Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-5g6vh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T10:14:02.970Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Learning about Growth and Democracy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2020

SCOTT F. ABRAMSON  and
SERGIO MONTERO Open the ORCID record for SERGIO MONTERO [Opens in a new window]
SCOTT F. ABRAMSON*
Affiliation:
University of Rochester
SERGIO MONTERO*
Affiliation:
University of Rochester
*
Scott F. Abramson, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, sabramso@ur.rochester.edu.
Sergio Montero, Assistant Professor, Departments of Political Science and Economics, University of Rochester, smontero@rochester.edu.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We develop and estimate a model of learning that accounts for the observed correlation between economic development and democracy and for the clustering of democratization events. In our model, countries’ own and neighbors’ past experiences shape elites’ beliefs about the effects of democracy on economic growth and their likelihood of retaining power. These beliefs influence the choice to transition into or out of democracy. We show that learning is crucial to explaining observed transitions since the mid-twentieth century. Moreover, our model predicts reversals to authoritarianism if the world experienced a growth shock the size of the Great Depression.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 114 , Issue 4 , November 2020 , pp. 1195 - 1212
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We thank Tasos Kalandrakis, Didac Queralt, Matt Shum, Erik Snowberg, Jörg Spenkuch, Fabrizio Zilibotti, and audiences at Kellogg MEDS, Princeton, Vanderbilt, NYU, the 2018 Banff Empirical Microeconomics Workshop, SIOE 2018, APSA 2018, and the 2018 Formal Theory and Comparative Politics Conference for very helpful comments. Anna Walsdorff provided excellent research assistance. Replication files are available at the American Political Science Review Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EPDD6F.

