Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Modeling U.S. Broiler Supply Response: A Structural Time Series Approach

  • Crispin M. Kapombe (a1) and Dale Colyer (a1)

Abstract

A structural time series model is used to estimate the supply response function for broiler production in the United States using quarterly data and a structural time series model. This model has the advantage of expressing trend and seasonal elements as stochastic components, allowing a dynamic interpretation of the results and improving the forecast capabilities of the model. The results of the estimation indicate the continued importance of feed costs to poultry production and of technology as expressed by the stochastic trend variable. However, seasonal influences appear to have become less important, since the seasonal component was not statistically significant.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Aradhyula, S.V., and Holt, M.T. 1989. “Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71: 892902.
Bhati, U.N. 1987. “Supply and Demand Responses for Poultry Meat in Australia.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 31: 256–65.
Benson, V.W., and Witzig, T.J. 1977. The Chicken Broiler Industry. Agriculture Economic Report no. 381. Washington, D.C.: ERS, USDA.
Chambers, R.G., and Just, R.E. 1981. “Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on U.S. Agriculture: A Dynamic Analysis.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63: 3246.
Chavas, J.P., and Johnson, S.R. 1987. “An Econometric Model of the U.S. Egg Industry.” Applied Economics 13: 321–35.
Chavas, J.P., and Johnson, S.R. 1982. “Supply and Dynamics: The Case of U.S. Broilers and Turkeys.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 64: 558–64.
Childs, N.W., and Hammig, M.D. 1989. “An Empirical Examination of the Link between Monetary Policy and U.S. Agricultural Commodity Exports.” Applied Economics 21: 155–73.
Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. 1979. “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427–31.
Golz, T.K., Golz, J.T., Helgeson, D.L., and Petry, T.A. 1990. Preliminary Economic Feasibility of Broiler Production in North Dakota. Agricultural Economics Report no. 261. Fargo: Agricultural Experiment Station, North Dakota State University.
Gonzalez, P., and Moral, P. 1995. “An Analysis of the International Tourism Demand in Spain.” International Journal of Forecasting 11: 233–51.
Goodwin, J.W., Madrigal, S.A., and Martin, J.E. 1996. Supply and Demand Responses in the U.S. Broiler Industry. Report Series 332. Fayetteville: Agricultural Experimental Station, University of Arkansas.
Goodwin, T.H., and Sheffrin, S.M. 1982. “Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market.” Review of Economics and Statistics 64: 658–67.
Harvey, A.C. 1989. Forecasting Analysis of Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Harvey, A.C. 1994. Time Series Models. 2d ed. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Harvey, A.C., Henry, S.G.B., Peters, H.S., and Wren-Lewis, S. 1986. “Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equation.” Economic Journal 96: 975–85.
Harvey, A.C., and Jaeger, A. 1993. “Detrending Stylized Facts and the Business Cycles.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 8: 231–47.
Harvey, A.C., and Shephard, N. 1993. “Structural Time Series Models.” In Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 11, ed. Madalla, G.S., Rao, C.R., and Vinod, H.D. Amsterdam: Elsevier Publishers.
Huntzinger, R. le Var. 1979. “Market Analysis with Rational Expectations.” Journal of Econometrics 10: 127–45.
Koopman, S.J., Harvey, A.C., Doornick, J.A., and Shephard, N. 1995. Structural Time Series Analyser, Modeller and Predictor (STAMP 5.0). 1st ed. London: Chapman & Hall Publishers.
Labys, W.C., and Pollack, P.K. Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis. London: Croom-Helm, 1984.
Lasley, F.A. 1983. The U.S. Poultry Industry: Changing Economics and Structure. Report no. 502. Washington, D.C. ERS, USDA.
Lasley, F.A., Jones, H.B., Easterling, E.H., and Christensen, L.A. 1988. The U.S. Broiler Industry. AER no. 591. Washington, D.C.: ERS, USDA.
Malone, G.W., and Reece, J. 1976. “Estimating Broiler Supply and Demand as a Simultaneous System.” Poultry Science 55: 414–18.
Martinez, S.W., Norton, G.W., Capps, O., and Weaver, W.D. 1986. “A Demand Model of the Broiler Industry.” Poultry Science 65: 2071–75.
Phillips, P.C.B., and Perron, P. 1988. “Testing for Unit Root in Time Series Regression.” Biometrika 75: 335–46.
Rogers, G.B. 1979. Poultry and Eggs: Another Revolution in Farming. Report no. 441. Washington, D.C.: Economics Statistics, and Cooperative Service, USDA.
Wescott, P.C., and Hull, D.B. 1985. A Quarterly Forecasting Model for U.S. Agriculture. Technical Bulletin no. 1700. Washington, D.C.: ERS, USDA.
West, M., and Harrison, P.J. 1989. Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. New York: Springer-Verlag.

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed