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A Comparative Survival Analysis Between Evacuees and Nonevacuees Among Dialysis Patients in Fukushima Prefecture After Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Incident

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 May 2019

Shuhei Nomura*
Affiliation:
Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Jyoban Hospital, Tokiwakai Group, Fukushima, Japan Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
Yukie Matsuzaki
Affiliation:
Jyoban Hospital, Tokiwakai Group, Fukushima, Japan
Yuko Sato
Affiliation:
Jyoban Hospital, Tokiwakai Group, Fukushima, Japan
Jyunko Takasaki
Affiliation:
Jyoban Hospital, Tokiwakai Group, Fukushima, Japan
Yuki Sonoda
Affiliation:
Jyoban Hospital, Tokiwakai Group, Fukushima, Japan
Hiroaki Shimmura
Affiliation:
Jyoban Hospital, Tokiwakai Group, Fukushima, Japan
Yuko Kodama
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Education, Seisa University, Kanagawa, Japan
*
Correspondence and reprint requests to Shuhei Nomura, Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan (e-mail: s-nomura@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp).

Abstract

Objective:

There has been little research on the health consequences of evacuation in the disaster context. A comparative analysis of survival between evacuated and nonevacuated hospital dialysis patients was conducted following Japan’s Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant incident, which occurred on March 11, 2011.

Methods:

The study included 554 patients (mean age: 70.9) receiving dialysis therapy at one of the Tokiwakai Group hospitals—all of which are located in and around Iwaki City, approximately 50 km from the Fukushima nuclear plant—as of the incident date. The patients’ survival after the incident was tracked until March 3, 2017. Significant differences in mortality rates between postincident evacuees and nonevacuees were tested using the Bayesian survival analysis with Weibull multivariate regression.

Results:

Out of 554 dialysis patients, 418 (75.5%) were evacuated after the incident. The postincident mortality rate (adjusted for covariates) of evacuees was not statistically significantly different from that of nonevacuees. The hazard ratio was 1.17 (95% credible intervals: 0.77-1.74).

Conclusions:

If performed in a well-planned manner with satisfactory arrangements for appropriate selection of evacuees and their transportation, evacuation could be a reasonable option, which might save more lives of vulnerable people.

Type
Original Research
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 

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A Comparative Survival Analysis Between Evacuees and Nonevacuees Among Dialysis Patients in Fukushima Prefecture After Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Incident
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