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Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections

  • Benjamin Allen Stevens (a1), Md Mujahedul Islam (a2), Roosmarijn de Geus (a2), Jonah Goldberg (a2), John R. McAndrews (a2), Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki (a3), Peter John Loewen (a2) and Daniel Rubenson (a4)...


What impact do local candidates have on elections in single member district plurality electoral systems? We provide new evidence using data from a large election study carried out during the 2015 Canadian federal election. We improve on the measurement of local candidate effects by asking over 20,000 survey respondents to rate the candidates in their constituency directly. We present three estimates. We find that when all voters are considered together, local candidate evaluations are decisive for approximately 4 per cent of voters. Second, these evaluations are decisive for the outcome of 10 per cent of constituency contests. Third, when models are estimated for each constituency, we find significant evaluation effects for 14 per cent of candidates.

Quel est l'impact des candidats locaux sur les élections de district dans les systèmes à scrutin majoritaire? Nous fournissons de nouvelles preuves à l'aide de données tirées d'une vaste étude réalisée lors de l'élection fédérale canadienne de 2015. Nous améliorons la mesure des effets sur les candidats locaux en demandant à plus de 20 000 répondents aux enquêtes d'évaluer directement les candidats dans leur circonscription. Nous présentons trois estimations. Nous constatons que lorsque tous les électeurs sont considérés ensemble, les évaluations des candidats locaux sont décisives pour environ 4% des électeurs. Deuxièmement, ces évaluations sont décisives pour le résultat de 10% des élections. Troisièmement, lorsque les modèles sont estimés circonscription par circonscription, nous constatons des effets significatifs de l'évaluation pour 14% des candidats.


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Allen Stevens et al. supplementary material
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