Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-qsmjn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T16:19:11.240Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

2 - The Emergence of Decision Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

By
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Edited by
Ward Edwards ,
Ralph F. Miles Jr.  and
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Affiliation:
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
Get access

Summary

ABSTRACT. Decision analysis emerged as a discipline separate from decision theory or operations research following World War II. It could not have emerged earlier. It required a stable society with the appropriate philosophy and culture, and a sufficiently rich mathematical language to think logically about decision making. It required the understanding of subjective probability of Ramsey (1926) and de Finetti (1931, 1937), and the appropriate measure of preference under uncertainty of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) and later of Savage (1954). It formally came into being with the naming by Howard and his merger of decision theory and systems analysis.

(1966).

This chapter draws on several historical reviews on the development of probability and utility cited in this chapter and on reviews of the emergence of decision analysis (Edwards 1954, 1961; Raiffa 1968, 2002; Smith and von Winterfeldt 2004; von Winterfeldt and Edwards 1986). This chapter starts with the first intellectual awakenings of the mind of humans. From there it traverses through the origins of mathematics, Greek philosophy, the Renaissance, and on into the twentieth century. It concludes with the significant publications of Howard (1965, 1966, 1968) and Raiffa (1968). This book is only a way point in the progress of decision analysis. Decision analysis can be expected to experience significance advances throughout the twenty-first century and beyond.

