The role of crop insurance and new risk management tools for agriculture is evolving at an almost dizzying pace. One needs only to examine recent postings on the Risk Management Agency's website to see how expansive this is. Moreover, throughout the world we are witness to a host of new programs available in both developed and developing countries that are largely based on the U.S. experience. It is necessary that academics first recognize the scope of issues facing production and market risks in agriculture and then respond with new and creative ways to address the problems. To these needs, the Crop Insurance and Risk Management Workshop—the provenance of the papers in this volume—was designed to bring academics with research and extension responsibilities together with industry to explore this ever-changing landscape and discuss research and outreach of mutual interest.

In recent decades, urban encroachment and increasing environmental regulation have impacted California's dairy industry. A complicated set of environmental legislation affects dairies in the state, and can differ depending on location, creating the possibility for within-state pollution havens. This article details the regional, state, and federal environmental regulation of California's dairy industry, and examines data to see if it matches a hypothesis of regulation affecting dairy location. Using county-year data, we show evidence of changing dairy location within the state matching times of local legislative action. The Central Valley gained production, while the more regulated and urban-affected Los Angeles area lost. Large dairies have increased by 150 percent in the Central Valley, even as the number of small farms in the region declined by 40 percent. More rigorous analysis is necessary to discern the relative impacts of land prices and regulation on dairy location.

As a first effort at modeling nonalcoholic beverage demand in a systemwide framework that includes bottled water, this article examines the impact of advertising on the demand for nonalcoholic beverages in the United States. We employed an AIDS (almost ideal demand system) model of five jointly estimated equations that included advertising expenditures as explanatory variables to evaluate annual U. S. consumption of nonalcoholic beverages for 1974 through 2005. Results suggest that advertising increases demand for fluid milk, soft drinks, and coffee and tea, but not for juice or bottled water. Advertising spillover effects occur in over 50 percent of the cases considered, and such effects can be substantial, particularly for advertising of soft drinks, and coffee and tea. We find that a large increase in the retail price of fluid milk, an increasing trend towards dining out, and positive spillover effects from soft-drink advertising made significant contributions to bottled water's success in recent years.

This article focuses on innovation in weather insurance designed to fit the special circumstances of the poor in lower income countries where rural and agricultural financial markets are largely underdeveloped. Index insurance is an innovation that circumvents many of the fundamental problems that hamper the development of insurance for weather risks in lower income countries. With index insurance, payments are made based upon an objective and independent index that serves as a proxy for significant losses to crops, livestock, or other property. For example, the index can be based upon extreme rainfall measures that create either drought or flooding. Weather stations or even satellite imagery coupled with computer models can be used to create reliable “indexes” as the basis of payments. This article reviews this innovation by providing the background for its development and the motivation for using the innovation for the poor.

While it is generally accepted that change in the real value of the dollar is an important determinant of exports, it has not been rigorously demonstrated that this relationship, derivable from theory, holds empirically for agricultural exports and the components of agricultural exports. Starting with a dynamic maximizing framework, this paper estimates the real trade-weighted exchange rate and trade partner income effects on U. S. agricultural exports. For the period 1970–2006, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 0. 75 percent, while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0. 5 percent. While these effects carry over to 12 commodity subcategories, they are conditioned by differences between bulk and high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from high compared to low income countries. We use a directed acyclic graphs (DAG) technique to identify the inverted fork causal relationships from vector autoregression (VAR) models. We also find that there is an asymmetric exchange rate effect so that the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports sometimes dominates the positive effect of foreign income growth.

Environmental and natural resource economists could be more effectively engaged in great research on exciting issues in environmental and natural resource management. After identifying possible obstacles to improved research, the article focuses on opportunities and obstacles associated with obtaining funding from the National Science Foundation. Opportunities abound, both ongoing and in the future, for interdisciplinary work involving environmental and natural resource economists. Keys to exploiting these opportunities for funding include a willingness to face rejection, build teams, contact program officers with specific questions, write detailed research designs, and prepare proposals that promise to go beyond narrow incremental advances.

