Skip to main content Accessibility help
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 6
  • Print publication year: 2014
  • Online publication date: May 2014

3 - Extreme volcanism: disaster risks and societal implications

from Part II - Extreme hazards and disaster risks


Ackerman, F., Stanton, E. A. and Bueno, R. (2010). Fat tails, exponents, extreme uncertainty: Simulating catastrophe in DICE. Ecological Economics, 69, 1657–1665.
Adey, P., Anderson, B. and Guerrero, L. L. (2011). An ash cloud, airspace and environmental threat. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 36, 338–343.
Adger, W. N. (2006). Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268–281.
Ambrose, S. H. (1998). Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans. Journal of Human Evolution, 34, 623–651.
Arjava, A. (2005). The Mystery Cloud of 536 CE in the Mediterranean. Dumbarton Oaks Papers, vol. 59. Washington, DC: Dumbarton Oaks, pp. 73–94.
Aspinall, W. P., Loughlin, S. C., Michael, F. al. (2002). The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities. Geological Society of London Memoirs, 21, 71–91.
Aspinall, W. P., Woo, G., Voight, B. and Baxter, P. J. (2003). Evidence-based volcanology: Application to eruption crises. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 128, 273–285.
Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., Nave, R. and Ricci, T. (2008). Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 172, 244–258.
Baxter, P. J., Blong, R. and Neri, A., eds. (2008). Evaluating explosive eruption risk at European volcanoes – contributions from the EXPLORIS project. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 178, 331–592.
Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. New Delhi: Sage (German original, 1986).
Bellucci, F., Woo, J., Kilburn, C. and Rolandi, G. (2006). Ground deformation at Campi Flegrei, Italy: Implications for hazard assessment. Geological Society of London Special Publications, 269, 141–157.
Bignami, C., Bosi, V., Costantini, al., eds. (2012). Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management: Prevention, Crisis Management, Resilience. Available at: (accessed on 20 August 2013).
Bird, D. K., Gisladottir, G. and Dominey-Howes, D. (2010). Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 189, 33–48.
Bolić, T. and Sivčev, Z. (2011). Eyjafjallajökull eruption: European air traffic management experience. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2214, 136–143, doi: 10.3141/2214-17.
Courtillot, V., and Olsen, P. (2007). Mantle plumes link magnetic superchrons to Phanerozoic mass depletion events. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 260, 495–504.
Cova, T. J. and Johnson, J. P. (2003). A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 37, 579–604.
Cronin, S., Gaylord, D., Charley, al. (2004). Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu. Bulletin of Volcanology, 66, 652–668.
Crosweller, H., Arora, B., Brown, al. (2012). Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE). Journal of Applied Volcanology, C7–4, 1–13.
Dominey-Howes, D. and Minos-Minopoulos, D. (2004). Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 137, 285–310.
Donovan, A. R. and Oppenheimer, C. (2011). The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the reconstruction of geography. The Geographical Journal, 177, 4–11, doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4959.2010.00379.x.
Donovan, A. and Oppenheimer, C. (2012). Governing the lithosphere: Insights from Eyjafjallajökull concerning the role of scientists in supporting decision-making on active volcanoes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, B03214.
Donovan, A., Oppenheimer, C. and Bravo, M. (2012a). Science at the policy interface: volcano-monitoring technologies and volcanic hazard management. Bulletin of Volcanology, 74, 1005–1022.
Donovan, A., Oppenheimer, C. and Bravo, M. (2012b). Reply to comment from W. P. Aspinall on “Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes” by Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer and Michael Bravo [Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:677–689]. Bulletin of Volcanology, 74, 1571–1574.
Donovan, A. R., Oppenheimer, C. and Bravo, M. (2012c). The use of belief-based probabilistic methods in volcanology: scientists’ views and implications for risk assessments. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 247–248, 168–180.
Dull, R. A. (2004). An 8000-year record of vegetation, climate, and human disturbance from the Sierra de Apaneca, El Salvador. Quaternary Research, 61, 159–167.
