Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-55597f9d44-n4bck Total loading time: 1.102 Render date: 2022-08-07T15:54:41.280Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "useNewApi": true } hasContentIssue true

12 - An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 September 2009

Stuart Miller
Affiliation:
Development Studies Institute, London, School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2 A 2AE, UK
Robert Muir-Wood
Affiliation:
Risk Management Solutions (RMS), 7015, Gateway Boulevard, Newark, CA 94560, USA
Auguste Boissonnade
Affiliation:
Risk Management Solutions (RMS), 7015, Gateway Boulevard, Newark, CA 94560, USA
Henry F. Diaz
Affiliation:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, District of Columbia
Richard J. Murnane
Affiliation:
Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Garrett Park, Maryland
Get access

Summary

Condensed summary

In order to evaluate potential trends in global natural catastrophe losses, it is important to compensate for changes in asset values and exposures over time. We create a Global Normalized Catastrophe Catalogue covering weather-related catastrophe losses in the principal developed (Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, United States) and developing (Caribbean, Central America, China, India, the Philippines) regions of the world. We survey losses from 1950 through 2005, although data availability means that for many regions the record is incomplete for the period before the 1970s even for the largest events. After 1970, when the global record becomes more comprehensive, we find evidence of an annual upward trend for normalized losses of 2% per year. Conclusions are heavily weighted by US losses, and their removal eliminates any statistically significant trend. Large events, such as Hurricane Katrina and China flood losses in the 1990s, also exert a strong impact on trend results. In addition, once national losses are further normalized relative to per capita wealth, the significance of the post-1970 global trend disappears. We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and normalized catastrophe losses.

Introduction

Economic losses attributed to natural disasters have increased from US$75.5 billion in the 1960s to US$659.9 billion in the 1990s (United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2004), for an annual growth rate of approximately 8%. Private sector data also show rising insured losses over a similar period (Munich Re, 2001; Swiss Re, 2005).

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Changnon, S., Pielke, R., Sylves, R., and Pulwarty, R. (2001). Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 437–42.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (2006). University of East Anglia, Norwich. www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/#sciref.
Collins, D. J., and Lowe, S. P. (2001). A macro validation dataset for U.S. hurricane models. www.casact.org/pubs/forum/01wforum/01wf217.pdf.
Downton, M. W., and Pielke, R. A. Jr. (2005). How accurate are disaster loss data? The case of U.S. flood damage. Natural Hazards, 35, 211–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emanuel, K. A. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 486, 686–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001). IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate change 2001. www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm.
Re, Munich Group. (2001–5). Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes. Munich: WKD Offsetdruck GmbH.Google Scholar
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2005). The deadliest, costliest, and most intense United States tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2004 (and other frequently requested hurricane facts). www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-4.pdf.
Overseas Development Institute (ODI) (2005). ODI briefing paper: Aftershocks: natural disaster risk and economic development policy. www.odi.org.uk/publications/briefing/bp_disasters_nov05.pdf.
Pielke, R. A. Jr., and Landsea, C. (1998). Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting, September 1998, 621–31.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pielke, R. A. Jr., Downton, M. W., and Miller, Barnard J. Z. (2002). Flood Damage in the United States, 1926–2000: A Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).Google Scholar
Pielke, R. A. Jr., Ribeira, J., Landsea, C., Fernández, M. L., and Klein, R. (2003). Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: normalized damage and loss potentials. Natural Hazards Review, August, 101–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swiss Reinsurance Company. (2005, 2006). Sigma. Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters. Zürich: Swiss Reinsurance Company, Economic Research & Consulting.
United Nations (1992). International Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster ManagementGeneva: United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs (DHA), International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR).
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2004). Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development. www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm.
Vink, G.et al. (1998). Why the United States is becoming more vulnerable to natural disasters. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 79(44), 533–7.Google Scholar
47
Cited by

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×