Climate change will increase variability in temperature and precipitation on rangelands, impacting ecosystem services including livestock grazing. Facing uncertainty about future climate, managers must know if current practices will maintain rangeland sustainability. Herein, the future density of an invasive species, broom snakeweed, is estimated using a long-term ecological dataset and climate projections. We find that livestock stocking rates determined using a current method result in lower forage production, allowable stocking rate, and grazing value than an economically efficient stocking rate. Results indicate that using ecology and adaptive methods in management are critical to the sustainability of rangelands.