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An Inter-regional US Blood Supply Simulation Model to Evaluate Blood Availability to Support Planning for Emergency Preparedness and Medical Countermeasures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 August 2017

Arianna Simonetti ,
Hussein Ezzeldin ,
Mark Walderhaug ,
Steven A. Anderson  and
Richard A. Forshee
Arianna Simonetti*
Affiliation:
Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD
Hussein Ezzeldin
Affiliation:
Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD
Mark Walderhaug
Affiliation:
Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD
Steven A. Anderson
Affiliation:
Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD
Richard A. Forshee
Affiliation:
Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD
*
Correspondence and reprint requests to Arianna Simonetti, PhD, Mathematical Statistician for Risk Assessment, Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Ave, Bldg. 71, Room 1236, Silver Spring, MD 20993-0002 (e-mail: Arianna.Simonetti@fda.hhs.gov).
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Abstract

Objectives

Planning for a response to threats like pandemics or mass casualty events is a national priority. The US blood supply system can be particularly vulnerable to such events. It is important to understand the impacts of emergency situations on blood availability and the resiliency of the US blood supply system.

Methods

On the basis of the Stock-and-Flow simulation model of the US blood supply system, we developed an inter-regional blood transfer system representing the action of multiple blood collectors and distributors to enable effective planning of strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions to the blood supply system in the event of a national emergency.

Results

We simulated a pandemic or mass casualty event on both a national and an inter-regional blood supply system. Differences in the estimated impacts demonstrated the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variations of blood collection and utilization across US regions. The absence of blood shortage in both emergency scenarios highlighted the resilience of the inter-regional system to meet the potential associated blood demand.

Conclusions

Our inter-regional model considered complex factors and can be a valuable tool to assist regulatory decision-making and strategic planning for emergency preparedness to avoid and mitigate associated adverse health consequences. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:201–210)

Keywords

blood supplyblood availabilityemergency preparednesspandemicmass casualty event
Type
Original Research
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 12 , Issue 2 , April 2018 , pp. 201 - 210
Copyright
Copyright © Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2017 

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