Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Base rates, stereotypes, and judgmental accuracy

  • David C. Funder (a1)

Abstract

The base rate literature has an opposite twin in the social psychological literature on stereotypes, which concludes that people use their preexisting beliefs about probabilistic category attributes too much, rather than not enough. This ironic discrepancy arises because beliefs about category attributes enhance accuracy when the beliefs are accurate and diminish accuracy when they are not. To determine the accuracy of base rate/stereotype beliefs requires research that addresses specific content.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Adair, J. G. (1984) The Hawthorne effect: A reconsideration of the methodological artifact, Journal of Applied Psychology 69:334–45. [aJJK]
Adler, J. E. (1994) More on race and crime. Journal of Social Philosophy 25:105–14. [JEA]
Aitchison, J. & Dunsmore, I. R. (1975) Statistical prediction analysis. Cambridge University Press. [GDK]
Ajzen, I. (1977) Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:303–13. [aJJK]
Allport, G. W. & Postman, L. J. (1945). The basic psychology of rumor. Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2(8):6181. [KJV]
American Psychiatric Association (1987) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, 3d ed., rev. [aJJK]
Anderson, N. H. (1986) A cognitive theory of judgment and decision. In: New directions in research on judgment and decision making, ed. Brehmer, B., Jungermann, H., Lourens, P. & Sevon, G.. North-Holland. [NHA]
Anderson, N. H. (in press) A functional theory of cognition. Erlbaum. [NHA]
Anderson, N. H., ed. (1991) Contributions to information integration theory: 1. Cognition. Erlbaum. [NHA]
Ashton, R. H. (1986) Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 38:405–14. [VLQ]
Ayton, P. (1993) Base rate neglect: An insider view of judgment? Psycoloquy 4(63) base-rate.5.ayton. [rJJK]
Bacchus, F., Kyburg, H. E. & Thalos, M. (1990) Against conditionalization. Synthese 85:475506. [HEK]
Balla, J. I., Iansek, R. & Elstein, A. (1985) Bayesian diagnosis in presence of preexisting disease. The Lancet 1:326–29. [aJJK]
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980) The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica 44:211–33. [aJJK, SEE, CCRM]
Bar-Hillel, M. (1983) The base rate fallacy controversy. In: Decision making under uncertainty, ed. Scholz, R. W.. Elsevier. [aJJK]
Bar-Hillel, M. (1990) Back to base rates. In: Insights in decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhom, ed. Hogarth, R. M.. University of Chicago Press. [arJJK]
Bar-Hillel, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1981) When do base rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41:671–80. [aJJK]
Bar-tal, D., Cravmann, C. G., Kruglanski, A. W. & Stroebe, W. (1989) Stereotyping and prejudice: Changing conceptions. Springer-Verlag. [DCF]
Bargh, J. (1994) The four horsemen of automaticity: Awareness, intention, efficiency, and control in social cognition. In: Handbook of social cognition, vol. 1, ed. Wyer, R. S. Jr, & Srull, T. K.. Hillsdale, NJ: LEA. [PF–B]
Barlow, J. H., Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J., eds. (1992) Tlic adapted mind. Oxford University Press. [FRP]
Baumeister, R. F. & Newman, L. S. (1994) Self-regulation of cognitive inference and decision processes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 20:319. [PF–B]
Beach, L. R. (1993) Broadening the definition of decision making: The role of prechoice screening of options. Psychological Science 4:215–20. [KMG]
Beach, L. R. & Mitchell, T. R. (1987) Image theory: Principles, goals, and plans in decision making. Acta Psychologica 66:201–20. [KMG]
Beck, P., Solomon, I. & Tomassini, L. (1985) Subjective prior probability distributions and audit risk. Jotimal of Accounting Research 23:3756. [LK]
Bergus, G. R., Chapman, G. B., Gjerde, C. & Elstein, A. S. (1995) Clinical reasoning about new symptoms despite preexisting disease: Sources of error and order effects. Family Medicine 27:314–20. [RMH, rJJK]
Beyth-Marom, R. & Arkes, H. R. (1983) Being accurate but not necessarily Bayesian: Comments on Christensen-Szalanski and Beach. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31:255–57. [SEE]
Beyth-Marom, R. & Fischoff, B. (1983) Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity. Journal of Personality and Sodal Psychology 45:1185–95. [aJJK, YK]
Biernat, M. (1993) Gender and height: Developmental patterns in knowledge and use of an accurate stereotype. Sex Roles 29:691713. [aJJK, JK]
Birnbaum, M. H. (1983) Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology 96:8593. [aJJK]
Bimbaum, M. H. & Mellers, B. A. (1983) Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45:792803. [aJJK]
Borgida, E. & Brekke, N. (1981) The base rate fallacy in attribution and prediction. In: New directions in attribution research, vol. 3, ed. Harvey, J. H., Ickes, W. J. & Kidd, R. F.. Erlbaum. [arJJK]
Borgida, E. & Nisbett, R. (1977) The differential impact of abstract versus concrete information on decisions, journal of Applied Social Psychology 7:258–71. [aJJK]
Braine, M. D. S., Connell, J., Freitag, J. & O'Brien, D. P. (1990) Is the base rate fallacy an instance of asserting the consequent? In: Lines of thinking, vol. 1, ed. Gilhooly, K. L., Leane, M. T. C., Logie, R. H. & Erdos, G.. Wiley. [aJJK, YK]
Brekke, N. & Borgida, E. (1988) Expert psychological testimony in rape trials: A social cognitive analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 55:372–86. [aJJK]
Brilmayer, L. & Komhauser, L. (1978) Review: Quantitative methods and legal decisions. University of Chicago Law Review 46:116–53. [aJJK]
Brunswik, E. (1956) Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments, 2d ed.University of California Press. [KJV]
Butt, J. (1988) Frequency judgments in an auditing-related task. Jotimal of Accounting Research 26:315–30. [aJJK, LK]
