Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-788cddb947-wgjn4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-10-07T15:30:53.643Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 3 - Sustaining a High Rate of Industrial Growth in India in the Next 10 Years

from Section 2 - Reviving growth of industry and exports

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 December 2015

Bishwanath Goldar
Affiliation:
Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), New Delhi
Pradeep Agrawal
Affiliation:
Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi
Get access

Summary

INTRODUCTION

India's new National Manufacturing Policy (announced in 2011) aims at raising the share of manufacturing in aggregate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from about 15 per cent at present to about 25 per cent by 2022 (or thereabout), and creating in that process an additional 100 million jobs. Achievement of this goal requires the real output of India's manufacturing to grow at the average rate of about 15 per cent per annum in the next 10 years if one assumes that the aggregate GDP will grow at the rate of 10 per cent per annum in that period. The required growth rate in real output of India's manufacturing is about 13 per cent per year if the growth rate in aggregate GDP in the next 10 years is taken to be lower at about 8 per cent per annum. During the period 1999–2000 to 2011–12, the trend growth rate in aggregate GDP was 7.7 per cent per annum and that in manufacturing GDP was slightly higher at 8.3 per cent per year. According to first revised estimates of national income released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) (Press note dated 31 January 2014) and advanced estimates of national income released by the CSO (press note 7 February 2012), the growth rate in real GDP in manufacturing in 2012–13 over the previous year was 1.1 per cent, and that in 2013–14 is expected to be –0.2 per cent. Thus, the average growth rate in manufacturing GDP during the period 1999–2000 to 2012–13 was less than 8 per cent per year, which holds true also for the period 1999–2000 to 2013–14. Evidently, a huge increase in the growth rate in manufacturing real output (by 5 per cent or more) would be required if the target of enhancing the share of manufacturing in aggregate GDP to 25 per cent within a decade is to be achieved. Is such an increase in the growth rate of manufacturing real GDP possible and sustainable, and if so, what does it entail?

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2015

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×