Type
Chapter
Information
Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications
 , pp. 13 - 31
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arbuthnot, J. (1710). An argument for divine providence, taken from the constant regularity observ'd in the births of both sexes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 27, 186–190. Reprinted in 1977 in M. G. Kendall and R. L. Plackett, Studies in the History of Statistics and Probability (Vol. 2). London: Griffin, pp. 30–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arnauld, A., and Nicole, P. (1662). La logique ou l'art de penser, aka Port-Royal logic. Translated in 1964 by J. Dickoff and P. James. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill.Google Scholar
Bacharach, M., and Hurley, S. (1991). Foundations of decision theory. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers.Google Scholar
Bacon, F. (1620). Novum organum. English translation in 1863 in Spedding, J., Ellis, R. L., and Heath, D. D., The works (Vol. VIII). Boston: Taggard and Thompson. Translated and edited in 1994 by P. Urbach and J. Gibon, Francis Bacon, Novum Organum, with other parts of the great instauration. La Salle, IL: Open Court.Google Scholar
Ball, W. W. R. (1908). A short account of the history of mathematics. (4th ed.). New York: Dover Publications. An unabridged and unaltered republication of the 1908 (last) edition.Google Scholar
Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418. Reprinted in 1958 with biographical note by G. A. Barnard in Biometrika, 45, 293–315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, E. T. (1937). Men of mathematics. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Bentham, J. (1789). An introduction to the principles of morals and legislation. Reprinted in 1968 with notes in A. N. Page (ed.), Utility theory: A book of readings. New York: John Wiley, pp. 3–29.CrossRef
Berger, J. O. (1985). Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. (2nd ed.). New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernardo, J. M., and Smith, A. F. M. (1994). Bayesian theory. New York: John Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernoulli, D. (1738). Specimen theoriae novae di mensura sortis. Commentarii academiae scientiarum imperialis petropolitanea, 5, 175–192. Translated in 1954 by L. Sommer, Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk. Econometrica, 22, 23–36.Google Scholar
Bernoulli, J. (1713). Ars conjectandi. Thurnisius, Basilea. Reprinted in 1975 in Die Werke von Jakob Bernoulli (vol. 3). Basel: Birkhäuser.
Berry, D. A. (1996). Statistics: A Bayesian perspective. Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press.Google Scholar
Bierman, H. S., and Fernandez, L. (1998). Game theory with economic applications. (2nd ed.). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Binmore, K. (1994). Playing fair: Game theory and the social contract (Vol. 1). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Box, G. E. P., and Tiao, G. C. (1973). Bayesian inference in statistical analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Boyer, C. B. (1968). A history of mathematics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Brams, S. J. (1990). Negotiation games: Applying game theory to bargaining and negotiation. New York: Routledge, Chapman & Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brams, S. J., and Taylor, A. D. (1996). Fair Division: From cake-cutting to dispute resolution. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Camerer, C. F. (2003). Behavioral game theory: Experiments in strategic interaction. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Cardano, G. (1664). Liber de ludo aleae. English translation in 1953 in O. Ore, Cardano, the gambling scholar. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Carnap, R. (1950). Logical foundations of probability. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Chernoff, H., and Moses, L. E. (1959). Elementary decision theory. New York: John Wiley. Reprinted in 1986 by Dover Publications, NY.Google Scholar
Connolly, T., Arkes, H. R., and Hammond, K. R. (Eds.). (2000). Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader. (2nd ed.). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cooke, R. (1997). The history of mathematics: A brief course. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Dale, A. I. (1999). A history of inverse probability: From T. Bayes to K. Pearson. (2nd ed.). New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daston, L. (1988). Classical probability in the enlightenment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
David, F. N. (1962). Games, gods and gambling: A history of probability and statistical ideas. London: Charles Griffin. Reprinted in 1998 by Dover Publications, Mineola, NY.Google Scholar
David, H. A., and Edwards, A. W. F. (2001). Annotated readings in the history of statistics. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finetti, B. (1931). Sul Significato Soggettivo della Probabilità. Fundamenta Mathematicae, 17, 298–329. Translated in 1993 in P. Monari and D. Cocchi (Eds.), On the Subjective Meaning of Probability. Probabilità e Induxione. Bologna: Clueb, pp. 291–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finetti, B. (1937). La prévision: Ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives. Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré, 7, 1–68. Translated in 1980 by H. E. Kyburg, Jr., Foresight. Its logical laws, its subjective sources. In H. E. Kyburg, Jr. and H. E. Smokler (Eds.), Studies in Subjective Probability. (2nd ed.). Huntington, NY: Robert E. Krieger, pp. 53–118.Google Scholar
Finetti, B. (1970). Teoria delle probaililtà (Vol. I and II). Torino, Italy: Giulio Enaudi. Translated in 1974 and 1975 by A. Machi and A. Smith, Theory of probability: A critical introductory treatment. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Finetti, B. (1972). Probability, inductions and statistics: The art of guessing. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Moivre, A. (1718). Doctrine of chances: Or a method of calculating the probability of events in play. London: W. Pearson. Facsimile reprint in 1967 of the 3rd ed. (1767). New York: Chelsea Publishing.Google Scholar
Earman, J. (1992). Bayes or bust? A critical examination of confirmation theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Edgeworth, F. Y. (1881). Mathematical psychics: An essay on the application of mathematics to the moral sciences. London: Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380–417.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Edwards, W. (1961). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 12, 473–498.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Edwards, W., Lindman, H., and Savage, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Research, 70, 193–242.Google Scholar
Edwards, W., and Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1967). Decision making. Middlesex, UK: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Fellner, W. (1965). Probability and profit: A study of economic behavior along Bayesian lines. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin.Google Scholar
Fibonacci, L. (1202). Liber abaci. Translated in 2002 by L. E. Sigler in Leonardo Pisano's book of calculation. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Fine, T. L. (1973). Theories of probability: An examination of foundations. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Fishburn, P. C. (1982). The foundations of expected utility. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: D. Reidel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishburn, P. C. (1986). The axioms of subjective probability. Statistical Science, 1, 335–358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
