The purpose which Air Transport should be designed to serve is, I suspect, all too often confused or ignored. I think that the essential contribution which Air Transport has to make to modern civilisation can be expressed, quite simply, in two words:—

Improved communications lead to traffic—both traffic robbed from older and less convenient forms of transport, and new traffic created by the new medium. Carriage of traffic is the fundamental task of all forms of transport. Air Transport, alone unimpeded by geographical barriers, has traffic-carrying potentials which are still largely unexplored, whether that traffic be passengers, freight or mails—businessmen to Brussels, honeymooners to Honolulu, or coals to Berlin. In the same way, estimates of traffic must form the basis of all operational planning and set the scale against which airline fleets and frequencies should be projected in terms of date as well as numbers.

Foundations for any general survey must be laid on established fact. In Aviation all facts are difficult to establish with exactitude because of the almost infinite number of variables concerned. In addition, post-war Civil Aviation, in 1948, has not completely emerged from the transition period from war to peace. Converted military aircraft are still in widespread use on the airlines of the World, while ground facilities suitable for commercial Aviation are still under construction everywhere. Many new technical developments are also in course of introduction.

Hence, at present, Air Transport is nowhere near stability. Such annual accounts and statistics as are now available are for the years 1946 and 1947, during which reconversion was at its peak.

One of the outstanding questions of the hour is the form of power plant which is likely to prove most satisfactory for various classes of transport aircraft for various stage lengths.

“Most satisfactory” can, of course, cover a multitude of desirable features. But there is one pre-eminent requirement which should always Jbe kept in view. That is that the combination of airframe and engine considered should be capable, first of covering its direct operating costs plus overheads and, having done that, of flying as fast as possible.

I have now reached the end of my task. The theme which I have sought throughout is that operating economics, in the broadest sense, are the essence of commercial Air Transport. The purpose of Air Transport is to improve communications—and to improve them economically. Although Air Transport the World over is losing money at present, through a combination of unfortunate circumstances, the facts of the present situation and of developments in train will, I am sure, confound the prophets of gloom. Air Transport, provided with adequate tools and run on the right methods, can be made to pay—furthermore, air travel can be provided economically at fares which the average man will be able to afford.