Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- About the editor
- List of contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The art and science of large-scale disasters
- 3 Multiscale modeling for large-scale disaster applications
- 4 Addressing the root causes of large-scale disasters
- 5 Issues in disaster relief logistics
- 6 Large-scale disasters: perspectives on medical response
- 7 Augmentation of health care capacity in large-scale disasters
- 8 Energy, climate change, and how to avoid a manmade disaster
- 9 Seawater agriculture for energy, warming, food, land, and water
- 10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol-related hazards affecting megacities
- 11 Tsunamis: manifestation and aftermath
- 12 Intermediate-scale dynamics of the upper troposphere and stratosphere
- 13 Coupled weather–chemistry modeling
- 14 Seasonal-to-decadal prediction using climate models: successes and challenges
- 15 Climate change and related disasters
- 16 Impact of climate change on precipitation
- 17 Weather-related disasters in arid lands
- 18 The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction
- 19 Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction
- 20 Space measurements for disaster response: the International Charter
- 21 Weather satellite measurements: their use for prediction
- Epilogue
- Index
19 - Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 October 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- About the editor
- List of contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The art and science of large-scale disasters
- 3 Multiscale modeling for large-scale disaster applications
- 4 Addressing the root causes of large-scale disasters
- 5 Issues in disaster relief logistics
- 6 Large-scale disasters: perspectives on medical response
- 7 Augmentation of health care capacity in large-scale disasters
- 8 Energy, climate change, and how to avoid a manmade disaster
- 9 Seawater agriculture for energy, warming, food, land, and water
- 10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol-related hazards affecting megacities
- 11 Tsunamis: manifestation and aftermath
- 12 Intermediate-scale dynamics of the upper troposphere and stratosphere
- 13 Coupled weather–chemistry modeling
- 14 Seasonal-to-decadal prediction using climate models: successes and challenges
- 15 Climate change and related disasters
- 16 Impact of climate change on precipitation
- 17 Weather-related disasters in arid lands
- 18 The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction
- 19 Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction
- 20 Space measurements for disaster response: the International Charter
- 21 Weather satellite measurements: their use for prediction
- Epilogue
- Index
Summary
Weather-related disasters, unlike many other disasters, are often predictable up to several days in advance. This predictability leads to issues of preparedness that would depend directly on how much the predictions are trusted. This chapter gives insight into predicting the various types of weather disaster and how weather prediction products should be used by emergency managers who want to take into account the state of the science to determine how much they trust the forecasts. The chapter also explains the areas of current uncertainty in weather prediction, which are primarily in the areas of model physics and initialization data.
Introduction
A key tool in current-day weather forecasting is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, and it is usually the primary guidance for forecasts ranging from a few hours to a few days. NWP covers a vast span of temporal and spatial scales, and model domains range from global to continental to national to local. In this chapter, the range of scientific and technical issues that form fundamental limits to model predictions are addressed, with particular attention to the way these problems greatly depend on the particular scales of application required for the forecasts. Therefore, this chapter is organized somewhat according to the type of application, which is largely a function of the required forecast range.
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- Information
- Large-Scale DisastersPrediction, Control, and Mitigation, pp. 447 - 452Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2008
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