Dull, R., Southon, J. R., Kutterolf, al. (2010). Did the TBJ Ilopango eruption cause the AD 536 event? American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #V13C-2370.
Ewert, J. W. and Newhall, C. G. (2004). Status and challenges of volcano monitoring worldwide. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, 21–24June 2004, Alexandria, Virginia, USA, pp. 9–14. Available at: (accessed on 22 August 2013).
Fearnley, C. J., McGuire, W. J., Davies, G. and Twigg, J. (2012). Standardisation of the USGS Volcano Alert Level System (VALS): analysis and ramifications. Bulletin of Volcanology, 74, 2023–2036.
Fergus, H. A. (2004). Montserrat: History of a Caribbean Colony. Oxford: MacMillan.
Fujita, S., Sakurai, T. and Matsuda, K. (2003). Wet and dry deposition of sulfur associated with the eruption of Miyakejima volcano, Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 4444, doi:101029/2002JD003064.
Gaillard, J.-C. (2008). Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 172, 315–328.
Geyer, A. and Marti, J. (2008). The new worldwide collapse caldera database (CCDB): A tool for studying and understanding caldera processes. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 175, 334–354.
Graf, H.-F. and Timmreck, C. (2001). A general climate model simulation of the aerosol radiative effects of the Laacher See eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 14747–14756, doi:10.1029/2001JD900152.
Gregg, C. E., Houghton, B. F., Johnston, D. M., Paton, D. and Swanson, D. A. (2004). The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualälai volcanoes, Hawaii. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 130, 179–196.
Harms, E. and Schmincke, H. U. (2000). Volatile composition of the phonolitic Laacher See magma (12,900 yr BP): implications for syn-eruptive degassing of S, F, Cl and H2O. Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology, 138, 84–98.
Haslam, M., Clarkson, C., Petraglia, al. (2010). The 74 ka Toba super-eruption and southern Indian hominins: archaeology, lithic technology and environments at Jwalapuram Locality 3. Journal of Archaeological Science, 37, 3370–3384, doi:10.1016/j.jas.2010.07.034.
Haynes, K., Barclay, J. and Pidgeon, N. (2008). The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis. Bulletin of Volcanology, 70, 605–621.
Huybers, P. and Langmuir, C. (2009). Feedback between deglaciation, volcanism, and atmospheric CO2. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 286, 479–491.
International Oceanographic Commission / UNESCO (2009). Five years after the tsunami in the Indian Ocean: from strategy to implementation, advancements in global early warning systems for tsunamis and other ocean hazards 2004–2009, available at: (accessed on 20 August 2013).
Jasanoff, S. (1999). The songlines of risk. Environmental Values, 8, 135–152.
Jones, G. S., Gregory, J. M., Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. and Thorpe, R. B. (2005). An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption. Climate Dynamics, 25, 725–738, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0066-8.
Karlstrom, L., Rudolph, M. L. and Manga, M. (2012). Caldera size modulated by the yield stress within a crystal-rich magma reservoir. Nature Geoscience, 5, 402–405.
Kazahaya, K., Shinohara, H., Uto, al. (2004). Gigantic SO2 emission from Miyakejima volcano, Japan, caused by caldera collapse. Geology, 32, 425–428.
Kilburn, C. R. J. (2003). Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 125, 271.
Lane, C. S., Chorn, B. T. and Johnson, T. C. (2013). Ash from the Toba supereruption in Lake Malawi shows no volcanic winter in East Africa at 75 ka. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 8025–8029.
Leonard, G. S., Johnston, D. M., Paton, al. (2008). Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 172, 199–215.
Lindsay, J., Marzocchi, W., Jolly, al. (2010). Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’, Bulletin of Volcanology, 72, 185–204.
Lowe, J., Barton, N., Blockley, al. (2012). Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 13532–13537.
Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. and Wanner, H. (2004). European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science, 303, 1499–1503.
