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  • Print publication year: 2020
  • Online publication date: May 2020

Chapter 6 - Risk Predictions


In previous chapters, we discussed issues affecting evaluation and use of diagnostic tests: how to assess test reliability and accuracy, how to combine the results of tests with prior information to estimate disease probability, and how a test’s value depends on the decision it will guide and the relative cost of errors. In this chapter, we move from diagnosing prevalent disease to predicting incident outcomes. We will discuss the difference between diagnostic tests and risk predictions and then focus on evaluating predictions, specifically covering calibration, discrimination, net benefit calculations, and decision curves.