Estimating how the use of production contracts affects farm productivity is difficult when unobservable factors are correlated with both the decision to contract and productivity. To account for potential selection bias, this study uses the local availability of production contracts as an instrument for whether a farm uses a contract in order to estimate the impact of contract use on total factor productivity. Results indicate that use of a production contract is associated with a large increase in productivity for feeder-to-finish hog farms in the United States. The instrumental variable method makes it credible to assert that the observed association is a causal relationship rather than simply a correlation.

Many states have crop insurance extension programs. This activity has been stimulated with the availability of funds to support extension from the Risk Management Agency (RMA) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Several new RMA programs were established under the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000. The Targeted States Program is quite important for the Northeast. This program serves states that were traditionally underserved by crop insurance. It is available in all 12 northeastern states, plus Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. The Targeted States Program funds one program in each state. A total of $4.5 million in funding is available each year. Amounts for state programs range from $157,000 in Rhode Island to $754,000 in Pennsylvania, which is a considerable amount of funding.

A stochastic capital budget was used to analyze the effect of net metering policies and carbon credits on profitability of anaerobic digesters on dairy farms in Pennsylvania. We analyzed three different farm sizes—500, 1, 000, and 2,000 cows—and considered the addition of a solids separator to the project. Results indicate that net metering policies and carbon credits increase the expected net present value (NPV) of digesters. Moreover, the addition of a solids separator further increases the mean NPV of the venture. In general, the technology is profitable only for very large farms (1, 000+ cows) that use the separated solids as bedding material.

Two double-limit tobit models are used to identify significant risk factors that most affect farm-raised catfish losses from weather-related events and from disease outbreaks. Results of the weather loss model indicate that the variables for operator education level, number of ponds, pond water depth, production management strategy, past experience with severe losses from low oxygen levels from off-farm power outages, past experience with severe losses from diseases, and being in the South are statistically significant. Results of the disease loss model indicate that the variables for operator experience and pond water depth are significant. Development of models explaining weather and disease losses through observable variables provides a better understanding of the interrelation between the loss perils and explanatory variables so management strategies can be developed to mitigate losses from identified risk factors.

As a result of economies of size, food processors are generally large and few in number. These characteristics put processors at a bargaining advantage over independent farmers. Marketing cooperatives were established to counter the uneven bargaining position of individual farmers. This article investigates the relative bargaining strength of one milk marketing cooperative and several fluid milk processors. The Nash bargaining model can be used to analyze the negotiated price in the Florida fluid milk market which acts like a bilateral monopoly. The milk marketing cooperatives have bargained well with the milk marketing processors; The monthly bargaining strength of the Southeast Dairy Cooperative, Inc. (SDC), exceeds the monthly bargaining strength of the processors in all twelve months, ranging from a low of 0.6664 in January to a high of 0.7831 in September. The monthly average bargaining strength across all months for SDC is 0.7326.

Using trout producer survey data and the contingent valuation method, we estimate willingness to pay for a potential insurance policy. The survey was conducted in 2005 across the United States; 268 producers completed the survey instrument, resulting in a response rate of 81 percent. Design of the contingent valuation method takes into account two coverage levels and four premium rates. Using standard willingness-to-pay techniques, we assess the premium rate that producers with varying practices and regions are willing to pay for two different coverage levels of insurance. In general, trout producers appear willing to pay premium rates of 2 to 11 percent for these coverage levels.

We investigate nutrient trading for point and non-point sources for the Bay Restoration Fund in Maryland. We demonstrate how to use the proceeds from the tax revenue to mimic a market by trading high-cost upgrades of sewage treatment plants for low-cost winter cover crops. Under an optimistic assumption about costs for non-point sources and naïve assumptions about the lag from planting cover crops to changes in nitrogen load, we calculate that 100 percent of abatement could be achieved at 56 percent of total costs, while in a pessimistic scenario, 100 percent of abatement could be could be achieved at 83 percent of total costs.