Marzocchi, W. and Bebbington, M. (2012). Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bulletin of Volcanology, 74, 1777–1805.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C. and Boschi, E. (2004). Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB003155.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L. and Selva, J. (2007). BET_EF: A probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bulletin of Volcanology, 70, 623–632.
Mason, B. G., Pyle, D. M. and Oppenheimer, C. (2004). The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth. Bulletin of Volcanology, 66, 735–748, doi:10.1007/s00445-004-0355-9.
Mastrolorenzo, G., Pappalardo, L., Troise, al. (2006). Volcanic hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera. Geological Society of London, Special Publications, 269(1), 159–171.
McCormick, M. P., Thomason, L. W. and Trepte, C. R. (1995). Atmospheric effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption. Nature, 373, 399–404, doi:10.1038/373399a0.
Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, al. (2008). Developing an event tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 178, 397–415.
Newhall, C. G. and Self, S. (1982). The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. Journal of Geophysical Research, 87, 1231–1238.
Oman, L., Robock, A., Stenchikov, G. al. (2006). Modelling the distribution of the volcanic aerosol cloud from the 1783–1784 Laki eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D12209.
Oppenheimer, C. (2002). Limited global change due to largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba ≈ 74 kyr BP? Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, 1593–1609.
Oppenheimer, C. (2003a). Ice core and palaeoclimatic evidence for the timing and nature of the great mid-13th century volcanic eruption. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 417–426.
Oppenheimer, C. (2003b). Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815. Progress in Physical Geography, 27, 230–259.
Oppenheimer, C. (2011). Eruptions That Shook the World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Oppenheimer, C., Scaillet, B. and Martin, R. S. (2011). Sulfur degassing from volcanoes: source conditions, surveillance, plume chemistry and impacts. Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry, 73, 363–421.
Orsi, G., Di Vito, M. A. and Isaia, R. (2004). Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera. Bulletin of Volcanology, 66, 514–530.
Paton, D., Millar, M. and Johnston, D. (2001). Community resilience to volcanic hazard consequences. Natural Hazards, 24, 157–169.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M. and Johnston, D. (2008). Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 172, 179–188.
Perry, R. W. and Lindell, M. K. (2008). Volcanic risk perception and adjustment in a multi-hazard environment. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 172, 170–178.
Perry, R. W., Lindell, M. K. and Greene, M. R. (1982). Threat perception and public response to volcano hazard. Journal of Social Psychology, 116, 199–204.
Petraglia, M., Korisettar, R., Boivin, al. (2007). Middle Paleolithic assemblages from the Indian subcontinent before and after the Toba super-eruption. Science, 317, 114–116.
Pidd, M., De Silva, F. N. and Eglese, R. W. (1996). A simulation model for emergency evacuation. European Journal of Operational Research, 90, 413–419.
Plunket, P. and Uruñuela, G. (2000). The quick and the dead: decision making in the abandonment of Tetimpa. Mayab, 13, 78–87.
Procopius (2007). The Secret History. Translated by G. A. Williamson and P. Sarris. London: Penguin Classics.
Pyle, D. M. (1995). Mass and energy budgets of explosive volcanic eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 22, 563–566.
Rampino, M. R. (2002). Supereruptions as a threat to civilizations on Earth-like planets. Icarus, 156, 562–569.
Rampino, M. R. and Ambrose, S. H. (2000). Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden: the Toba super-eruption and the Late Pleistocene human population crash. Geological Society of America Special Paper, 345, 71–82.
Riede, F. (2008). The Laacher See-eruption (12,920 BP) and material culture change at the end of the Allerød in Northern Europe. Journal of Archaeological Science, 35, 591–599, doi:10.1016/j.jas.2007.05.007.
Robock, A., Ammann, C. M., Oman, al. (2009). Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ∼74 ka B.P. produce widespread glaciation?Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D10107, doi:10.1029/2008JD011652.
Rose, W. I. and Chesner, C. A. (1987). Dispersal of ash in the great Toba eruption, 75 kyr. Geology, 15, 913–917.
