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Bioclimatic assessment of abiotic factors affecting relative abundance and distribution of wheat stem sawfly (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in western Canada

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 September 2018

Owen Olfert ,
Ross M. Weiss ,
Haley Catton ,
Héctor Cárcamo  and
Scott Meers
Owen Olfert*
Affiliation:
Saskatoon Research and Development Centre, 107 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 0X2, Canada
Ross M. Weiss
Affiliation:
Saskatoon Research and Development Centre, 107 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 0X2, Canada
Haley Catton
Affiliation:
Lethbridge Research and Development Centre, 5403 1st Avenue South, Lethbridge, Alberta, T1J 4B1, Canada
Héctor Cárcamo
Affiliation:
Lethbridge Research and Development Centre, 5403 1st Avenue South, Lethbridge, Alberta, T1J 4B1, Canada
Scott Meers
Affiliation:
Crop Diversification Centre, 301 Horticultural Station Road East, Brooks, Alberta, T1R 1E6, Canada
*
1Corresponding author (e-mail: owen.olfert@agr.gc.ca)
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Abstract

Wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae), indigenous to North America, quickly adapted from host native grasses to wheat crops (Triticum Linnaeus (Poaceae)) with expansion of agriculture on the Great Plains of North America. Bioclimatic simulation tools, such as Climex, predict the potential geographic distribution and establishment of insects in ecosystems, based on climate. The ecoclimatic index, a measure of ecological suitability, integrates potential population growth with stresses to produce estimates of relative abundance. This simulation software was used to develop a bioclimate model for C. cinctus in western Canada. Results fostered a better understanding of how C. cinctus responded to selected climate variables. Two general circulation models were then applied to assess the response of C. cinctus populations to future climate. Relative to current climate, predicted changes in C. cinctus distribution and relative abundance were greatest for 2030, with a small further increase for 2070. Across the Prairies and Boreal Plains Ecozones, changes in ecoclimatic index were greater than in geographic distribution. Both general circulation models indicated most of this area would be categorised as very favourable. This suggests that the potential for pest populations could expand into areas that do not currently experience economic losses associated with C. cinctus.

Type
Behaviour & Ecology
Information
The Canadian Entomologist , Volume 151 , Issue 1 , February 2019 , pp. 16 - 33
Copyright
© 2018 Entomological Society of Canada. Parts of this are a work of Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 

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Footnotes

Subject editor: Cécile Le Lann

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