Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Modeling and Managing Urban Growth at the Rural-Urban Fringe: A Parcel-Level Model of Residential Land Use Change

  • Elena G. Irwin (a1), Kathleen P. Bell (a2) and Jacqueline Geoghegan (a3)

Abstract

As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that “smart growth” objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Allison, P. (1995). Survival Analysis Using the SAS System: A Practical Guide. Cary, NC: The SAS Institute.
American Planning Association. (2002). “Planning for Smart Growth: 2002 State of the States.” APA, Chicago, IL.
Amott, R., and Lewis, F. (1979). “The Transition of Land to Urban Use.” Journal of Political Economy 87(11), 161169.
Benfield, F. K., Jutka, T., Vorsanger, N., and Glendening, P. (2001). “Solving Sprawl: Models of Smart Growth in Communities Across America.” Natural Resource Defense Council, Washington, DC.
Bockstael, N. E., and Bell, K. P. (1998). “Land Use Patterns and Water Quality: The Effect of Differential Land Management Controls.” In Just, R. and Netanyahu, S. (eds.), International Water and Resource Economics Consortium, Conflict and Cooperation on Trans-Boundary Water Resources (pp. 169191). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Burchell, R., Shad, N., Listokin, D., Phillips, H., Downs, A., Seskin, S., Davis, J., Moore, T., Helton, D., and Gall, M. (1998). The Costs of Sprawl—Revisited. Transportation Cooperative Research Program, Report No. 39. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Calvert County, Maryland, Planning Commission. (1997). “1997 Comprehensive Plan.” Calvert County, MD.
Capozza, D., and Helsley, R. (1989). “The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth.” Journal of Urban Economics 26(3), 295306.
Daniels, T. (1999). When City and County Collide. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Downs, A. (1999). “Some Realities About Sprawl and Urban Decline.” Housing Policy Debate 10(4), 955974.
Fleming, M. (2003, in press). “Techniques for Estimating Spatially Dependent Discrete Choice Models” In Florax, R. and Anselin, L. (eds.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics: Methodology, Tools, and Applications. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Frank, N. (2000). “Exploring Sprawl: Findings of a Comprehensive Review of the Literature Related to Sprawl, or What Do We Really Know?” Paper presented at the meetings of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Atlanta, GA, November 2-5.
Geoghegan, J., and Bockstael, N. E. (2000). “Smart Growth and the Supply of Sprawl.” Paper presented at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Workshop, La Jolla, CA.
Geoghegan, J., Wainger, L., and Bockstael, N. E. (1997). “Spatial Landscape Indices in a Hedonic Framework: An Ecological Economics Analysis Using GIS.” Ecological Economics 23(3), 251264.
Gordon, P., and Richardson, H. W. (1997). “Are Compact Cities a Desirable Planning Goal?Journal of the American Planning Association 63(1), 95106.
Gourieroux, C., and Jasiak, J. (2001). “Durations.” In Baltagi, B. H. (ed.), A Companion to Theoretical Economics (pp. 444465). Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.
Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis, 4th edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Hirschhorn, J. (2000). Growing Pains: Quality of Life in the New Economy. Washington, DC: National Governors’ Association.
Irwin, E. G., and Bockstael, N. E. (2002a). “Interacting Agents, Spatial Externalities, and the Endogenous Evolution of Residential Land Use Pattern.” Journal of Economic Geography 2, 3154.
Irwin, E. G., and Bockstael, N. E. (2002b). “Managing Urban Sprawl: The Effects of Land Use Externalities.” Paper presented at the Lincoln Institute for Land Policy workshop on “Analysis of Urban Land Markets and the Impact of Market Regulation,” Cambridge, MA, July 10-12.
Katz, B., and Bradley, J. (1999, June). “Divided We Sprawl.” Atlantic Monthly 284(6), 2634.
Lacayo, R. (1999, March 22). “The Brawl Over SprawlTime Magazine 153(11), 4448.
Land Trust Alliance. (1999). “Voters Invest in Parks and Open Space: 1998 Referenda Results.” Land Trust Alliance, Washington, DC.
Land Trust Alliance. (2000). “Voters Invest in Parks and Open Space: 1999 Referenda Results.” Land Trust Alliance, Washington, DC.
Land Trust Alliance. (2001). “Voters Invest in Parks and Open Space: 2000 Referenda Results.” Land Trust Alliance, Washington, DC.
Landis, J. (1995). “Imagining Land Use Futures: Applying the California Urban Futures Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association 61, 438457.
Landis, J., and Zhang, M. (1998a). “The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 1: Model Logic and Theory.” Environment and Planning A 30, 657666.
Landis, J., and Zhang, M. (1998b). “The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 2: Specification and Calibration Results of the Land-Use Change Submodel.” Environment and Planning B 25, 795824.
Mitchell, J. G. (2001). “Urban Sprawl.” National Geographic 200(1), 4865.
Nelson, A. (1992). “Characterizing Exurbia.” Journal of Planning Literature 6(4), 350368.
Orfield, M. (1997). Metropolitics. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Pew Center for Civic Journalism. (2000). “Straight Talk from Americans—2000.” A national survey for the Pew Center for Civic Journalism conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Washington, DC: Pew Center for Civic Journalism.
Rusk, D. (1999). Inside Game, Outside Game. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
Shaw, J. S., and Utt, R. D., eds. (2000). A Guide to Smart Growth: Shattering Myths, Providing Solutions. Washington, DC: Heritage Foundation.
Sierra Club. (2000). “Smart Choices or Sprawling Growth.” Sierra Club, Washington, DC.
State of Maryland, Department of Planning. MdProperty View. Statewide property map and parcel database. Baltimore, MD. Online. Available at http://www.mdp.state.md.us/data.mdview.htm.

Keywords

Related content

Powered by UNSILO

Modeling and Managing Urban Growth at the Rural-Urban Fringe: A Parcel-Level Model of Residential Land Use Change

  • Elena G. Irwin (a1), Kathleen P. Bell (a2) and Jacqueline Geoghegan (a3)

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.