Consider the problem of determining the Bayesian credibility mean $E(X_{n+1}|X_1,\cdots, X_n),$ whenever the random claims $X_1,\cdots, X_n,$ given parameter vector $\boldsymbol{\Psi},$ are sampled from the K-component mixture family of distributions, whose members are the union of different families of distributions. This article begins by deriving a recursive formula for such a Bayesian credibility mean. Moreover, under the assumption that using additional information $Z_{i,1},\cdots,Z_{i,m},$ one may probabilistically determine a random claim $X_i$ belongs to a given population (or a distribution), the above recursive formula simplifies to an exact Bayesian credibility mean whenever all components of the mixture distribution belong to the exponential families of distributions. For a situation where a 2-component mixture family of distributions is an appropriate choice for data modelling, using the logistic regression model, it shows that: how one may employ such additional information to derive the Bayesian credibility model, say Logistic Regression Credibility model, for a finite mixture of distributions. A comparison between the Logistic Regression Credibility (LRC) model and its competitor, the Regression Tree Credibility (RTC) model, has been given. More precisely, it shows that under the squared error loss function, it shows the LRC’s risk function dominates the RTC’s risk function at least in an interval which about $0.5.$ Several examples have been given to illustrate the practical application of our findings.

We study a stochastic differential equation with an unbounded drift and general Hölder continuous noise of order $\lambda \in (0,1)$ . The corresponding equation turns out to have a unique solution that, depending on a particular shape of the drift, either stays above some continuous function or has continuous upper and lower bounds. Under some mild assumptions on the noise, we prove that the solution has moments of all orders. In addition, we provide its connection to the solution of some Skorokhod reflection problem. As an illustration of our results and motivation for applications, we also suggest two stochastic volatility models which we regard as generalizations of the CIR and CEV processes. We complete the study by providing a numerical scheme for the solution.

This article describes the limiting distribution of the extremes of observations that arrive in clusters. We start by studying the tail behaviour of an individual cluster, and then we apply the developed theory to determine the limiting distribution of $\max\{X_j\,:\, j=0,\ldots, K(t)\}$ , where K(t) is the number of independent and identically distributed observations $(X_j)$ arriving up to the time t according to a general marked renewal cluster process. The results are illustrated in the context of some commonly used Poisson cluster models such as the marked Hawkes process.

Considering a representative agent in the market, we study the long-term optimal investment problem in a discrete-time financial market, introducing a set of restrictions in the admissible strategies. The drawdown constraints limit the size of possible losses of the portfolio and impose a floor-based performance measure. The optimal growth rate is characterized, and under suitable hypotheses it is proved that an optimal strategy exists. The approach to solving this problem is based on dynamic programming techniques and a fixed point argument adapted from the theory of Markov decision processes.

Motivated by Ahmadi-Javid (Journal of Optimization Theory Applications, 155(3), 2012, 1105–1123) and Ahmadi-Javid and Pichler (Mathematics and Financial Economics, 11, 2017, 527–550), the concept of Tsallis Value-at-Risk (TsVaR) based on Tsallis entropy is introduced in this paper. TsVaR corresponds to the tightest possible upper bound obtained from the Chernoff inequality for the Value-at-Risk. The main properties and analogous dual representation of TsVaR are investigated. These results partially generalize the Entropic Value-at-Risk by involving Tsallis entropies. Three spaces, called the primal, dual, and bidual Tsallis spaces, corresponding to TsVaR are fully studied. It is shown that these spaces equipped with the norm induced by TsVaR are Banach spaces. The Tsallis spaces are related to the $L^p$ spaces, as well as specific Orlicz hearts and Orlicz spaces. Finally, we derive explicit formula for the dual TsVaR norm.

In this paper we estimate the expected error of a stochastic approximation algorithm where the maximum of a function is found using finite differences of a stochastic representation of that function. An error estimate of the order $n^{-1/5}$ for the nth iteration is achieved using suitable parameters. The novelty with respect to previous studies is that we allow the stochastic representation to be discontinuous and to consist of possibly dependent random variables (satisfying a mixing condition).

We consider the pricing of discretely sampled volatility swaps under a modified Heston model, whose risk-neutralized volatility process contains a stochastic long-run variance level. We derive an analytical forward characteristic function under this model, which has never been presented in the literature before. Based on this, we further obtain an analytical pricing formula for volatility swaps which can guarantee the computational accuracy and efficiency. We also demonstrate the significant impact of the introduced stochastic long-run variance level on volatility swap prices with synthetic as well as calibrated parameters.

In this paper we propose a general framework for modeling an insurance liability cash flow in continuous time, by generalizing the reduced-form framework for credit risk and life insurance. In particular, we assume a nontrivial dependence structure between the reference filtration and the insurance internal filtration. We apply these results for pricing and hedging non-life insurance liabilities in hybrid financial and insurance markets, while taking into account the role of inflation under the benchmarked risk-minimization approach. This framework offers at the same time a general and flexible structure, and an explicit and treatable pricing-hedging formula.

A moment constraint that limits the number of dividends in an optimal dividend problem is suggested. This leads to a new type of time-inconsistent stochastic impulse control problem. First, the optimal solution in the precommitment sense is derived. Second, the problem is formulated as an intrapersonal sequential dynamic game in line with Strotz’s consistent planning. In particular, the notions of pure dividend strategies and a (strong) subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium are adapted. An equilibrium is derived using a smooth fit condition. The equilibrium is shown to be strong. The uncontrolled state process is a fairly general diffusion.

This paper looks at adapting the method of Medvedev and Scaillet for pricing short-term American options to evaluate short-term convertible bonds. However unlike their method, we provide explicit formulae for the coefficients of our series solution. This means that we do not need to solve complicated recursive systems, and can efficiently provide fast solutions. We also compare the method with numerical solutions, and find that it performs extremely well, giving accurate bond prices as well as accurate optimal conversion prices.

This paper studies a composite problem involving decision-making about the optimal entry time and dynamic consumption afterwards. In Stage 1, the investor has access to full market information subject to some information costs and needs to choose an optimal stopping time to initiate Stage 2; in Stage 2, the investor terminates the costly full information acquisition and starts dynamic investment and consumption under partial observation of free public stock prices. Habit formation preferences are employed, in which past consumption affects the investor’s current decisions. Using the stochastic Perron method, the value function of the composite problem is proved to be the unique viscosity solution of some variational inequalities.

We revisit the forward algorithm, developed by Irle, to characterize both the value function and the stopping set for a large class of optimal stopping problems on continuous-time Markov chains. Our objective is to renew interest in this constructive method by showing its usefulness in solving some constrained optimal stopping problems that have emerged recently.

This note corrects an error in the definition of the rate function in Jacquier, Pakkanen, and Stone (2018) and slightly simplifies some proofs.

We consider the optimal portfolio and consumption problem for a jump-diffusion process with regime switching. Under the criterion of maximizing the expected discounted total utility of consumption, two methods, namely, the dynamic programming principle and the stochastic maximum principle, are used to obtain the optimal result for the general objective function, which is the solution to a system of partial differential equations. Furthermore, we investigate the power utility as a specific example and analyse the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution. Under the constraints of no-short-selling and nonnegative consumption, closed-form expressions for the optimal strategy and the value function are derived. Besides, some comparisons between the optimal results for the jump-diffusion model and the pure diffusion model are carried out. Finally, we discuss our optimal results in some special cases.

We investigate the impact of Knightian uncertainty on the optimal timing policy of an ambiguity-averse decision-maker in the case where the underlying factor dynamics follow a multidimensional Brownian motion and the exercise payoff depends on either a linear combination of the factors or the radial part of the driving factor dynamics. We present a general characterization of the value of the optimal timing policy and the worst-case measure in terms of a family of explicitly identified excessive functions generating an appropriate class of supermartingales. In line with previous findings based on linear diffusions, we find that ambiguity accelerates timing in comparison with the unambiguous setting. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that ambiguity may lead to stationarity in models which typically do not possess stationary behavior. In this way, our results indicate that ambiguity may act as a stabilizing mechanism.

Nowadays many financial derivatives, such as American or Bermudan options, are of early exercise type. Often the pricing of early exercise options gives rise to high-dimensional optimal stopping problems, since the dimension corresponds to the number of underlying assets. High-dimensional optimal stopping problems are, however, notoriously difficult to solve due to the well-known curse of dimensionality. In this work, we propose an algorithm for solving such problems, which is based on deep learning and computes, in the context of early exercise option pricing, both approximations of an optimal exercise strategy and the price of the considered option. The proposed algorithm can also be applied to optimal stopping problems that arise in other areas where the underlying stochastic process can be efficiently simulated. We present numerical results for a large number of example problems, which include the pricing of many high-dimensional American and Bermudan options, such as Bermudan max-call options in up to 5000 dimensions. Most of the obtained results are compared to reference values computed by exploiting the specific problem design or, where available, to reference values from the literature. These numerical results suggest that the proposed algorithm is highly effective in the case of many underlyings, in terms of both accuracy and speed.

We study finite maturity American-style stock loans under a two-state regime-switching economy. We present a thorough semi-analytic discussion of the optimal redeeming prices, the values and the fair service fees of the stock loans, under the assumption that the volatility of the underlying is in a state of uncertainty. Numerical experiments are carried out to show the effects of the volatility regimes and other loan parameters.

We investigate the European call option pricing problem under the fractional stochastic volatility model. The stochastic volatility model is driven by both fractional Brownian motion and standard Brownian motion. We obtain an analytical solution of the European option price via the Itô’s formula for fractional Brownian motion, Malliavin calculus, derivative replication and the fundamental solution method. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the impact of parameters on option prices, and the results of comparison with other models are presented.

We present an analytical option pricing formula for the European options, in which the price dynamics of a risky asset follows a mean-reverting process with a time-dependent parameter. The process can be adapted to describe a seasonal variation in price such as in agricultural commodity markets. An analytical solution is derived based on the solution of a partial differential equation, which shows that a European option price can be decomposed into two terms: the payoff of the option at the initial time and the time-integral over the lifetime of the option driven by a time-dependent parameter. Finally, results obtained from the formula have been compared with Monte Carlo simulations and a Black–Scholes-type formula under various kinds of long-run mean functions, and some examples of option price behaviours have been provided.