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The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000–2010

  • A. M. GRJIBOVSKI (a1) (a2), A. KOSBAYEVA (a3) and B. MENNE (a4)

Summary

We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2–8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI −2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1–1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1–1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

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Copyright

Corresponding author

* Author for correspondence: Professor A. M. Grjibovski, Department of International Public Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Postbox 4404, Nydalen 0403, Oslo, Norway. (Email: andrei.grjibovski@fhi.no)

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Keywords

The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000–2010

  • A. M. GRJIBOVSKI (a1) (a2), A. KOSBAYEVA (a3) and B. MENNE (a4)

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