French, S. (1989). From decision theory to decision analysis. In French, S., Readings in decision analysis. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall, pp. 158–174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, M. and Savage, L. J. (1948). Utility analysis of choices involving risk. Journal of Political Economy, 56, 179–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, M., and Savage, L. J. (1952). The expected utility hypothesis and the measurability of utility. Journal of Political Economy, 60, 463–475.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., and Rubin, D. B. (1995). Bayesian data analysis. London: Chapman & Hall.Google Scholar
Gibbons, R. (1992). Game Theory for Applied Economists. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., and Selten, R. (Eds.). 2001. Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolkit. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., and Krüger, L. (1989). The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gill, J. (2002). Bayesian methods: A social and behavioral sciences approach. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall.Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., and Kahneman, D. (Eds.). (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, W. M., and Hogarth, R. M. (Eds.). (1997). Research on judgment and decision making: Currents, connections, and controversies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Good, I. J. (1983). Good thinking: The foundations of probability and its applications. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Good, I. J. (1987). Subjective Probability. In Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., and Newman, P. (Eds.), Utility and probability. New York: W. W. Norton, pp. 255–269.Google Scholar
Hacking, I. (1975). The emergence of probability: A philosophical study of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference. London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hacking, I. (1987). Was there a probabilistic revolution 1880–1930? In Kruger, L., Daston, L. J., and Heidelberger, M.. (Eds.), The probabilistic revolution: I: Ideas in history. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 45–55.Google Scholar
Hacking, I. (1990). The taming of chance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hájek, A. (2004). Pascal's Wager. In Zalta, E. N. (Ed.), The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Retrieved on May 31, 2005 from http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2004/entries/pascal-wager.Google Scholar
Hald, A. (1990). A history of probability and statistics and their applications before 1750. New York: John Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hald, A. (1998). A history of mathematical statistics from 1750 to 1930. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Hartigan, J. A. (1983). Bayes theory. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hicks, J. R., and Allen, R. G. D. (1934). A reconsideration of the theory of value. Economica, 14, 52–76, 197–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howard, R. A. (1965). Bayesian decision models for system engineering. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics, SSC-1, 36–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howard, R. A. (1966). Decision analysis: Applied decision theory. In Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research. New York: John Wiley, pp. 55–71.Google Scholar
Howard, R. A. (1968). The foundations of decision analysis. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics, SSC-4, 211–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, C., and Urbach, P. (1993). Scientific reasoning: The Bayesian approach. (2nd ed.). Chicago, IL: Open Court.Google Scholar
Hugyens, C. (1657). De ratiociniis in aleae ludo. In Oeuvres complètes de Christiaan Huygens (Vol. 14). The Hague: Nijhoff, pp. 49–179.Google Scholar
Jaynes, E. T. (2003). Probability theory: The logic of science. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Edited by G. Larry Bretthorst.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffrey, R. C. (1983). The logic of decision. (2nd ed.). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of probability. (3rd ed.). New York: Oxford University Press. Reprinted in 1998 in the Oxford Classics series with corrections and amplifications through 1966.Google Scholar
Jensen, F. V. (2001). Bayesian networks and decision graphs. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorland, G. (1987). The Saint Petersburg paradox. In Krüger, L. L., Daston, J., and Heidelberger, M. (Eds.), The probabilistic revolution, Vol. 1: Ideas in history. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 157–190.Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (Eds.). (2000). Choices, values, and frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaplan, M. (1996). Decision theory as philosophy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, J. M. (1921). A treatise on probability. London: Macmillan. Reprinted in 2004 by Dover Publications, Mineola, NY.Google Scholar
Kline, M. (1972). Mathematical thought from ancient to modern times. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Kolmogorov, A. N. (1933). Foundations of the theory of probability. Second edition translated in 1956 by N. Morrison and published by Chelsea Publishing, NY.Google Scholar
Krantz, D. H. (1964). Conjoint measurement: The Luce–Tukey axiomatization and some extensions. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1, 248–277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krantz, D. M., Luce, R. D., Suppes, P., and Tversky, A. (1971). Foundations of Measurement (Vol. I: Additive and Polynomial Representations). New York: Academic Press, p. 12.Google Scholar
Krüger, L. (1987). The probabilistic revolution in physics – an overview. In Krüger, L., Gigerenzer, G., and Morgan, M. S. (Eds.). The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol. 2: Ideas in the Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 373–378.Google Scholar
Krüger, L., Daston, J., and Heidelberger, M. (Eds.). (1987). The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol. 1: Ideas in history. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Krüger, L., Gigerenzer, G., and Morgan, M. S. (Eds.). (1987). The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol. 2: Ideas in the Sciences, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Kuhn, H. W. (Ed.). (1997). Classics in Game Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kuhn, T. S. (1996). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. (3rd ed.). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laplace, P. S. (1814). Essai philosophique sur les probabilities. Translated by F. W. Truscott and F. L. Emory and reprinted in 1951 with an introductory note by E. T. Bell as A philosophical essay on probabilities. New York: Dover Publications.Google Scholar