The vast majority of crop and revenue insurance policies sold in the United States are singlecrop policies that insure against low yields or revenues for each crop grown on the farm. But, increasingly, producer income is based more on the value of crops that have been converted into a value-added product such as ethanol. Moreover, the recent increases in energy and commodity price levels and volatilities emphasize the importance of risk management to ethanol investors. This paper uses an insurance approach to outline a risk management tool which mimics the gross margin level of a typical corn-based ethanol plant. The gross margin, premium, and indemnity levels are calculated on a per bushel basis to enable producers/investors to utilize the product based on their ownership share in the production facility. The fair premium rates are shown to be quite sensitive with respect to corn and energy price levels and volatilities.

We estimated the economic benefits resulting from controlling soybean aphid infestation by using a multi-regional competitive dynamic equilibrium model. Results indicate that the reduction of soybean production resulting from a soybean aphid infestation is largely absorbed by reducing soybean exports, due to the higher price elasticity of export demand compared to domestic demand. Producer benefits resulting from controlling soybean aphids would increase by between $949 million and $1.623 billion in ten years under various scenarios. Results also suggest that it is economically more efficient to control soybean aphids when the rate of intrinsic growth is relatively lower, the supply price elasticity of soybean acreage is relatively more elastic, and insecticide treatment costs per acre are lower. However, if the discovery of the gene Rag-1 (TF04048) leads to new cultivars that withstand the soybean aphid, our estimates will overestimate the actual damages. Even so, our analysis demonstrates that it is critical to control soybean aphids early in their infestation cycle to avoid a rapid increase in damages.

This paper introduces a web-based computer program designed to evaluate weather risk management and weather insurance in the United States. The paper outlines the economics of weather risk in terms of agricultural production and household well-being; defines weather risk in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency; and illustrates the computer program use by comparing heat and precipitation risks at Ardmore, Oklahoma, and Ithaca, New York.

This study analyzes quantity impacts of imported crawfish tailmeat on Louisiana crawfish tailmeat prices, and demonstrates the statistical validity and proper interpretation of cross substitution within inverse demand systems. Among five inverse demand systems, the Differential Inverse National Bureau of Research (DINBR) model shows no violation of econometric assumptions for the data analyzed. By using Allais coefficients proposed by Barten and Bettendorf (1989), we show substitutability among the five fish species.

This article examines the flexibility of the Johnson system of distributions by assessing its performance in terms of modeling crop yields for the purpose of setting actuarially fair crop insurance premiums. Using data from corn farms in Illinois coupled with Monte Carlo simulation procedures, we found that average crop insurance premiums computed on the basis of the Johnson system provide reasonably accurate estimates even when the data are normal or come from a non-normal distribution other than the Johnson system (i.e., a beta). These results suggest that there is potential for using the Johnson system to rate previously uninsured crops that do not have historical insurance performance data upon which to base premium calculations.

In this article, we introduce a recreational amenity—a greenbelt park—into a simple urban economic model. For multiple possible park placements, we solve for the associated equilibrium urban structure, including the equilibrium rent gradient, city boundary, total number of park visits, the overall utility level, and total vehicle miles traveled. We examine how these change with alternative park placement sites. We then show how two modifications of the basic model—allowing congestion at the site to affect site quality, and introducing the possibility of a substitute site at the city's periphery—affect our conclusions about how greenbelt location influences urban structure.

This paper examines the factors influencing farmer participation in crop insurance schemes, but unlike previous studies that focus on total demand, participation is disaggregated into entrants and those exiting. Modeling entry and exit decisions separately illustrates that the effect of a given variable is often muted by aggregation. In addition, the approach in this paper distinguishes between price and yield variables rather than total returns and is consequently able to demonstrate that price variables are particularly important for farmers considering enrolling in crop insurance, while yield variables and other risk management opportunities are more important for farmers who have been in the program but are deciding to exit. The result suggests that moral hazard is reduced significantly by calculating the coverage yield level for an individual producer on the basis of a moving average of past yields for that farmer. While yield and its variance are particularly influential in the participation decision for farmers currently enrolled, its significant impact on the insurance decision for all farmers highlights the importance of crop insurance as a potential adaptation strategy to weather events.