References

Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, Robinson, James A., and Yared, Pierre. 2008. “Income and Democracy.” American Economic Review 98 (3): 808–842.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, Robinson, James A., and Yared, Pierre. 2009. “Reevaluating the Modernization Hypothesis.” Journal of Monetary Economics 56: 1043–1058.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, Naidu, Suresh, Restrepo, Pascual, and Robinson, James A.. 2019. “Democracy Does Cause Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 127 (1): 47–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ahlquist, John S., and Wibbels, Erik. 2012. “Riding the Wave: World Trade and Factor-Based Models of Democratization.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (2): 447–464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Rodrik, Dani. 1994. “Distributive Politics and Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 109 (2): 465–490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Roubini, Nouriel, and Cohen, Gerald D.. 1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Almond, Gabriel A., and Verba, Sidney. 1963. The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Armingeon, Klaus, and Guthmann, Kai. 2014. “Democracy in Crisis? The Declining Support for National Democracy in European Countries, 2007–2011.” European Journal of Political Research 53 (3): 423–442.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ascencio, Sergio J., and Rueda, Miguel R.. 2019. “Partisan Poll Watchers and Electoral Manipulation.” American Political Science Review 113 (3): 727–742.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, Robert J. 1996. “Democracy and Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 1 (1): 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, Robert J. 1999. “Determinants of Democracy.” Journal of Political Economy 107 (S6): S158–S183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2013. “Political Effects of the Great Recession.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 650 (1): 47–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2011. “Democracy, Development, and the International System.” American Political Science Review 105 (4): 809–828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles, Miller, Michael, and Rosato, Sebastian. 2013. “A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–2007.” Comparative Political Studies 46 (12): 1523–1554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles, and Stokes, Susan C.. 2003. “Endogenous Democratization.” World Politics 55 (4): 517–549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolton, Patrick, and Harris, Christopher. 1999. “Strategic Experimentation.” Econometrica 67 (2): 349–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bramoulleé, Yann, Kranton, Rachel, and D’Amours, Martin. 2014. “Strategic Interaction and Networks.” American Economic Review 104 (3): 898–930.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brender, Adi, and Drazen, Allan. 2008. “How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries.” American Economic Review 98 (5): 2203–2220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brinks, Daniel, and Coppedge, Michael. 2006. “Diffusion Is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy.” Comparative Political Studies 39 (4): 463–489.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buera, Francisco J., Monge-Naranjo, Alexander, and Primiceri, Giorgio E.. 2011. “Learning the Wealth of Nations.” Econometrica 79 (1): 1–45.Google Scholar
Chen, Jie, and Lu, Chunlong. 2011. “Democratization and the Middle Class in China: The Middle Class’s Attitudes toward Democracy.” Political Research Quarterly 64 (3): 705–719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crisman-Cox, Casey, and Gibilisco, Michael. 2018. “Audience Costs and the Dynamics of War and Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 566–580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, Robert A 1998. On Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
de Bromhead, Alan, Eichengreen, Barry, and O’Rourke, Kevin H.. 2013. “Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?” Journal of Economic History 73 (2): 371–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 2011. “The Impact of the Economic Crisis: Why Democracies Survive.” Journal of Democracy 22 (1): 17–30.Google Scholar
Feenstra, Robert C., Inklaar, Robert, and , Marcel P.Timmer, . 2015. “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table.” American Economic Review 105 (10): 3150–3182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frey, Bruno S., and Weck, Hannelore. 1983. “A Statistical Study of the Effect of the Great Depression on Elections: The Weimar Republic, 1930–1933.” Political Behavior 5 (4): 403–420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
García-Jimeno, Camilo. 2016. “The Political Economy of Moral Conflict: An Empirical Study of Learning and Law Enforcement under Prohibition.” Econometrica 84 (2): 511–570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, Sonin, Konstantin, and , Milan W.Svolik, . 2016. “Formal Models of Nondemocratic Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science 19: 565–584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian S. 2002. “Expanded Trade and GDP Data (version 6.0).” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5): 712–724.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian S., and , Michael DWard, . 2006. “Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization.” International Organization 60 (4): 911–933.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Henk E., , Kristian S.Gleditsch, , and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. “Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders.” Journal of Peace Research 46 (2): 269–283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review 71 (4): 1467–1487.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirschman, Albert O., and Rothschild, Michael. 1973. “The Changing Tolerance for Income Inequality in the Course of Economic Development.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 87 (4): 544–566.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Houle, Christian, , Mark A.Kayser, , and Xiang, Jun. 2016. “Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy.” International Organization 70 (4): 687–726.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1993. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Kadera, Kelly M., , Mark J. C.Crescenzi, , and , Megan L.Shannon, . 2003. “Democratic Survival, Peace, and War in the International System.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2): 234–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laliberté, André, and Lanteigne, Marc, eds. 2008. The Chinese Party-State in the 21st Century: Adaptation and the Reinvention of Legitimacy. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour M. 1959. “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.” American Political Science Review 53 (1): 69–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Londregan, John B., and , Keith T.Poole, . 1996. “Does High Income Promote Democracy?” World Politics 49 (1): 1–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddison, Angus. 2010. “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD.” URL:http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., , Helen V.Milner, , and , B. PeterRosendorff, . 2000. “Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade.” American Political Science Review 94 (2): 305–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matérn, Bertil. 1960. “Spatial Variation: Stochastic Models and Their Application to Some Problems in Forest Surveys and Other Sampling Investigations.” Meddelanden Från Statens Skogsforskningsinstitut 49 (5): 1–144.Google Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2016. “Democracy by Example? Why Democracy Spreads When the World’s Democracies Prosper.” Comparative Politics 49 (1): 83–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mossel, Elchanan, Sly, Allan, and Tamuz, Omer. 2015. “Strategic Learning and the Topology of Social Networks.” Econometrica 83 (5): 1755–1794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa, ed. 1999. Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1963. “Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force.” Journal of Economic History 23 (4): 529–552.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, Torsten, and Tabellini, Guido. 1994. “Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?” American Economic Review 84 (3): 600–621.Google Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon C 2005. Democracy from Above: Regional Organizations and Democratization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Primiceri, Giorgio E. 2006. “Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers’ Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (3): 867–901.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, and Limongi, Fernando. 1997. “Modernization: Theories and Facts.” World Politics 49 (2): 155–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, , Michael E.Alvarez, , , Jose A.Cheibub, , and Limongi, Fernando. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodrik, Dani. 1999. “Democracies Pay Higher Wages.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (3): 707–738.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skocpol, Theda. 1979. States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spolaore, Enrico, and Wacziarg, Romain. 2009. “The Diffusion of Development.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (2): 469–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, Che-Lin, and , Kenneth L.Judd, . 2012. “Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models.” Econometrica 80 (5): 2213–2230.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2013. “Learning to Love Democracy: Electoral Accountability and the Success of Democracy.” American Journal of Political Science 57(3): 685–702.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2019. “Democracy as an Equilibrium: Rational Choice and Formal Political Theory in Democratization Research.” Democratization 26 (1): 40–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Torfason, Magnus Thor, and Ingram, Paul. 2010. “The Global Rise of Democracy: A Network Account.” American Sociological Review 75 (3): 355–377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Treisman, Daniel. 2015. “Income, Democracy, and Leader Turnover.” American Journal of Political Science 59 (4): 927–942.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wejnert, Barbara. 2005. “Diffusion, Development, and Democracy, 1800-1999.” American Sociological Review 70 (1): 53–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence, ed. 1996. The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Abramson and Montero Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EPDD6F
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Abramson and Montero supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Abramson and Montero supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 461.8 KB