Calder, B. J., Phillips, L. W. & Tybout, A. M. (1981) Designing research for application. Journal of Consumer Research 8:197207. [rJJK]
Caldwell, R. A., Bogat, G. A. & Davidson, W. S. (1988) The assessment of child abuse potential and the prevention of child abuse and neglect: A policy analysis. American Journal of Community Psychology 16:609–24. [aJJK]
Cannon, C. K. & Quinsey, V. L. (1995) The likelihood of violent behaviour: Predictions, postdictions, and hindsight bias. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27:92106. [VLQ]
Camap, R. (1950) Logical foundations of probability. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [LJC]
Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A. & Graboys, T. B. (1978) Interpretations by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England journal of Medicine 299:991001. [aJJK]
Chaiken, S., Liberman, A. & Eagly, A. (1989) Heuristic and systematic information processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In: Unintended tlwught, ed. Uleman, J. & Bargh, J.. Guilford. [PF-B]
Chapman, L. G. & Chapman, J. P. (1959) Atmosphere effect re-exainined. journal of Experimental Psychology 58:220–26. [aJJK]
Cheney, D. L. & Seyfarth, R. M. (1990) How monkeys see the world. The University of Chicago Press. [FRP]
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1982) Experience and the baserate fallacy. Organization Behavior and Human Performance 29:270–78. [aJJK, SEE]
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1983) Believing is not the same as testing: A reply to Beyth-Marom and Arkes. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31:258–61. [SEE]
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1984) The citation bias: Fad and fashion in the judgment and decision literature. American Psychologist 39:7578. [aJJK, NHA]
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Bushyhead, J. B. (1981) Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 7:928–35. [arJJK, BAS]
Cobos, P., Lopez, F., Rondo, M., Femandez-Berrocal, P. & Almaraz, J. (1993) Connectionism and probability judgment: Suggestions on biases. In: Proceeding of the Fifteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, ed. Poison, M. C.. Hillsdale, New Jersey: LEA. [PF-B]
Cohen, L. J. (1977) The probable and the provable. Clarendon. [CDK]
Cohen, L. J. (1979) On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition 7:385407. [aJJK]
Cohen, L. J. (1981a) Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:317–31. [aJJK, LJC, TC]
Cohen, L. J. (1981b) Are there any a priori constraints on the study of rationality? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:359–67. [aJJK]
Cohen, L. J. (1981c) Subjective probability and the paradox of the gatecrasher. Arizona State Law Journal 1981:627–33. [aJJK]
Cohen, L. J. (1986a) Twelve questions about Keynes's concept of weight. The British journal for the Philosophy of Science 37:263–78. [LJC]
Cohen, L. J. (1986b) The role of evidential weight in criminal proof. Boston University Law Review 66:635–49. [rJJK]
Connell, J. (1985) Conditional reasoning processes and limited competence underlie the base rate fallacy in Bayesian probability judgment. Unpublished dissertation, New York University, NY. [aJJK]
Cosmides, L. (1989) The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Cognition 31:187276. [FRP]
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (1989) Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture: 2. Case study: A computational theory of social exchange. Ethology and Sociobiology 10:5197. [FRP]
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (in press) Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition. [arJJK, PF-B]
Cronbach, L. J. (1975) Beyond the two disciplines of scientific psychology. American Psychologist 30:116–27. [CK]
Darley, J. M. & Latane, B. (1968) Bystander intervention in emergencies: Diffusion of responsibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8:377–83. [aJJK]
Davidson, D. & Hirtle, S. C. (1990) Effects of nondiscrepant and discrepant information on the use of base rates. American Journal of Psychology 103:343–57. [aJJK]
Davis, J. & Solomon, I. (1989) Experience, expertise, and expert-performance research in public accounting. Journal of Accounting Literature 8:150–64. [LK]
Dawes, R. M. (1983) Is irrationality systematic? Comment on Cohen. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3:491–92. [RMD]
Dawes, R. M. (1988) Rational choice in an uncertain world. Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich. [YK]
Dawes, R. M. (1992a) Comment: Quandary: Correlation coefficients and contexts. In: Life crises and experiences of loss in adulthood, ed. Montada, L., Filipp, S. H. & Lerner, M. J.. Erlbaum. [RMD]
Dawes, R. M. (1992b) The importance of alternative hypotheses—and hypothetical counterfactuals in general—in social science. The General Psychologist 28(1):27. [RMD]
Dawes, R. M. (in press) Experimental demand, clear incentives, both, or neither? [RMD]
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D. & Meehl, P. E. (1989) Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science 243:1668–73. [aJJK, VLQ]
Dawes, R. M., Mirels, H. L., Cold, E. & Donahue, E. (1993) Equating inverse probabilities in implicit personality judgments. Psychological Science 4:396400. [aJJK]
De Keyser, L. & Van Herle, A. (1985) Hypothyroidism. In: Current diagnosis, 7th ed., ed. Conn, R. B., Saunders, W. B.. [aJJK]
De Croot, A. D. (1946/1965) Thought and choice in chess. The Hague: Mouton. [KJV]
Debate” (1991) Debate on statistics and evidentiary theory. Tulane Law Review 65 & 66. [aJJK]
Decision” (1991) Decision and inference in litigation. Cardozo Law Review 13:2531079. [aJJK]
Dubois, D. & Prade, H. (1988) Possibility theory. Plenum. [LRG]
Duncan, D. & Snow, W. C. (1987) Base rates in neuropsychology. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 18:368–70. [aJJK]
