohort of CHIKV-infected subjects, LRMSP, ICF and CFS-like illness, which overlapped in 70%, accounted for 53% of the chronic manifestations. In addition to rheumatic disease, chronic fatigue could be considered in caring for patients with chronic chikungunya disease.

Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) is a key member of TLRs, which is crucial in the initial inflammatory response against bacteria. TLR2, is also the initial barrier against bacterial infection and plays an important role in recognising a variety of bacterial lipoproteins. Several studies have been performed to investigate the TLR2 + 2477G/A polymorphism and bacterial meningitis susceptibility. Unfortunately, the results of previous studies were controversial. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of the association. The association between the TLR2 + 2477G/A polymorphism and bacterial meningitis susceptibility was assessed by odds ratios together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Six studies were enrolled in the present meta-analysis. Overall, no significant association between TLR2 + 2477G/A polymorphism and bacterial meningitis risk were found under allele contrast (A vs. G: OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.93–1.43, P = 0.202), recessive genetic model (AA vs. AG/GG: OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.90–1.41, P = 0.313). The significant association was found between TLR2 + 2477G/A polymorphism and pneumococcal meningitis risk under allele contrast (A vs. G: OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01–2.36, P = 0.046), recessive genetic model (AA vs. AG/GG: OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.03–2.57, P = 0.035). We conclude that TLR2 + 2477G/A polymorphism is not associated with meningococcal meningitis risk but contributes an increased risk of pneumococcal meningitis.

Community-acquired bacteraemia patients (n = 2472), Denmark, 2000–2008. Albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and haemoglobin (Hb) measured 2000–2010. We assessed daily mean levels of albumin, CRP and Hb from 30 days before to 30 days after bacteraemia and correlations between albumin vs. CRP and albumin vs. Hb. In linear regression models, we evaluated the contribution of CRP, Hb, chronic and acute variables to the albumin level variations. The mean albumin level (33.6 g/l) was steady before day 1, declined to 29.3 g/l on day 1 with little increase afterward. The mean CRP increased from day −5, peaked on day 1 and declined thereafter. The mean Hb level was fairly constant during days −30/30. Albumin was inversely (R range, − 0.18/–0.47, P < 10−4) correlated with the CRP level and positively (R = 0.17–0.46, P < 10−4) correlated with the HB level. In most models, CRP was the first variable that contributed to the albumin variations, 34–70% of the full model. The sudden decrease of albumin levels, without sudden fluctuations of CRP or Hb, indicated that hypoalbuminaemia was a marker of trans-capillary leakage.

The main objective of our study was to describe the epidemiological and microbiological features of an oligoclonal hospital-wide outbreak caused by OXA-48-producing Enterobacteriaceae (OXA-48-PE). OXA-48 is a carbapenemase belonging to Ambler class D beta-lactamases, identified frequently in the Mediterranean and Southern European countries, and associated with several Enterobacteriaceae species. An outbreak of OXA-48-PE with a complex epidemic pattern was detected in January 2011. Initial control measures included contact precautions and the reinforcement of infection control practices, but despite all efforts made, the epidemiological situation hardly changed and new measures were implemented during 2013. An observational retrospective study was performed to describe the main features of the outbreak and to analyse the cumulative incidence (CI) trends. Eight hundred and 16 patients colonised or infected by OXA-48-PE were identified during the 2-year period (January 2013–December 2014), female 46%, mean age (s.d.), 71.6 (15.2). The samples isolated in the incident cases were rectal swabs (80%), urine samples (10.7%), blood samples (2.8%) and other clinical samples (6.6%). The most frequent OXA-48-PE was Klebsiella pneumoniae. Eleven different clones were identified, but K. pneumoniae sequence types 11 and 405 were predominant: ST11 (64.2%) and ST405 (29.3%). OXA-48-PE CI trend suffered a statistically significant change in August 2013, which continued the following months. Though we could not eradicate the outbreak, we observed a statistically significant drop in CI after an intervention for OXA-48-PE control, based on patient cohort, active surveillance, electronic alerts and reinforcement of infection control measures in a tertiary hospital.