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SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CARROT WEEVIL, LISTRONOTUS OREGONENSIS (LECONTE) (COLEOPTERA: CURCULIONIDAE)

  • D.X. Zhao (a1), G. Boivin (a2) and R.K. Stewart (a1)

Abstract

A simulation model was developed for the population dynamics of a carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis (LeConte), population on muck-grown carrots. The model includes mortality rates of eggs, larvae, and pupae for different sowing dates of carrots. It also incorporates the overwintered adult density, the temperature-dependent growth rates of the above-mentioned life stages, the age-, temperature-, and phenology-dependent oviposition rates, and the impact of an egg parasitoid, Anaphes sordidatus (Girault), on egg mortality rates. Model output was evaluated by comparing simulated results with observed results on the seasonal totals and time of population peaks of the egg and larval populations. The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal egg totals were 3.1 ± 0.66 (SE) in 1987 and 1988, and 4.2 ± 0.05 in 1989. They were not statistically different. The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal larval totals were 10 ± 3.33 in 1987 and 1988 and 29.8 ± 0.66 in 1989. Independent data sets (i.e. field data in 1989) showed a significant increase in the simulation error of the larval population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that A. sordidatus had a large influence on the population dynamics of L. oregonensis.

Un modèle simulant la dynamique des populations du charançon de la carotte, Listronotus oregonensis (LeConte), en sol organique a été mis au point. Ce modèle utilise les taux de mortalité des oeufs, des larves et des pupes pour différentes dates de semis des carottes. Il utilise également la densité de population des adultes hivernants, le taux de croissance selon la température du charançon de la carotte, le taux d’oviposition selon l’âge, la température et la phénologie de la plante hôte ainsi que l’impact d’un parasitoïde des oeufs, Anaphes sordidatus (Girault), sur le taux de mortalité des oeufs du charançon de la carotte. Les résultats obtenus par le modèle ont été évalués en comparant des données simulées et observées pour les densités avec les pics de population d’oeufs et de larves. Les différences moyennes entre les populations prédites et réelles d’oeufs ont été de 3,1% (± 0,66) en 1987 et 1988 et de 4,2% (± 0,05) en 1989. Ces valeurs ne sont pas significativement différentes. Les différences moyennes entre les populations prédites et réelles de larves ont été de 10,0% (± 3,33) en 1987 et 1988 et de 29,8% (± 0,66) en 1989. Les données de champs indépendantes du modèle prises en 1989 ont démontré une augmentation significative de l’erreur dans l’estimé de la population larvaire. Des analyses de sensibilité ont indiqué que A. sordidatus a une influence importante sur la dynamique des populations de L. oregonensis.

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SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CARROT WEEVIL, LISTRONOTUS OREGONENSIS (LECONTE) (COLEOPTERA: CURCULIONIDAE)

  • D.X. Zhao (a1), G. Boivin (a2) and R.K. Stewart (a1)

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