Duthie, B. & Vincent, K. R. (1986) Diagnostic hit rates of high point codes for the diagnostic inventory of personality and symptoms using random assignment, base rates, and probability scales. Journal of Clinical Psychology 42:612–14. [aJJK]
Ebbesen, E. B. & Konecni, V. J. (1980) On the external validity of decisionmaking research: What do we know about decision in the real world? In: Cognitive processes in choice and decision behavior, ed. Wallsten, T. S.. Erlbaum. [aJJK]
Eddy, D. M. (1982) Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Ktihneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]
Edgell, S. E. & Hennessey, J. E. (1980) Irrelevant information and utilization of event base rates in nonmetric multiple-cue probability learning. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 26:16. [SEE]
Edgell, S. E., Nahinsky, I. D., Dodd, C. H. & Barnes, J. M. (submitted) Does experience mitigate base rate neglect? [SEE]
Edwards, W. (1968) Conservatism in human information processing. In: Formal representation of human judgment, ed. Kleinmuntz, B.. Wiley. [NPM]
Edwards, W. (1990) Unfinished tasks: A research agenda for behavioral decision theory. In: Insights in decision making, ed. Hogarth, R. M.. University of Chicago Press. [aJJK]
Einhom, H. (1980) Overconfidence in judgment. In: New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Fallible judgment in behavioral research, ed. Shweder, R. & Fiske, D.. Jossey-Bass. [LK]
Einhom, H. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1981) Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Review of Psychology 32:5388. [arJJK]
Estes, W. K., Campbell, J. A., Hatsopoulos, N. & Hurwitz, J. B. (1989) base-rate effects in category learning: A comparison of parallel network and memory storage-retrieval models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 15:556–71. [BAS]
Evans, J. St. B. T. & Bradshaw, H. (1986) Estimating sample-size requirements in research design: A study of intuitive statistical judgment. Current Psychological Research and Reviews 5:1019. [arJJK]
Evett, I. W. (1986) A Bayesian approach to the problem of interpreting glass evidence in forensic science casework. Journal of the Forensic Science Society 26:318. [aJJK]
Fagley, N. S. (1988) Judgmental heuristics: Implications for the decision making of school psychologists. School Psychology Review 17:311–21. [aJJK]
Fernandez-Berrocal, P., Lopez, F., Segura, S. & Almaraz, J. (1993) Es la cognicion social bayesiana? (Is social cognition Bayesian?) In: Epistemologia y procesos psicosociales basicos, ed. Fernandez, I. & Martinez, M.. Madrid: Eudema. [PF-B]
Fienberg, S. E. (1986) Misunderstanding beyond a reasonable doubt. Boston University Law Review 66:651–56. [rJJK]
Fienberg, S. E. & Schervish, M. J. (1986) The relevance of Bayesian inference for the presentation of evidence and for legal decision making. Boston University Law Review 66:771–98. [aJJK]
Finkelstein, M. O. (1978) Quantitative methods in law. Free Press. [aJJK]
Finkelstein, M. & Fairly, W. (1970) A Baysesian approach to identification evidence. Harvard Law Review 83:489517. [aJJK]
Fischoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984) Diagnosticity and the base-rate effect. Memory and Cognition 12:402–10. [aJJK]
Fischoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983) Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review 90:239–60. [arJJK]
FischofT, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1979) Subjective sensitivity analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 23:339–59. [aJJK, NHA]
Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H. & Nisbett, R. E. (1986) The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cognitive Psychology 18:253–92. [aJJK]
Frisch, D. & Clemen, R. T. (1994) Beyond expected utility: Rethinking behavioral decision research. Psychological Bulletin 116:4654. [KMC]
Fuller, M. & McLeod, P. J. (1995) Judgements of control over a contingently responsive animation by students with and without learning disabilities. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27(2):171–86. [PJM]
Funder, D. C. (1987) Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment1. Psychological Bulletin 101:7590. [aJJK]
Funder, D. C. (1993) Judgments as data from personality and developmental psychology: Error versus accuracy. In: Studying lives through time: Approaches to personality and development, ed. Funder, D. C., Parke, R., Tomlinson-Keasey, C. & Widaman, K.. American Psychological Association. [aJJK]
Funder, D. C. (1994) Accuracy theory. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Riverside, CA. [aJJK]
Funder, D. C. (in press a) On the accuracy of personality judgment: A realistic approach. Psychological Review. [DCF]
Funder, D. C. (in press b) Stereotypes, base-rates, and the fundamental attribution mistake: Towards a content-based approach to judgmental accuracy. In: Are stereotypes inaccurate? A neglected issue in intergroup relations, ed. Lee, Y.-T., Jussim, L. & McCauley, C.. American Psychological Association. [DCF]
Gabrenya, W. K. & Arkin, R. M. (1979) Motivation, heuristics, and the psychology of prediction. Motivation and Emotion 3:117. [aJJK, FRP]
Galotti, K. M. (1989) Approaches to studying formal and everyday reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 105:331–51. [KMG]
Galotti, K. M. (in press) A longitudinal study of real-life decision making: Choosing a college. Applied Cognitive Psychology. [KMG]
Gavanski, I. & Hui, C. (1992). Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63:766–80. [aJJK, YK]
Gibson, J. J. (1967/1982) Autobiography. In: Reasons for realism: Selected essays of James J. Gibson, ed. Reed, E. & Jones, R.. Erlbaum. [KJV]
Gigerenzer, G. (1991) How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristic and biases.” European Review of Social Psychology 2:83115. [aJJK, PF-B]
Gigerenzer, G. (1994) Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In: Subjective probability, ed. Wright, G. & Ayton, P.. Wiley. [arJJK, PF-B]
Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988) Presentation and content: the use of base rates us a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 14:513–25. [aJJK, GK]
Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (in press a) How to make the mind reason the Bayesian way. Psychological Review. [aJJK]
Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (in press b) How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instructions: Frequency formats. Psychological Review. [rJJK]
Cigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U. & Kleinbolting, H. (1991) Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98:506–28. [aJJK]
Gillespie, R. (1991) Manufacturing knowledge: A history of the Hawthorne experiments. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]
Gilovich, T. (1990) How we know what isn't so? Free Press. [FRP]
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. & Tversky, A. (1985) The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology 17:295313. [aJJK]
Ginossar, Z. & Trope, Y. (1980) The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 16:228–42. [aJJK]
Ginossar, Z. & Trope, Y. (1987) Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52:464–73. [arJJK]
Gluck, M. A. & Bower, C. (1988) From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:227–47. [PF-B, BAS]
Goodie, A. S. & Fantino, E. (1995) An experientially derived base-rate error in humans. Psychological Science 6:101–6. [BAS]
Gottfredson, D. M., Wilkins, L. T. & Hoffman, P. B. (1978) Guidelines for parole and sentencing: A policy control method. Toronto: Lexington Books. [VLQ]
Graham, J. D. (1989) Communicating about chemical hazards. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8:307–13. [LRG]
Grether, D. M. (1980) Bayes rule as a descriptive model: The representativeness heuristic. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 95:537–57. [aJJK]
Griffin, D. & Tversky, A. (1992) The weighing of evidence and the determination of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24:411–35. [JEA]
Hamilton, D. L. (1981) Cognitive processes in stereotyping and intergroup behavior. Erlbaum. [DCF]
Hamilton, M. M. (1984) An examination of processing factors affecting the availability of consumer testimonial information in memory. Unpublished dissertation, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD. [aJJK, JK]
Hamm, R. M. (1987) Diagnostic inference: People's use of information in incomplete Bayesian word problems [Publication No. 87–11]. Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO. [RMH]
Hamm, R. M. (1993) Explanations for common responses to the blue/green cab probabilistic inference word problem Psychological Reports 72:219–42. [arJJK]
Hamm, R. M. (1994) Underweighting of base-rate information reflects important difficulties people have with probabilistic inference. Psycoloquy 5(3) baserate. 7.hamm. [RMH, rJJK]
Hamm, R. M. & Zubialde, J. (1995) Physicians' expert cognition and the problem of cognitive biases. Primary Care 22:181212. [RMH]
Hanson, R. D. & Donoghue, J. M. (1977) the power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:294302. [aJJK]
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Quinsey, V. L. (1993) Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior 20:315–35. [VLQ]
Hasher, L. & Zacks, R. T. (1984) Automatic processing of fundamental information: The case of frequency of occurrence. American Psychologist 39:1372–88. [BAS]
Hastie, R. (1983) Social inference. Annual Review of Psychology 34:511–42. [aJJK]
Hempel, C. G. (1965) Asfiects of scientific explanation. Free Press. [LJC]
Hilton, J. L. & Fein, S. (1989) The role of diagnosticity in stereotype-based judgments. journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57:201–11. [aJJK, JK]
Hinsz, V. B., Tindale, R. S., Nagao, D. H., Davis, J. H. & Robertson, B. A. (1988) The influence of the accuracy of individuating information on the use of base rate information in probability judgment. Journal of Experimentnl Social Psychology 24:127–45. [aJJK]
Hinsz, V. G. & Davidson, D. J. (1993) Contextual influences of within-suhjects designs on base rate type problems. Paper presented at the meeting of the Judgment and Decision Making Society (11, 1993), Washington, DC. [aJJK]
Hintzman, D. L., Nozawa, C. & Irmscher, M. (1982) Frequency as a nonpropositional attribute of memory. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 21:127–41. [aJJK]
Hogarth, R. M. (1986) Beyond discrete biases. In: Judgment and decision making, ed. Arkes, H. R. & Hammond, K. R.. Cambridge University Press. [JEA]
Hogarth, R. M. (1987) Judgement and choice, 2d ed.Wiley. [aJJK]
Hogarth, R. M. & Einhom, H. J. (1992) Order effect in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology 24:155. [aJJK]
Holland, J. H., Holyoak, K. J., Nisbett, R. E. & Thagard, P. R. (1986) Induction: Processes of inference, learning, and discovery. MIT Press. [YK]
Holyoak, K. J. & Spellman, B. A. (1993) Thinking. Annual Review of Psychology 44:265315. [aJJK, PF-B, BAS]
Iwasa, Y., Higashi, M. & Yamamura, M. (1981) Prey distribution as a factor determining the choice of optimal foraging strategy. American Naturalist 117:710–23. [LRG]
Jepson, C., Krantz, D. H. & Nisbett, R. E. (1983) Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3:494501. [aJJK]
Johnson, V. & Kaplan, S. (1991) Experimental evidence on the effects of accountability on auditor judgments. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 10(Suppl.):96107. [LK]
Johnson, W. (1983) “Representativeness” in judgmental predictions of corporate bankruptcy. The Accounting Review 58:7897. [LK]
Jonakait, R. N. (1983) When blood is their argument: Probabilities in criminal cases, genetic markers, and, once again, Bayes Theorem. University of Illinois Law Review 1983:369421. [aJJK]
Jones, S. K., Jones, K. T. & Frisch, D. (1995) Biases of probability assessment: A comparison of frequency and single case judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 61:109–22. [rJJK]
