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How will climate variability interact with long-term climate change to affect the persistence of plant species in fragmented landscapes?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 November 2013

MICHAEL RENTON ,
NANCY SHACKELFORD  and
RACHEL J. STANDISH
MICHAEL RENTON*
Affiliation:
School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia, Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia Centre of Excellence for Climate Change, Forest and Woodland Health, Western Australia
NANCY SHACKELFORD
Affiliation:
School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia, Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
RACHEL J. STANDISH
Affiliation:
School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia, Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
*
*Correspondence: Dr Michael Renton Tel: + 61 8 6488 1959 Fax: +61 8 6488 1108 e-mail: michael.renton@uwa.edu.au
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Summary

As climates change, some plant species will need to migrate across landscapes fragmented by unsuitable environments and human activities to colonize new areas with suitable climates as previously habited areas become uninhabitable. Previous modelling of plant's migration potential has generally assumed that climate changes at a constant rate, but this ignores many potentially important aspects of real climate variability. In this study, a spatially explicit simulation model was used to investigate how interannual climate variability, the occurrence of extreme events and step changes in climate might interact with gradual long-term climate change to affect plant species’ capacity to migrate across fragmented landscapes and persist. The considered types of climate variability generally exacerbated the negative effects of long-term climate change, with a few poignant exceptions where persistence of long-lived trees improved. Strategic habitat restoration ameliorated negative effects of climate variability. Plant functional characteristics strongly influenced most results. Any modelling of how climate change may affect species persistence, and how actions such as restoration may help species adapt, should account for both short-term climate variability and long-term change.

Keywords

climate variabilityclimate changedispersalfragmented landscapesmigrationplant persistencesimulation modelspatially explicit
Type
THEMATIC SECTION: Spatial Simulation Models in Planning for Resilience
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 41 , Issue 2 , June 2014 , pp. 110 - 121
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2013 

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