Lindley, D. V. (1969). Introduction to probability and statistics from a Bayesian viewpoint. Vol. 1: Probability. London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lindley, D. V. (1970). Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint. Vol. 2: Inference. London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lindley, D. V. (1972). Bayesian Statistics: A Review. Philadelphia, PA: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luce, R. D., Krantz, D. H., Suppes, P., and Tversky, A. (1990). Foundations of Measurement (Vol. III: Representation, Axiomatization, and Invariance). San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Luce, R. D., and Raiffa, H. (1957). Games and decisions: Introduction and critical survey. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Luce, R. D. and Tukey, J. W. (1964). Simultaneous conjoint measurement: A new type of fundamental measurement. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1, 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marschak, J. (1950). Rational behavior, uncertain prospects, and measurable utility. Econometrica, 18, 111–141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMillan, J. (1992). Games, strategies, and managers: How managers can use game theory to make better business decisions. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mele, A. R., and Rawling, P. (Eds.). (2004). The Oxford handbook of rationality. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Menger, K. (1934). The Role of Uncertainty in Economics. Reprinted in 1967 in Shubik, M. (Ed.), Essays in Mathematical Economics in Honor of Oskar Morgenstern. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, pp. 211–231Google Scholar
Montmort, P. R. de. (1713). Essai d'analyse sur les jeux de hasard. (2nd ed.). Paris: Jacque Quillau. Reprinted in 1721 in Histoire de l'Académie royale des sciences pour l'année 1719, pp. 83–93.Google Scholar
Morse, P. M., and Kimball, G. E. (1951). Methods of operations research. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Myerson, R. B. (1991). Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Nash, J. F. (1950). The bargaining problem. Econometrica, 18, 155–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nash, J. F. (1951). Non-cooperative games. Annals of Mathematics, 54, 286–295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Hagen, A. (1994). Kendall's advanced theory of statistics. Vol. 2B: Bayesian inference. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Ordeshook, P. C. (1986). Game theory and political theory: An introduction. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pascal, B. (1670). Pensées. Translated in 2003 by W. F. Trotter. New York: Dover Publications.Google Scholar
Poisson, S. D. (1837). Recherches sur la probabilité des jugements en matière criminelle et en matière civile. Paris: Bachelier.Google Scholar
Porter, T. M. (1986). The rise of statistical thinking 1820–1900. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pratt, J. W., Raiffa, H., and Schlaifer, R. (1964). The foundations of decision under uncertainty: An elementary exposition. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 59, 353–375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Press, S. J. (1989). Bayesian statistics: Principles, models, and applications. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Raiffa, H. (1968). Decision analysis: Introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty.Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Raiffa, H. (2002). Decision analysis: A personal account of how it got started and evolved. Operations Research, 50, 179–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raiffa, H., and Schlaifer, R. (1961). Applied statistical decision theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Ramsey, F. P. (1926). Truth and Probability. In Braithwaite, R. B., (Ed.). 1931. Ramsey, F. P., The foundations of mathematics and other logical essays. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. Reprinted in 1980 in H. E. Kyburg, Jr. and H. E. Smokler, Studies in subjective probability. (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley. Reprinted in 1990 in D. H. Mellor, Philosophical papers: F. P. Ramsey. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Robert, C. P. (2001). The Bayesian choice: From decision–theoretic foundations to computational implementation. New York: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Routledge, . (2000). Francis Bacon. Concise Routledge encyclopedia of philosophy. London: Routledge, p. 73.Google Scholar
Rubinstein, A. (1998). Modeling bounded rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Savage, L. J. (1954). The foundations of statistics. New York: John Wiley. Revised second edition published in 1972 by Dover Publications, New York.Google Scholar
Schelling, T. C. (1960). The strategy of conflict. London: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Schlaifer, R. (1959). Probability and statistics for business decisions: An introduction to managerial economics under uncertainty. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Schlaifer, R. (1969). Analysis of decisions under uncertainty. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Schneider, S. L., and Shaneau, J. (Eds.). (2003). Emerging perspectives on judgment and decision research. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanteau, J., Mellers, B. A., and Schum, D. (1999). Decision science and technology: Contributions of Ward Edwards. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129–138.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Simon, H. A. (1982). Models of bounded rationality (Vol. 2). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Smith, J. E., and Winterfeldt, D. (2004). Decision analysis in management science. Management Science, 50(5), 561–574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, G. J. (1950). The development of utility theory. Journal of Political Economy, 58, 307–327, 373–396.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, S. M. (1986). The history of statistics: The measurement of uncertainty before 1900. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Stigler, S. M. (1999). Statistics on the table: The history of statistical concepts and methods. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Suppes, P., Krantz, D. M., Luce, R. D., and Tversky, A. (1989). Foundations of Measurement (Vol. II: Geometrical, Threshold, and Probabilistic Representations). San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Thrall, R. M., Coombs, C. H., and Davis, R. L. (Eds.). (1954). Decision processes. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Todhunter, I. (1865). A history of the mathematical theory of probability from the time of Pascal to that of Laplace. Cambridge. Reprinted in 1949 and 1965. New York: Chelsea Publishing.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 18, 1124–1131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Venn, J. (1866). The logic of chance. Reprinted in 1962. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Mises, R. (1957). Probability, statistics, and truth. (2nd revised English ed.). Originally published in 1928 (3rd ed.) in German by J. Springer. Reprinted in 1981 by Dover Publications, New York.Google Scholar
Neumann, J., and Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of games and economic behavior. (2nd ed.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Winterfeldt, D., and Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wald, A. (1950). Statistical decision functions. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Weatherford, R. (1982). Philosophical foundations of probability theory. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Weirich, P. (1984). The St. Petersburg gamble and risk. Theory and Decision, 17, 193–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
West, M., and Harrison, J. (1989). Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winkler, R. L. (2003). An Introduction to Bayesian inference and decision. (2nd ed.). Gainsville, FL: Probabilistic Publishing.Google Scholar
Wright, G., and Ayton, P. (Eds.). (1994). Subjective probability. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Zellner, A. (1971). An introduction to Bayesian inference in econometrics. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×