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20 - Future Water Scarcity over the Yellow River Basin and the Effects of Adaptive Measures

from Part III - Sustainable Water Management under Future Uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2022

Qiuhong Tang
Affiliation:
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
Guoyong Leng
Affiliation:
Oxford University Centre for the Environment
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Summary

Water scarcity has become one of the major risks to sustainable development in the Yellow River (YR) basin. This chapter presents a quantitative projection of future water scarcity in the YR basin with the consideration of both climate change and socioeconomic development, and further analysed the effects of adaptive measures (i.e., improvements in water saving techniques and inter-basin water transfer projects) on water scarcity mitigation. Results suggest that water scarcity in the YR basin would be considerably aggravated by an increase in water demand, and water stress index (WSI) and water deficit increase by 57 and 200 per cent in 2010–2050, respectively. The application of improved water saving techniques might contribute to mitigate about 35 and 53 per cent of the WSI and water deficit in 2050, respectively. Inter-basin water transfer projects are expected to reduce water scarcity in the YR basin by decreasing WSI by 16 per cent and water deficit by 19 per cent in 2050. This chapter contributes to the literature on water scarcity in the YR basin under global change and provides recommendations for future water management and sustainable development.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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