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Incubation period as a clinical predictor of botulism: analysis of previous izushi-borne outbreaks in Hokkaido, Japan, from 1951 to 1965

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2006

H. NISHIURA
Affiliation:
Department of Medical Biometry, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
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Abstract

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This study investigated 21 foodborne type-E botulism outbreaks, without antitoxin administration, from 1951 to 1965 in Hokkaido, Japan, to characterize the descriptive epidemiology and evaluate the relationship between case fatality and incubation period. The median (25–75% quartile) attack rate and case fatality, which were evaluated by outbreak, were 58·3% (38·0–73·2) and 25·7% (0·1–50·0) respectively. Individual records of 64 diagnoses, including 31 deaths, were also examined using logistic regression analysis, revealing that a shorter incubation period is likely to result in a significantly higher risk of death (P=0·01). The observed case fatality was more than 50% for those who developed symptoms within the first 18 h after exposure, possibly reflecting underlying dose-dependent mechanisms. In the event of intentional contamination of food with botulinum toxin, rapidly determining the incubation periods may be critical for guiding public health response efforts.

Type
Short Report
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press
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