Introduction

This assessment of some dramatic changes in the Polish fishery system has been inspired by the general assumption that a warming of the global climate may turn out to be unavoidable over the next several decades. The consequences of increasing CO emissions as a result of industrial activities are highly complex. The rise of average atmospheric temperatures by about 2–3°C could have numerous implications for marine ecosystems. Primary production and natural fish habitats will be disturbed to some, as yet unpredictable, extent. Consequently, the distribution of some living marine resources could shift, adversely affecting some fishing communities while benefiting others.

It is not yet known whether, or how, different sectors of societies will be able to respond to the environmental impacts of a global warming. Hence, the question arises whether past experiences of some fishing nations could be used to anticipate impacts on society that could take place in the future. The approach taken in this assessment is based on the concept of a case scenario. The character, qualities and range of applicability of the case-scenario approach have been comprehensively discussed for this project by, for example, Glantz (1988) and Jamieson (1988). Thus, this chapter presents basic facts regarding what actually took place in the Polish fishery. It also considers whether these facts bear any significant resemblance to those which might occur in other national fisheries as a result of global warming in the future.