Jones, S. R. C. (1992) Was there a Hawthorne effect? American Journal of Sociology 98:451–68. [aJJK]
Joyce, E. & Biddle, G. (1981) Are auditors' judgments sufficiently regressive? Journal of Accounting Research 19:323–49. [aJJK, LK]
Kahneman, D. (1991) Judgment and decision making: A personal view. Psychological Science 2:142–45. [BJG]
Kahneman, D. & Lovallo, D. (1993) Bold forecasting and timid decisions: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science 39:1731. [rJJK]
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972) Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psyclwlogy 3: 430–54. [arJJK, SEE, DCF]
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80:237–51. [aJJK, DCF, GK, GDK, LK, YK, PJM]
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (in press) On the reality of cognitive illusion: A reply to Gigerenzer's critique. Psychological Review. [rJJK]
Kassin, S. M. (1979) Base rates and prediction: The role of sample size. Personality and Social Psyclwlogy Bulletin 5:210–13. [aJJK]
Kaye, D. H. (1979) The paradox of die gatecrasher and other stories. Arizona State University Law Journal 101:101–9. [aJJK]
Kaye, D. H. (1981) Paradoxes, gedanken experiments and the burden of proof: A response to Dr. Cohen's replay. Arizona State Law Journal 1981:635–45. [aJJK]
Kaye, D. H. (1986) Do we need a calculus of weight to understand proof beyond a reasonable doubt? Boston University Law Review 66:657–72. [rJJK]
Kaye, D. H. (1989) The probability of an ultimate issue: The strange case of paternity testing. Iowa Law Review 75:75109. [aJJK]
Kaye, D. H. & Koehler, J. J. (1991) Can jurors understand probabilistic evidence? Joumal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:7581 [aJJK]
Keynes, J. M. (1921) A treatise on probability. Macmillan. [LJC]
Kida, T. (1984) The effect of causality and specificity on data use. Journal of Accounting Research 22:145–52. [LK]
Klar, Y. (1990) Linking structures and sensitivity to judgment-relevant information in statistical and logical reasoning tasks. Jou mal of Personality and Social Psychology 59:841–58. [YK]
Klar, Y. & Liberman, N. (unpublished) Exclusivity, typicality, and hypothesis testing: Do people judge by representativeness? Unpublished manuscript, Tel-Aviv University. [YK]
Klar, Y. & Pessach, R. (unpublished) Necessity, sufficiency and dispositional inference. Unpublished manuscript, Tel-Aviv University. [YK]
Klein, G. A., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R. & Zsambok, C. E. (1993). Decision making in action: Models and methods. Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [KJV]
Kleiter, G. D. (1992) Bayesian diagnosis in expert systems. Artificial Intelligence 54:132. [GDK]
Kleiter, G. D. (1994a) Natural sampling: Rationality without base rates. In: Contributions to mathematical psychology, psychometrics and methodology, ed. Fischer, C. & Laming, D.. Springer-Verlag. [GDK]
Kleiter, G. D. (1994b) Propagating imprecise probabilities in Bayesian networks. In: Proceedings of the Third Workshop) on Uncertainty Processing in Expert Systems, ed. Kramosil, I., Lauritzen, S., Naeve, P., Scozzafava, R., & Smets, P.. Trest, Czech Republic. [GDK]
Koehler, J. J. (1991) The probity-policy distinction in the statistical evidence debate. Tulanc Law Review 66:141–50. [aJJK]
Koehler, J. J. (1992) Probabilities in the courtroom: An evaluation of the objections and policies. Handbook of psychology and law, ed. Kagehiro, D. K. & Laufer, W. S.. Springer-Verlag. [arJJK]
Koehler, J. J. (1993a) The normative status of base rates at trial. Individual and group decision making, ed. Castellan, N. J.. Erlbaum. [arJJK]
Koehler, J. J. (1993b) Error and exaggeration in the presentation of DNA evidence. Jurimetrics journal 34:2139. [aJJK]
Koehler, J. J. (1993c) DNA matches and statistics: Important questions, surprising answers. Judicature 76:222–29. [aJJK, CRC]
Koehler, J. J. (1993d) The influence of prior beliefs on scientific judgments of evidence quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 56:2855. [aJJK]
Koehler, J. J., Chia, A. & Lindsey, S. (1995) The random match probability in DNA evidence: Irrelevant and prejudicial? Jurimetrics Journal 35:201–19. [arJJK]
Koehler, J. J., Gibbs, B. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1994) Shattering the illusion of control: Multi-shot versus single-shot gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7:183–91. [aJJK]
Koehler, J. J. & Shaviro, D. N. (1990) Veridical verdicts: Increasing verdict accuracy through the use of overtly probabilistic evidence and methods. Cornell Law Review 75:247–79. [aJJK, CRC]
Koonce, L. L. (1993) Base rate usage in accounting. Psycoloquy 4(51) baserate.3.koonce. [aJJK]
Krante, D. H. (1981) Improvements in human reasoning and an error in Cohen's, L. J.. Behavior and Brain Sciences 4:340–41. [aJJK]
Krueger, J. & Rothbart, M. (1988) Use of categorical and individuating information in making inferences about personality. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 55:187–95. [aJJK, JK]
Kruschke, J. K. (1994) The role of base rates in category learning (Research Report No. 115). Indiana University. [PF-B]
Kuhn, T. (1962/1970) The structure of scientific revolutions, 2d ed.University of Chicago Press. [aJJK, BJC, JK]
Kyburg, H. E. Jr, (1983) Rational belief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6(2):231–75. [HEK, rJJK]
Langer, E. J. (1975) The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:311–28. [aJJK]
Lanning, K. (1987) Some reasons for distinguishing between ‘non-normative response’ and ‘irrational decision.’ The Journal of Psychology 12:109–17. [aJJK]
Lehman, D. R., Lempert, R. O. & Nisbett, R. E. (1988) The effects of graduate training on reasoning: formal discipline and thinking about every-day life events. American Psychologist 43:431–42. [aJJK]
