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Early identification of impending cardiac arrest in neonates and infants in the cardiovascular ICU: a statistical modelling approach using physiologic monitoring data

  • Sanjukta N. Bose (a1) (a2), Adam Verigan (a3), Jade Hanson (a3) (a4), Luis M. Ahumada (a5), Sharon R. Ghazarian (a5), Neil A. Goldenberg (a3) (a4) (a6), Arabela Stock (a7) and Jeffrey P. Jacobs (a1) (a2) (a3) (a4) (a5) (a6) (a7)...
  • Please note a correction has been issued for this article.



To develop a physiological data-driven model for early identification of impending cardiac arrest in neonates and infants with cardiac disease hospitalised in the cardiovascular ICU.


We performed a single-institution retrospective cohort study (11 January 2013–16 September 2015) of patients ≤1 year old with cardiac disease who were hospitalised in the cardiovascular ICU at a tertiary care children’s hospital. Demographics and diagnostic codes of cardiac arrest were obtained via the electronic health record. Diagnosis of cardiac arrest was validated by expert clinician review. Minute-to-minute physiological monitoring data were recorded via bedside monitors. A generalized linear model was used to compute a minute by minute risk score. Training and test data sets both included data from patients who did and did not develop cardiac arrest. An optimal risk-score threshold was derived based on the model’s discriminatory capacity for impending arrest versus non-arrest. Model performance measures included sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, likelihood ratios, and post-test probability of arrest.


The final model consisting of multiple clinical parameters was able to identify impending cardiac arrest at least 2 hours prior to the event with an overall accuracy of 75% (sensitivity = 61%, specificity = 80%) and observed an increase in probability of detection of cardiac arrest from a pre-test probability of 9.6% to a post-test probability of 21.2%.


Our findings demonstrate that a predictive model using physiologic monitoring data in neonates and infants with cardiac disease hospitalised in the paediatric cardiovascular ICU can identify impending cardiac arrest on average 17 hours prior to arrest.


Corresponding author

Author for correspondence: J. P. Jacobs, MD, 2021 Brightwaters Blvd., Saint Petersburg, Florida 33704. Tel: (727) 235-3100; Fax: (727) 551-0404; E-mail:


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The original version of this article was published with one incorrect author name. A notice detailing this has been published and the error rectified in the online and print PDF and HTML copies.



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Early identification of impending cardiac arrest in neonates and infants in the cardiovascular ICU: a statistical modelling approach using physiologic monitoring data

  • Sanjukta N. Bose (a1) (a2), Adam Verigan (a3), Jade Hanson (a3) (a4), Luis M. Ahumada (a5), Sharon R. Ghazarian (a5), Neil A. Goldenberg (a3) (a4) (a6), Arabela Stock (a7) and Jeffrey P. Jacobs (a1) (a2) (a3) (a4) (a5) (a6) (a7)...
  • Please note a correction has been issued for this article.


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