Rose, W. I. and Chesner, C. A. (1990). Worldwide dispersal of ash and gases from earth's largest known eruption: Toba, Sumatra, 75 kyr. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 89, 269–275.
Scaillet, B., Clemente, B., Evans, B. W. and Pichavant, M. (1998). Redox control of sulphur degassing in silicic magmas. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 23937–23949.
Schmidt, A., Ostro, B., Carslaw, K. al. (2011). Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 15710–15715.
Schmincke, H. U., Park, C. and Harms, E. (1999). Evolution and environmental impacts of the eruption of Laacher See Volcano (Germany) 12,900 a BP. Quaternary International, 61(1), 61–72.
Self, S. and Blake, S. (2008). Consequences of explosive supereruptions. Elements, 4, 41–46.
Sigmundsson, F., Hreinsdóttir, S., Hooper, al. (2010). Intrusion triggering of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive eruption. Nature, 468, 426–430.
Simkin, T. and Siebert, L. (1994). Volcanoes of the World: A Regional Directory, Gazetteer, and Chronology of Volcanism during the Last 10,000 Years. Tucson, Arizona: Geoscience Press.
Solana, M. C., Kilburn, C. R. J. and Rolandi, G. (2008). Communicating eruption and hazard forecasts on Vesuvius, Southern Italy. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 172, 308–314.
Sparks, R. S. J. (2003). Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 210, 1–15.
Spiegelhalter, D. J. and Riesch, H. (2011). Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 4730–4750.
Stenchikov, G., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, al. (2002). Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 4803, doi:10.1029/2002JD002090.
Stirling, A. (2007). Risk, precaution and science: Towards a more constructive policy debate. EMBO Reports, 8, 309–315.
Storey, M., Roberts, R. G. and Saidin, M. (2012). Astronomically calibrated 40Ar/39Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 18684–18688.
Stothers, R. B. (2002). Cloudy and clear stratospheres before A. D. 1000 inferred from written sources. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 4718, doi:10.1029/2002JD002105.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London: Allen Lane.
Thordarson, T. and Self, S. (1993). The Laki (Skaftár Fires) and Grímsvötn eruptions in 1783–1785. Bulletin of Volcanology, 55, 233–263.
Tilling, R. I. (2008). The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction. Advances in Geosciences, 14, 3–11.
Timmreck, C. (2012). Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3, 545–564.
Timmreck, C. and Graf, H.-F. (2006). The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 35–49, doi:10.5194/acp-6-35-2006.
Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Lorenz, S. al. (2010). Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, 24.
Tobin, G. A. and Whiteford, L. M. (2002). Community resilience and volcano hazard: The eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the Faldas in Ecuador. Disasters, 26, 28–48.
Voight, B. (1988). A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions. Nature, 332, 125–130.
Wilson, C. J. and Hildreth, W. (1998). Hybrid fall deposits in the Bishop Tuff, California: A novel pyroclastic depositional mechanism. Geology, 26, 7–10.
Winchester, S. (2005). Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded. New York: Harper Perennial, ISBN-13: 978-0060838591.
Witham, C. S., Hort, M. C., Potts, al. (2007). Comparison of VAAC atmospheric dispersion models using the 1 November 2004 Grimsvötn eruption. Meteorological Applications, 14, 27–38.
Witham, C. S. and Oppenheimer, C. (2005). Mortality in England during the 1783–4 Laki Craters eruption. Bulletin of Volcanology, 67, 15–26, doi:10.1007/s00445-004-0357-7.
Woo, G. (1999). The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. London: Imperial College Press.
Wynne, B. (1992). Misunderstood misunderstanding: Social identities and the public uptake of science. Public Understanding of Science, 1, 281–304.
Zielinski, G. A., Mayewski, P. A., Meeker, L. al. (1994). Record of volcanism since 7000 B.C. from the GISP2 Greenland ice core and implications for the volcano-climate system, Science, 264, 948–952, doi:10.1126/science.264.5161.948.
Zuccaro, G., Cacace, F., Spence, R. J. S. and Baxter, P. J. (2008). Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 178, 416–453.