Leon, M. & Anderson, N. H. (1974) A ratio rule from integration theory applied to inference judgments. Journal of Experimental Psychology 102:2736. [NHA]
Levi, I. (1981) Should Bayesians sometimes neglect base rates? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:342–43. [aJJK]
Labby, R. (1985) Availability and the generation of hypotheses in analytical review. Journal of Accounting Research 23:648–67. [LK]
Libby, R. & Frederick, D. (1990) Experience and the ability to explain audit findings. Journal of Accounting Research 28:348–67. [LK]
Lindeman, S. T., Van Den Brink, W. P. & Hoogstraten, J. (1988) Effect of feedback on base-rate utilization. Perceptual and Motor Skilk 67:343–50. [aJJK]
LindJey, D. V. (1982) Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability. International Statistical Review 50:126. [LRG]
Lippman, W. (1922) Public opinion. Harcourt Brace. [DCF]
Locksley, A., Borgida, E., Brekke, N. & Hepburn, C. (1980) Sex stereotypes and social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39:821–31. [aJJK, JK, CM]
Locksley, A., Hepburn, C. & Ortiz, V. (1982) Social stereotypes and judgments of individuals: An instance of the base-rate fallacy. Journal of Experimental ocial Psychology 18:2342. [aJJK]
Lopes, L. L. (1983) Normative theories of rationality: Occam's razor, Procrustes'bed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6:255–56. [rJJK]
Lopes, L. L. (1987) Procedural debiasing. Ada Psychologica 64:167–85. [aJJK]
Lopes, L. L. (1991) The rhetoric of irrationality. Theory and Psychology 1:65.82. [aJJK]
Lynch, J. C. & Ofir, C. (1989) Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56:170–81. [aJJK, NPM]
Lyon, D. & Slovic, P. (1976) Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation. Ada Psychologica 40:287–98. [aJJK]
Macchi, L. (1994) On the communication and comprehension of probabilistic information: Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(11) baserate. 11.macchi. [aJJK]
Macchi, L. (1995) Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy. Quarterly Journal of xperimental Psychology 48A(1):188207. [aJJK]
Manis, M., Dovalina, I., Avis, N. E. & Cardoze, S. (1980) Base rates can affect individual predictions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 38:231–48. [aJJK, SEE, BAS]
Manis, M. (1981) Reply to Bar-Hillel and Fischoff1. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41:681–83. [aJJK]
Margolis, H. (1987) Patterns, thinking, and cognition: A theory of judgment. University of Chicago Press. [aJJK, HM]
Margolis, H. (1996) Dealing with risk: Why the public and the exjierts disagree. University of Chicago Press. [HM]
Maynard Smith, J. (1982) Evolution and the theory of games. Cambridge University Press. [LRG]
Mayo, E. (1933) The human problems of an industrial civilization1. Macmillan. [KJV]
McCauley, C. (1994) Stereotypes as base rate predictions: Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(5) base-rate.8.mccauley. [CM]
McCauley, C., Stitt, C. L. & Segal, M. (1980). Stereotyping: From prejudice to prediction. Psychological Bulletin 87:195208. [CM]
McDaniel, L. (1990) The effects of time pressure and audit program structure on audit performance1. Journal of Accounting Research 28:267–87. [LK]
McGuire, T. W. & Melone, N. P. (1992) Conservatism in integrating information: Implications for international management. In: Business behavior and information, ed. Ijiri, Y. & Nakano, I.. Carnegie Mellon University Press. [NPM]
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994a) The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategies: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference. Cognitive Psychology 26:209–39. [arJJK]
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994b) Base rates versus prior beliefs in Bayesian inference. Psycoloquy 5(1) base-rate.6.mckenzie. [rJJK]
McLeod, P. J. (1994) Age differences in judgements of control, poster presented at the thirteenth biennial meetings of the International Society for the Study of Behavioural Development, Amsterdam. [PJM]
McLeod, P. J. & Spence, A. B. (in press) Contiception: A program to study the effects of contingency parameters on judgements of control. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, ir Computers. [PJM]
Medin, D. L. & Bettger, J. G. (1991) Sensitivity to changes in base-rate information. American Journal of Psychology 104:311–32. [aJJK]
Medin, D. L. & Edelson, S. M. (1988) Problem structure and the use of baserate information from experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:6885. [aJJK, SEE, BAS]
Meehl, P. E. (1954) Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the literature. University of Minnesota Press. [aJJK, HEK]
Meehl, P. E. (1977) Why I do not attend case conferences. In: Psychodiagnosis: Seleded papers, ed. Meehl, P. E. & Norton, P. E.. [RMD]
Meehl, P. E. (1978) Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology, journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 46:806–34. [GK]
Meehl, P. E. & Rosen, A. (1955) Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin 52:194216. [aJJK]
Melone, N. P., McGuire, T. W., Blazer, M., Erdner, D., Cerwing, T., McGuire, M. J. & Roy, M. C. (1992) Global conservatism in probability judgments: The base-rate fallacy revisited (WP 1992–34). Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. [NPM]
Melone, N. P., McGuire, T. W., Roy, M. C., Erdner, D. & McGuire, M. J. (1989) Conservatism in probability judgments: A re-examination and reinterpretation of the base rate fallacy (WP 89–90–61). Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. [NPM]
Mississippi Department of Human Services v. Moore (1994) 632 S. 2d 929. [CRC]
Moray, N. (1959) Attention in dichotic listening: Affective cues and the influence of instructions. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 11:5660. [KJV]
Navon, D. (1978) The importance of being conservative: Some reflections on human Bayesian behavior. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 31:3348. [aJJK]
