Uncertainty and patient heterogeneity in medical decision models. Med Decis Making. 2010;30(2):194–205., , , , .
The combined analysis of uncertainty and patient heterogeneity in medical decision models. Med Decis Making. 2011;31(4):650–61., , , .
The irrelevance of inference: a decision-making approach to the stochastic evaluation of health care technologies. J Health Econ. 1999;18(3):341–64..
A rational framework for decision making by the National Institute For Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). Lancet. 2002;360(9334):711–15., , .
1996. pp. 247–75., , . Reflecting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. In: Gold MR, Siegel JE, Russell LB, Weinstein MC, eds. Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. New York;
Model parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-6. Med Decis Making. 2012;32(5):722–32., , , et al.
Value of information on preference heterogeneity and individualized care. Med Decis Making. 2007;27(2):112–27., .
The recent decline in mortality from coronary heart disease, 1980–1990. The effect of secular trends in risk factors and treatment. JAMA. 1997;277(7):535–42., , , et al.
Cost-effectiveness of statin therapy for primary prevention in a low-cost statin era. Circulation. 2011;124(2):146–53., , , , .
Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: a model-based approach on screening intervals. Brit J Cancer. 2011;105(7):1082–8., , , .
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. A practical approach. Med Decis Making. 1985;5(2):157–77., , , , .
Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: the need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability. Risk Anal. 1994;14(5):707–12., .
Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials. 1986;7:177–88., .
Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening: preliminary results of a systematic review of the literature. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 1993;25(2):113–18., .
The credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making: the case of population screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm. J Health Serv Res Policy. 2007;12(1):11–17., , , , .
Modeling the impact of population screening on breast cancer mortality in the United States. Breast. 2011;20 Suppl 3:S75–81., , , et al.
Life expectancy biases in clinical decision modeling. Med Decis Making. 1995;15:158–69., .
Simulation Modeling and Analysis. 3rd edn. Boston: McGraw-Hill Higher Education; 2000., .
An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York: Chapman & Hall; 1993., .
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a dynamic economic evaluation model for vaccination programs. Med Decis Making. 2008;28(2):182–200., , , et al.
Pulling cost-effectiveness analysis up by its bootstraps: a non-parametric approach to confidence interval estimation. Health Econ. 1997;6(4):327–40., , .
A bootstrap approach to medical decision analysis. J Health Econ. 1997;16(6):741–7., .
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis methods for general decision models. Comput Biomed Res. 1986;19(3):254–65., , .
Assessing uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses: application to a complex decision model. Med Decis Making. 1997;17(4):390–401., , , et al.
The Handbook of Research Synthesis and Meta-Analysis. New York: Russel Sage Foundation; 2009., , .
2011., . Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions: Cochrane Collaboration
Probabilistic analysis of cost-effectiveness models: choosing between treatment strategies for gastroesophageal reflux disease. Med Decis Making. 2002;22(4):290–308., , , .
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework. Med Decis Making. 2003;23(4):341–50., , .
Costs, effects and C/E-ratios alongside a clinical trial. Health Econ. 1994;3(5):309–19., , , .
Confidence intervals for cost/effectiveness ratios. Health Econ. 1995;4(5):373–81., .
Estimating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios: an example from a randomized trial. Stat Med. 1996;15(13):1447–58., .
Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios: a comparison of four methods. Health Econ. 1997;6(3):243–52., , , .
Bayesian estimation of cost-effectiveness ratios from clinical trials. Health Econ. 1999;8(3):191–201., , .
Net health benefits: a new framework for the analysis of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Med Decis Making. 1998;18(2 Suppl):S68–80., .
The distribution of the index in a normal bivariate population. Biometrika. 1932;24:428–40..
Cost and patency rate targets for the development of endovascular devises to treat femoropopliteal arterial disease. Radiology. 2001;221(1):137–45., .
Cost-effectiveness targets for multi-detector row CT angiography in the work-up of patients with intermittent claudication. Radiology. 2003;227(3):647–56., , , et al.
Noninvasive imaging for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease: focusing the development of new diagnostic technology. Annals of Internal Medicine. 1999;131(9):673–80., , , .
Focusing technology assessment using medical decision theory. Med Decis Making. 1988;8:279–89., .
Uncertainty in decision models analyzing cost-effectiveness: the joint distribution of incremental costs and effectiveness evaluated with a nonparametric bootstrap method. Med Decis Making. 1998;18(3):337–46., , , .
Limitations of acceptability curves for presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Med Decis Making. 2007;27(2):101–11., , , et al.
Expected value of sample information calculations in medical decision modeling. Med Decis Making. 2004;24(2):207–27., , .
Value of information analysis used to determine the necessity of additional research: MR imaging in acute knee trauma as an example. Radiology. 2008;246(2):420–5., , , et al.