Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-p566r Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-19T04:06:53.673Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

3 - Statistical Studies and Terrorist Behavior

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 July 2010

Walter Enders
Affiliation:
University of Alabama
Todd Sandler
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
Get access

Summary

Our eyes are wonderful at detecting associations in data because our brains are wired to simplify complicated patterns and relationships. Within a few seconds, you should be able to figure out that 25 is the next number in the sequence 1, 4, 9, 16. A computer program may need to make millions of calculations just to detect a pattern in the chess pieces that is readily visible to an accomplished player. The problem is that the patterns we perceive in the data may not meaningfully characterize its actual behavior. In the same way that our brains are able to “see” elaborate paintings in the clouds, we are sometimes able to “recognize” what are spurious relationships in economic data.

This chapter will present the time plots of various types of terrorist incidents, including bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, and skyjackings. Some features of the data will be clear even to the casual observer; for example, there is no decidedly upward trend in any of the incident series. However, many other features of the data may not be readily apparent, so that statistical analysis is required to draw inferences about the data. Toward this end, the chapter uses the basic tools of spectral analysis and intervention analysis to formally analyze data about terrorist incidents. Spectral analysis enables us to estimate the cyclical patterns in the various terrorist incident series, while intervention analysis allows us to measure the effects of important structural changes on the incident series.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×