Nelson, T. E., Biemat, M. & Manis, M. (1990) Everyday base rates (sex stereotypes): Potent and resilient. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 59:664–75. [aJJK, JK]
Nesson, C. (1985) The evidence or the event? On judicial proof and the acceptability of verdicts. Harvard Law Review 98:13571392. [aJJK]
Niiniluoto, I. (1981) L. J. Cohen versus Bayesianism. Behavioral and Brain ciences 4:349. [aJJK]
Nisbett, R. E. & Borgida, E. (1975) Attribution and the psychology of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:932–43. [arJJK, PDW]
Nisbett, R. E., Borgida, E., Crandall, R. & Reed, H. (1982) Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative. Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]
Nisbett, R. E., Fong, G. T., Lehman, D. R. & Cheng, P. W. (1987) Teaching reasoning. Science 238:625–31. [aJJK]
Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C. & Kunda, Z. (1983) The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. Psychological Review 90:339–63. [aJJK]
Nisbett, R. E. & Ross, L. (1980) Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Prentice-Hall. [aJJK]
Nisbett, R. E. & Schachter, S. (1966) Cognitive manipulation of pain. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 2:227–36. [aJJK]
Ofir, C. (1988) Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 42:343–63. [aJJK]
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R. & Johnson, E. J. (1992) Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective. Annual Review of sychology 43:87131. [aJJK]
Peecher, M. & Kleinmuntz, D. (1991) Experimental evidence on the effects of accountability on auditor judgments. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 10:108–13. [LK]
Peter, J. P. & Olson, J. C. (1983) Is science marketing? Journal of Marketing 47:111–25. [BJG]
Peterson, C. R. & Beach, L. R. (1967) Man as intuitive statistician. Psychological Bulletin 68:2946. [rJJK]
Phillips, L. D. & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in simple probability inference tasks. Journal of Experimental Psychology 72:346–57. [NPM]
Pimm, S. L. & Redfeam, A. (1988). The variability of animal populations. Nature 268:329–31. [LRG]
Pollard, P. & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1983) The role of ‘representativeness’ in statistical inference: A critical appraisal. In: Thinking and reasoning: Psychological approaches, ed. Evans, J. St. B. T.. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [arJJK]
Poole, D. A., Lindsay, D. S., Memon, A. & Bull, R. (in press) Psychotherapy and the recovery of memories of childhood sexual abuse: U. S. and British practitioners' opinions, practices, and experiences. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [RMD]
Powell, J. L. & Heckman, T. G. (1990) The effects of five factors on the differential use of base-rate and individuating information. Unpublished manuscript, University of Hartford. [aJJK]
Prete, F. R. (1995) Designing behavior: A case study. Perspectives in Ethology 11:255–77. [FRP]
Probability” (1986) Probability and the inference in the law of evidence. Boston University Law Review 66[Symposium], [aJJK]
Quinsey, V. L. (1981) The long term management of the mentally disordered offender. In: Mental disorder and criminal responsibility, ed. Hucker, S. J., Webster, C. D. & Ben-Aron, M.. Toronto: Butterworths. [VLQ]
Quinsey, V. L. & Ambtman, R. (1979) Variables affecting psychiatrists' and teachers' assessments of the dangerousness of mentally ill offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 47:353–62. [VLQ]
Quinsey, V. L. & Cyr, M. (1986) Perceived dangerousness and treatability of offenders: The effects of internal versus external attributions of crime causality. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1:458—71. [VLQ]
Quinsey, V. L. & Maguire, A. (1986) Maximum security psychiatric patients: Actuarial and clinical prediction of dangerousness. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1:143—71. [VLQ]
Rasinski, K. A., Crocker, J. & Hastie, R. (1985) Another look at sex stereotypes and social judgments: An analysis of die social percerver's use of subjective probabilities. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49:317–26. [aJJK, JK]
Reber, A. S. (1993) The cognitive unconscious: An evolutionary perspective. Consciousness and Cognition 1:93133. [BAS]
Reichenback, H. (1949) The theory of probability. University of California Press. [HEK]
Rice, M. E. & Harris, G. T. (in press) Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [VLQ]
Saks, S. L. & Fishback, C. L. (1994) Sensitivity in a Bayesian judgment task: Can the inputs support the process? Unpublished manuscript, University of South Florida. [aJJK]
Schum, D. A. & Martin, A. W. (1982) Formal and empirical research on cascaded inference in jurisprudence. Law and Society Review 17:105–51. [aJJK]
Schwarz, N., Strack, F., Hiltin, D. & Naderer, G. (1991) Base rates, representativeness, and the logic of conversation: The contextual relevance of ‘irrelevant’ inforamtion. Social Cognition 9:6783. [aJJK]
Seger, C. A. (1994) Implicit learning. Psychological Bulletin 115:163–96. [BAS]
Seligman, M. E. P. (1970) On the generality of the laws of learning. Psychological Review 17:406–18. [FRP]
Shanks, D. R. (1991) Categorization by a connectionist network. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 117:227–47. [PF-B]
Shanks, D. R. (1992) Connectionist accounts of the inverse base-rate effect in categorization. Connection Science 4:318. [PF-B]
Shanks, D. R. & John, M. F. (1994) Characteristics of dissociable human learning systems. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17:367447. [BAS]
Shaviro, D. (1989) Statistical-probability evidence and the appearance of justice. Harvard Law Review 103:530–54. [aJJK, CRC]
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Uchtenstein, S. (1977) Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 28:139. [NHA]
Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1971) Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organization Behavior and Human Performance 6:649743. [aJJK]
Smith, J. & Kida, T. (1991) Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. Psychological Bulletin 3:472–89. [LK]
Snow, W. G. (1985) Does the base rate exist? Journal of Clinical Neuropsychology 7:621. [aJJK]
Spellman, B. A. (1993) Implicit learning of base rates. Psycoloquy 4(61) baserate. 4.spellman. [aJJK, BAS]
Stephens, D. W. & Krebs, J. R. (1986) Foraging theory. Princeton University Press. [LRG]
Sullivan, R. C. & Delaney, H. R. (1982) Criminal investigations: A decision making process. Journal of Police Science and Administration 10:335–43. [aJJK]
Swieringa, R. & Gibbins, M., Larsson, L. & Sweeney, J. (1976) Experiments in the heuristics of human information processing. Journal of Accounting 14:159–87. [aJJK]
Swim, J. K. (1994) Perceived versus meta-analytic effect sizes: An assessment of the accuracy of gender stereotypes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 66:2136. [DCF]
Tetlock, P. E. (1992a) The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In: Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, ed. Zanna, M. P.. Academic Press. [PF-B, CJT]
Tetlock, P. E. (1992b) Is it a bad idea to study good judgment? Political Psychology 13:429–34. [CJT]
Todd, J. T. & Morris, E. K. (1992) Case histories in the great power of steady misrepresentation. American Psychologist 47:1441–53. [aJJK]
Tomassini, L., Solomon, I., Romney, M. & Krogstad, J. (1982) Calibration of auditors' probabilistic judgments: Some empirical evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 30:391406. [LK]
Tribe, L. H. (1971) Trial by mathematics: Precision and ritual in the legal process. Harvard Law Review 84:1329–93. [aJJK]
Tversky, A. & Gilovich, T. (1989) The cold facts about the ‘hand hot’ in basketball. Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing 2:1621. [aJJK]
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1971) Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin 76:105–10. [aJJK, SEE]
Tversky, A. (1980) Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In: Progress in social psychology1, ed. Fishbein, M.. Erlbaum. [aJJK, PF-B]
Tversky, A. (1981) The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice1. Science 211:453–58. [BJG]
Tversky, A. (1982a) Evidential impact of base rates. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK, BAS]
Tversky, A. (1982b) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [LRG]
Tversky, A. (1983) Extensional vs. intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment1. Psychological Review 91:293315. [rJJK]
Ungar, S. & Shev'er, A. (1989) ‘Say it ain't so, Ben’: Attributions for a fallen hero. Social Psychology Quarterly 52:207–12. [aJJK]
Vicente, K. J. & Brewer, W. F. (1993). Reconstructive remembering of the scientific literature. Cognition 46:101–28. [KJV]
VonWinterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W. (1986) Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]
Wagenaar, W. A. (1988) The proper seat: A Bayesian discussion of the position of expert witnesses. Law and Human Behavior 12:499510. [aJJK]
Wason, P. C. (1983) Realism and rationality in the selection task. In: Thinking and reasoning: Psychological approaches, ed. Evans, J. St. B. T.. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [FRP]
Wasserman, E. A. (1990) Detecting response-outcome relations: Toward an understanding of the causal texture of the environment. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation 26:2682. [PJM]
Watson, J. B. & Rayner, R. (1920) Conditioned emotional reactions1. Journal of Experimental Psychology 3:115. [KJV]
Watson, J. S. (1979) Perception of contingency as a determinant of social responsiveness. In: The origins of social responsiveness, ed. Thoman, E. B.. Erlbaum. [PJM]
Weber, E. U., Bockenholt, U., Hilton, D. J. & Wallace, B. (1993) Determinants of diagnostic hypothesis generation: Effects of information, base rates and experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 191:1151–64. [aJJK]
Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C. & Quinsey, V. L. (1994) The violence prediction scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Centre of Criminology, University of Toronto. [VLQ]
Wells, C. L. (1992) Naked statistical evidence of liability: Is subjective probability enough? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 62:739–52. [PDW]
Wells, G. L. & Harvey, J. H. (1977) Do people use consensus information in making causal attributions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:279–93. [aJJK, JK, PDW]
Wells, G. L. (1978) Naive attributors' attributions and predictions: What is informative and when is an effect an effect? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36:483–90. [aJJK, GK]
Wells, G. L. & Windschitl, P. D. (1994) When is the use of base-rate information not a logical imperative? Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(33) base-rate.14.wells-wischitl. [aJJK]
Wiggins, J. S. (1973) Personality and prediction: Principles of personality assessment. Addison-Wesley. [VLQ]
Willis, W. G. (1984) Reanalysis of an actuarial approach to neuropsychological diagnosis in consideration of base rates. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 52:567–67. [aJJK]
Wolfe, C. R. (1995) Information seeking on Bayesian conditioned probability problems: A fuzzy-trace theory account. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 8:85108. [aJJK]
Wyer, R. S. Jr, & Srull, T. K. (1994) Handbook of social cognition, vol. 1. Hillsdale, New Jersey: LEA. [PF-B]
Zuckerman, A. A. S. (1986) Law, fact or justice? Boston University Law Beview 66:487508. [CRC]
Zukier, H. & Pepitone, A. (1984) Social roles and strategies in prediction: Some determinants of the use of base-rate information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47:349–60. [aJJK]

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed