Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-05T22:30:12.959Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

References

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2023

Paul Whiteley
Affiliation:
University of Essex
Harold D. Clarke
Affiliation:
University of Texas, Dallas
Matthew Goodwin
Affiliation:
University of Kent, Canterbury
Marianne C. Stewart
Affiliation:
University of Texas, Dallas
Get access

Summary

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Chapter
Information
Brexit Britain
The Consequences of the Vote to Leave the European Union
, pp. 336 - 348
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abadie, A., Diamond, A. and Hainmueller, J.. 2015. ‘Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method’. American Journal of Political Science 59: 495510.Google Scholar
Abrams, Mark and Rose, Richard. 1960. Must Labour Lose? Baltimore: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron. 2009. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Achen, Christopher H. and Bartels, Larry. 2016. Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Governments. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acock, Alan. 2013. Discovering Structural Equation Modeling Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
Adams, James, Merrill, Samuel and Grofman, Bernard. 2005. A Unified Theory of Party Competition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Aghion, Philippe, Antonin, Celine and Bunel, Simon. 2021. The Power of Creative Destruction: Economic Upheaval and the Wealth of Nations. Cambridge MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Agnew, J. A. 1996. ‘Mapping Politics: How Context Counts in Electoral Geography’. Political Geography 15: 129146.Google Scholar
Akerlof, George A. and Shiller, Robert J.. 2009. Animal Spirits. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Alford, Robert R. 1963. Party and Society. Chicago: Rand McNally.Google Scholar
Allen, Nicholas. 2018. ‘Gambling with the Electorate: The Conservatives in Government’. In Allen, Nicholas and Bartle, John, eds., None Past the Post. Britain at the Polls 2017. Manchester: Manchester University Press, Chapter 2.Google Scholar
Allen, Nicholas and Bartle, John, eds. 2018. None Past the Post: Britain at the Polls, 2017. Manchester: Manchester University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Nicholas and Bartle, John, eds. 2021. Breaking the Deadlock: Britain at the Polls 2019. Manchester: Manchester University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altman, N. S. 1992. ‘An Introduction to Kernel and Nearest-Neighbor Nonparametric Regression’. The American Statistician 46: 175185.Google Scholar
Alwin, Duane and Krosnick, Jon A.. 1991. ‘Aging, Cohorts and the Stability of Socio-Political Orientations Over the Life Span’. American Journal of Sociology 97: 169195.Google Scholar
Anderson, Benedict. 1983. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origins and Spread of Nationalism. London: Verso.Google Scholar
Anderson, Christopher. 2000. ‘Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective’. Electoral Studies 19: 151170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher J., Blais, André, Shaun Bowler, , Donovan, Todd and Listhaug, Ola. 1997. Losers’ Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Anselin, Luc, 1988. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Arzheimer, Kai. 2018. ‘Explaining Electoral Support for the Radical Right’. In Rydgren, Jens, ed., The Oxford Handbook of the Radical Right. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Atkinson, A. B. 2015. Inequality: What Can be Done? Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Baddley, Michelle. 2013. Behavioural Economics and Finance. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barwell, Gavin. 2021. Chief of Staff: Notes from Downing Street. Atlantic.Google Scholar
Becker, H. A. 1990. Life Histories and Generations. Utrecht: ISOR.Google Scholar
Bell, Andrew and Jones, Kelvyn. 2014. ‘Another “Futile Quest”? A Simulation Study of Yang and Land’s Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Model’. Demographic Research 30: 333368.Google Scholar
Bell, Andrew and Jones, Kelvyn. 2018. ‘The Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Model: Why Does It Find the Results That It Finds?Quality and Quantity 52: 783799.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bernstein, Robert, Chadha, Anita and Montjoy, Robert. 2001. ‘Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters’. Public Opinion Quarterly 65: 2244.Google Scholar
Black, Duncan. 1958. The Theory of Committees and Elections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Blyth, Mark. 2013. Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bookstaber, Richard. 2017. The End of Theory: Financial Crises, the Failure of Economics and the Sweep of Human Interaction. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Budge, Ian, Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, Andrea Volkens, , Bara, Judith and Tanenbaum, Eric. 2001. Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments, 1945–1998. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://manifesto-project.wzb.eu/Google Scholar
Burnham, Kenneth P. and Anderson, David R.. 2011. Model Selection Criteria and Multi-Model Inference: A Practical Information Theoretic Approach, 2nd edn. New York: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Butler, David and Butler, Gareth. 1994. British Political Facts, 1900–1994, 7th edn. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Butler, David and Kitzinger, Uwe W.. 1996. The 1975 Referendum, 2nd edn. London: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, David and Stokes, Donald E.. 1969. Political Change in Britain: Forces Shaping Electoral Choice. New York: St Martin’s Press.Google Scholar
Cairns, Andrew. 2004. Interest Rate Models – An Introduction. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip, Miller, Warren and Stokes, Donald. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Campos, Nauro F., Coricelli, Fabrizio and Moretti, Luigi. 2019. ‘Institutional Integration and Economic Growth in Europe’. Journal of Monetary Economics 103: 88104.Google Scholar
Carl, Noah. 2017. What Sort of Brexit Deal does the British Public Want? A Review of the Evidence So Far. Centre for Social Investigation, Nuffield College, Oxford/UK In a Changing Europe.Google Scholar
Carl, Noah, Dennison, James and Evans, Geoffrey. 2019. ‘European but Not European Enough: An Explanation for Brexit’. European Union Politics 20: 282304.Google Scholar
Carlin, Wendy and Soskice, David. 2005. Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions and Policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Carlsson-Szlezak, P., Reeves, M. and Swartz, P. 2020. ‘What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy’. Harvard Business Review, March 3.Google Scholar
Cerras, Valerie, Fatas, Antonio and Saxena, Sweta C.. 2020. ‘Hysteresis and Business Cycles’. IMF Working Paper, 20/73. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Cerras, Valerie and Chaman Saxena., Sweta 2008. ‘Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery’. American Economic Review 98: 439457.Google Scholar
Chabris, Christopher and Simons, Daniel. 2010. The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us. London: Harper-Collins.Google Scholar
Chamley, Christopher. 2004. Rational Herds: Economic Models of Social Learning. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Churchill, Winston. 1931. ‘Fifty Years Hence’. Magazine. December. www.nationalchurchillmuseum.org/fifty-years-hence.htmlGoogle Scholar
Cirrillo, Pasquale and Taleb, Nassim N.. 2020. ‘Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases’. Nature Physics, June: 606613.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Goodwin, Mathew and Whiteley, Paul. 2017. Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Goodwin, Mathew and Whiteley, Paul. 2019. ‘Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote’. Parliamentary Affairs 70: 439–464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Kornberg, Allan and Scotto, Thomas J.. 2009. Making Political Choices: Canada and the United States. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D. and McCutcheon, Allan. 2009. ‘The Dynamics of Party Identification Reconsidered’. Public Opinion Quarterly 73: 704728.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Mishler, William and Whiteley, Paul. 1990. ‘Recapturing the Falklands – Models of Conservative Popularity, 1979–1983’. British Journal of Political Science 20: 6381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Sanders, David, Marianne C. Stewart, and Whiteley, Paul. 2004. Political Choice in Britain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Sanders, David, Marianne C. Stewart, and Whiteley, Paul. 2009. Performance Politics and the British Voter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Clausen, Aage R. 1968–69. ‘Response Validity: Vote Report’. Public Opinion Quarterly 32: 588606.Google Scholar
Conlisk, John. 1996. ‘Why Bounded rationality?Journal of Economic Literature 34: 669700.Google Scholar
Constant, Amelia F. and Tien., Bienvenue N. 2011. ‘Germany’s Immigration Policy and Labour Shortages’. IZA Research Report No. 41.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1964. ‘The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics’. In Apter, David E., ed., Ideology and Discontent. Glencoe, Il: The Free Press.Google Scholar
Cowley, Philip and Kavanagh, Dennis. 2016. The British General Election of 2015. London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Cowley, Philip and Kavanagh, Dennis. 2018. The British General Election of 2017. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curtice, John. 2017. ‘Why Leave Won the UK’s EU Referendum’, Journal of Common Market Studies Supplement 1. 55: 1937.Google Scholar
Curtice, John. 2018. ‘Why Chequers Has Gone Wrong for Theresa May’, What UK Thinks: EU, 17 July. Available online: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/why-chequers-has-gone-wrong-for-theresa-may/ (accessed 2 April 2020).Google Scholar
Curtice, John. 2019. ‘What Do the Public Think?’ In Parliament and Brexit report. UK in a Changing Europe. Available online: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Parliament-and-Brexit-report.pdf (accessed 1 April 2020).Google Scholar
Curtin, Richard. 2019. Consumer Expectations: Micro Foundations and Macro Impact. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cutts, David, Goodwin, Matthew, Heath, Oliver and Milazzo, Caitlin. 2019. ‘Resurgent Remain and a Rebooted Revolt on the Right: Exploring the 2019 European Parliament Elections in the United Kingdom’. Political Quarterly 90: 496514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, Robert. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert. 1998. On Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell, Farrell, David and McAllister, Ian. 2011. Political Parties and Democratic Linkage: How Parties Organize Democracy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Darmofal, David. 2015. Spatial Analysis for the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dassonville, Ruth. 2013. ‘Questioning Generational Replacement: An Age, Period and Cohort Analysis of Electoral Volatility in The Netherlands, 1971–2010’. Electoral Studies 32: 3747.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeBell, Matthew et al. 2018. ‘The Turnout Gap in Surveys: Explanations and Solutions’. Sociological Methods and Research 50: 130.Google Scholar
Delli Carpini, Michael X. and Keeter, Scott. 1996. What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Desai, Meghnad. 1981. Testing Monetarism. London: Frances Pinter.Google Scholar
DeVries, Catherine. 2018. Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dunleavy, Parick and Husbands, Christopher T.. 1985. British Democracy at the Crossroads: Voting and Party Competition in the 1980s. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Easton, David. 1965. A Systems Analysis of Political Life. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Eatwell, Roger and Goodwin, Matthew. 2018. National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy. London: Penguin.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Mackuen, Michael B., Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro-Polity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Estrella, Arturo and Mishkin, Frederic S.. 1996. ‘The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions’. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance 2: 15.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey and Andersen, Robert. 2006. ‘The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions’. Journal of Politics 68: 194207.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey and Tilley, James. 2017. The New Politics of Class: The Political Exclusion of the British Working Class. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Fama, Eugene. 1965. ‘The Behavior of Stock Market Prices’. Journal of Business 38: 34105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R. and Timmer, M. P.. 2015. ‘The Next Generation of the Penn World Table’. American Economic Review 105: 31503182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fieldhouse, Edward, Green, Jane, Evans, Geoffrey, Mellon, Jonathan, Prosser, Christopher, Schmitt, Hermann and der Eijk, Cees Van. 2021. Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Finnis, John. 2019. The Unconstitutionality of the Supreme Court’s Prorogation Judgment. London: Policy Exchange.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. with Abrams, Samuel J. and Pope, Jeremy C.. 2005. Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America. New York: Pearson Education, Inc.Google Scholar
Ford, Robert, and Goodwin, Matthew. 2014. Revolt on the Right: Explaining Support for the Radical Right in Britain. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Franklin, Mark N. 2004. Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Franzese, Robert and Hays, Jude. 2007. ‘Spatial Econometric Models of Cross-Sectional Interdependence in Political Science Panel and Time Series-Cross Section Data’. Political Analysis 15: 140164.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1953. Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton and Schwartz, Anna. 1963. A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gamble, Andrew. 1994. The Free Economy and the Strong State, 2nd edn. New York: New York University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, Park, David, Boris Shor, , Bafumi, Joseph and Cortina, Jeronimo. 2008. Red State, Blue state, Rich State, Poor state: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, Gerd. 2008. Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope With Uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hertwig, Ralph and Pachur, Thorsten. 2015. Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Glenn, Norval D. 1976. ‘Cohort Analysts’ Futile Quest – Statistical Attempts of Separate Age, Period and Cohort Effects’. American Sociological Review 41: 900904.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Harvey. 1979. ‘Age, Period and Cohort Effects – A Confounded Confusion’. Journal of Applied Statistics 6: 1924.Google Scholar
Goldthorpe, John H., Lockwood, David, Bechhofer, Frank and Platt, Jennifer. 1968. The Affluent Worker: Industrial Attitudes and Behaviour. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Goodwin, Matthew and Milazzo, Caitlin. 2016. UKIP: Inside the Campaign to Redraw the Map of British Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Goodwin, Matthew and Milazzo, Caitlin. 2017. ‘Taking Back Control? Investigating the Role of Immigration in the 2016 Vote for Brexit’. British Journal of Politics and International Relations 19: 450464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gould, Philip. 1998. The Unfinished Revolution: How the Modernizers Saved the Labour Party. London: Little Brown.Google Scholar
Granger, Clive W. 1988. ‘Some Recent Developments in the Concept of Causality’. Journal of Econometrics 2: 111120.Google Scholar
Grasso, Maria T. 2016. Generations, Political Participation and Social Change in Western Europe. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Hannah, Simon. 2020. Can’t Pay, Won’t Pay: The Fight to Stop the Poll Tax. London: Pluto Press.Google Scholar
Hanretty, Christopher. 2017. ‘Areal Interpolation and the UK’s Referendum on EU Membership’. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27: 466483.Google Scholar
Harmon, Mark D. 1997. The British Labour Government and the 1976 IMF Crisis. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Harris, Kenneth. 1982. Atlee. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.Google Scholar
Heath, Anthony, Jowell, Roger and Curtice, John. 1985. How Britain Votes. Oxford: Pergamon Press.Google Scholar
Heath, Oliver and Goodwin, Matthew J.. 2016. ‘The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-Level Analysis of the Result’. Political Quarterly 87: 323332.Google Scholar
Heath, Oliver and Goodwin, Matthew J.. 2017. ‘The 2017 General Election, Brexit and the Return to Two-Party Politics: An Aggregate-Level Analysis of the Result’. Political Quarterly 88: 345358.Google Scholar
HM Government. 2016a. HM Treasury Analysis: The Long-Term Economic Impact of EU Membership and the Alternatives. CMND 9250, April.Google Scholar
HM Government. 2016b. HM Treasury Analysis: The Immediate Economic Impact of Leaving the EU. CMND 9292, May.Google Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1996. ‘The Media’s Role in Forming Voters’ National Economic Evaluations in 1992’. American Journal of Political Science 40: 372395.Google Scholar
Hindess, Barry. 1988. Choice, Rationality, and Social Theory. London: Unwin Hyman.Google Scholar
Hobolt, Sara and Leeper, Thomas. 2017. ‘The British Are Indifferent about Many Aspects of Brexit, but Leave and Remain Voters are Divided on Several Key Issues’. LSE Blogs, 13 August. Available at: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/13/the-british-are-indifferent-about-many-aspects-of-brexit-but-leave-and-remain-voters-are-divided-on-several-key-issues/Google Scholar
Hobolt, Sara, Leeper, Thomas and Tilley, James. 2018. ‘Emerging Brexit Identities’. UK In a Changing Europe Blog, 3 February. Available at: ukandeu.ac.uk/emerging-brexit-identities/Google Scholar
Hobolt, Sara, Leeper, Thomas and Tilley, James. 2020. ‘Divided by the vote: Affective Polarization in the Wake of the Brexit Referendum’. British Journal of Political Science 50: 118.Google Scholar
Hobolt, Sara and Tilley, James. 2014 Blaming Europe? Responsibility without Accountability in the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hobsbawm, Eric. 1990. Nations and Nationalism Since 1780. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hodrick, Robert and Prescott, Edward C.. 1997. ‘Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation’. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29: 126.Google Scholar
Horne, Alistair. 1989. Harold Macmillan, Volume 1: 1894–1956. London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Hotelling, Harold. 1929. ‘Stability in Competition’. The Economic Journal 39: 4157.Google Scholar
House of Commons. 2017. Briefing Paper Number CBP 7979, 8 September. London: House of Commons Library.Google Scholar
House of Commons. 2020. ‘General Election 2019: Results and Analysis’. Briefing Paper Number CPB8749. London: House of Commons Library.Google Scholar
Hox, Joop J., Moerbeek, Mirjam and Van de Schoot, Rens. 2018. Multilevel Analysis: Techniques and Applications. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Huckfield, Robert and Sprague, John, 1995. Citizens, Politics and Social Communication. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 1988. Reasons of State: Oil Politics and the Capacities of American Government. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1977. The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 2018. Cultural Evolution: People’s Motivations Are Changing, and Reshaping the World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Institute for Fiscal Government. 2019. The Brexit Effect: How Government Has Changed since the EU Referendum. London: Institute for Government.Google Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto. 1991. Is Anyone Responsible? How Television Frames Political Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jensen, M. D. and Kelstrup, J. D.. 2019. ‘House United, House Divided: Explaining the EU’s Unity in the Brexit Negotiations’. Journal of Common Market Studies 57: 2839.Google Scholar
Johnston, Ron and Pattie, Charles. 2006. Putting Voters in Their Place. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Johnston, Ron, Pattie, Charles and Allsopp, J. G.. 1988. A Nation Dividing? The Electoral Map of Great Britain 1979–1987. London: Longman.Google Scholar
Johnston, Ron, Pattie, Charles, Dorling, Danny and Rossiter, David. 2001. From Votes to Seats. Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Jordà, Òscar, Singh, Sanjay R. and Taylor, Alan M.. 2020. ‘Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics’. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020–09.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking Fast and Slow. London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, Sibony, Oliver and Sunstein, Cass R.. 2021. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement. London: Harper-Collins.Google Scholar
Kay, John and King, Mervyn. 2020. Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers. London: The Bridge Street Press.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark Andreas and Wlezien, Christopher. 2011. ‘Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote’. European Journal of Political Research 50: 365394.Google Scholar
Keegan, William, Marsh, David and Roberts, Richard. 2017. Six Days in September: Black Wednesday, Brexit and the Making of Europe. London: OMFIF Press.Google Scholar
Kelton, Stephanie. 2020. The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and How to Build a Better Economy. London: John Murray Publishers.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Peter. 2008. A Guide to Econometrics, 6th edn. New York: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
Kettell, Steven and Kerr, Peter. 2020. ‘From Eating Cake to Crashing Out: Constructing the Myth of a No-Deal Brexit’. Comparative European Politics 18: 590608.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kinder, Donald and Kiewiet, Roderick D.. 1981. ‘Sociotropic Politics: The American Case’. British Journal of Political Science 11: 129161.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1996. ‘Why Context Should Not Count’. Political Geography 15: 159164.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1997. A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Knight, Frank. 1921. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Kornberg, Allan and Clarke, Harold D.. 1992. Citizens and Community: Political Support in a Representative Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kuklinski, James H. and Quirk, Paul J.. 2000. ‘Reconsidering the Rational Public: Cognition Heuristics and Mass Opinion’. In Lupia, Arthur, McCubbins, Mathew D. and Popkins, Samuel L., eds., Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice and the Bounds of Rationality. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kyle, Keith. 2011. Suez: Britain’s End of Empire in the Middle East. London: I.B.Taurus.Google Scholar
Lenz, Gabriel. 2012. Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians’ Policies and Performance. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Colin and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2015. Applied Regression: An Introduction. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Nadeau, Richard and Foucault, Martial. 2013. ‘The Complete Economic Voter: New Theory and British Evidence’. British Journal of Political Science 43: 241261.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Stegmaier, Mary. 2013. ‘The V-P Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After Over 40 Years’. Public Choice 157: 367385.Google Scholar
Long, J. Scott and Freese, Jeremy. 2014. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata, 3rd edn. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
Ashcroft, Lord. 2016. ‘The New Blueprint. The Conservative Agenda in Post-Brexit Britain’. 5 September. Available online: lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/09/the-new-blueprint/Google Scholar
Lowenstein, Roger. 2008. Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Lucas, Robert E. and Sargent, Thomas J.. 1981. Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice. Minneapolis, MN: The University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Lupia, Arthur. 2016. Uninformed: Why People Know So Little about Politics and What We Can Do about It. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Lupia, Arthur and McCubbins, Mathew D.. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Really Need to Know? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lynch, Philip. 2019. ‘The Conservative Party’. In Parliament and Brexit. The UK In a Changing Europe.Google Scholar
Mackuen, Michael D., Erikson, Robert and Stimson, James A.. 1989. ‘Macropartisanship’. American Political Science Review 83: 11251142.Google Scholar
Maki, Uskali. 2009. The Methodology of Positive Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malkiel, Burton. 1973. A Random Walk Down Wall Street. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Manin, Bernard, Przeworski, Adam and Stokes, Susan C.. 1999. ‘Elections and Representation’. In Przeworski, Adam, Stokes, Susan C. and Manin, Bernard, eds., Democracy, Accountability and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mankiw, Gregory N. and Romer, David, eds. 1991. New Keynesian Economics, Volume 2: Coordination Failures and Real Rigidities. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.Google Scholar
Mannheim, Karl. 1928. The Problem of Generations: Essays on the Sociology of Knowledge. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Mark, Justin T., Marion, Brian B. and Hoffman, Donald D.. 2010. ‘Natural Selection and Veridical Perceptions’. Journal of Theoretical Biology 66: 504515.Google Scholar
Marquand, David. 1997. Ramsey MacDonald. London: Richard Cohen Books.Google Scholar
Mattinson, Deborah. 2020. Beyond the Red Wall: Why Labour Lost, How the Conservatives Won and What Will Happen Next? London: Biteback Publishing.Google Scholar
McAllister, Ian and Studlar, Donley. 1992. ‘Region and Voting in Britain 1979–1987: Territorial Polarization or Artifact?American Journal of Political Science 36: 168199.Google Scholar
McLachlan, Geoffrey J., Lee, Sharon X. and Rathnayake, Suren I.. 2019. ‘Finite Mixture Models’. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application 6: 355378.Google Scholar
Menon, Anand and Wager, Alan. 2021. ‘“The Long Goodbye”: Brexit’. In Ford, Robert, Bale, Tim and Jennings, Will, eds., The British General Election of 2019. London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Merrill, Samuel and Grofman, Bernard. 1999. A Unified Theory of Voting: Directional and Proximity Spatial Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Miller, William L. 1977. Electoral Dynamics. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Moore, Charles. 2020. Margaret Thatcher Authorized Biography, Volume 3. London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Morgan, Stephen L. and Winship, Christopher. 2015. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mudde, Cas and CristóbalKaltwasser, Rovira. 2017. Populism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Murr, Andreas. 2011. ‘Wisdom of Crowds? A Decentralised Election Forecasting Model That Uses Citizens’ Local Expectations’. Electoral Studies 30: 771783.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muth, John A. 1961. ‘Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements’. Econometrica 19: 315335.Google Scholar
Nannestad, Peter and Paldam, Martin. 1994. ‘The V-P Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After 25 Years’. Public Choice 79: 213245.Google Scholar
National Centre for Social Research. 2016. ‘What Do Voters Want from Brexit?’ https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Analysis-paper-9-What-do-voters-want-from-Brexit.pdfGoogle Scholar
Neundorf, Anja and Niemi, Richard. 2014. ‘Beyond Political Socialization: New Approaches in Age, Period and Cohort Analysis’. Electoral Studies 33: 16.Google Scholar
Nie, Norman H., Junn, Jane and Stehlik-Barry, Kenneth. 1996. Education and Democratic Citizenship in America. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa and Inglehart, Ronald. 2019. Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1996. ‘Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study’. American Journal of Political Science 40: 825850.Google Scholar
Pilling, S. and Cracknell, R.. 2021. UK Election Statistics 1918–2021: A Century of Elections. London: House of Commons Library CBP7529.Google Scholar
Pimlott, Ben. 1992. Harold Wilson. London: Harper-Collins.Google Scholar
Pogrund, Gabriel and Maguire, Patrick. 2020. Left Out: The Inside Story of Labour Under Corbyn. London: Penguin Random HouseGoogle Scholar
Pollard, Sidney. 1982. The Wasting of the British Economy. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Popkin, Samuel L. 1991. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Popov, Vladimir and Jomo, K. S.. 2018. ‘Are Developing Countries Caching Up?Cambridge Journal of Economics 43: 3346.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. ‘A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context’. American Journal of Political Science 37: 391414.Google Scholar
Pulzer, Peter. 1967. Political Representation and Elections in Britain, London: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
Rayson, Steve. 2020. The Fall of the Wall: ‘The Labour Party No Longer Represents People Like Us’. London: self-published.Google Scholar
Reif, Karlheinz and Schmidt, Hermann. 1980. Nine Second-Order National Elections – A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results’. European Journal of Political Research 8: 344.Google Scholar
Reither, Eric A., Masters, Ryan K., Yang, Yang Claire, Daniel A. Powers, , Hui Zheng, and Land, Kenneth C.. 2015. ‘Should age–period–cohort studies return to the methodologies of the 1970s?Social Science and Medicine 128: 356365.Google Scholar
Robinson, William. 1940. ‘Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals’. American Sociological Review 3: 351357.Google Scholar
Romei, V. and Strauss, D. 2021. ‘UK Economists’ Survey: Recovery Will Be Slower than in Peer Countries’. Financial Times, 3 January.Google Scholar
Romer, Paul. M. 1990. ‘Endogenous Technological Change’. Journal of Political Economy 98: S71–S102.Google Scholar
Saia, A. 2017. ‘Choosing the Open Sea: The Cost to the UK of Staying Out of the Euro’. Journal of International Economics 108: 8298.Google Scholar
Sanders, David. 2000. ‘The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy in Popularity Functions: How Much Do Voters Need to Know? A Study of British Data 1974–1997’. Electoral Studies 19: 275294.Google Scholar
Sanders, David. 2017. ‘The UK’s Changing Party System: The Prospects for a Party Realignment at Westminster’. Journal of the British Academy 5: 91124.Google Scholar
Sanders, David, Clarke, Harold D., Stewart, Marianne C. and Whiteley, Paul. 2008. ‘The Endogeneity of Preferences in Spatial Models: Evidence from the 2005 British Election Study’. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 18: 413431.Google Scholar
Sarlvik, Bo and Crewe, Ivor. 1983. Decade of Dealignment: The Conservative Victory of 1979 and Electoral Trends in the 1970s. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Shiller, Robert. 1989. Market Volatility. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.Google Scholar
Shiller, Robert. 2019. Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shiller, Robert. 2000. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shipman, T. 2017. Fall Out: A Year of Political Mayhem. London: William Collins.Google Scholar
Silver, Nate. 2012. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t. New York: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert. 1957. ‘A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice’. In Herbert Simon, Models of Man, Social and Rational: Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Sims, Christopher. 1980. ‘Macroeconomics and Reality’. Econometrica 48: 148.Google Scholar
Sivathasan, Chujan. 2021. ‘How Strong Are Brexit Identities Now?’ What UK Thinks Blog Post, 15 December. Available online: whatukthinks.org/eu/how-strong-are-brexit-identities-now/Google Scholar
Skidelsy, Robert. 2009. Keynes: The Return of the Master. London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Solobewska, Maria and Ford, Robert. 2021. Brexitland: Identity, Diversity and the Reshaping of British Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Solow, Robert. 1957. ‘Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function’. Review of Economics and Statistics 39: 312320.Google Scholar
Solow, Robert. 1970. Growth Theory: An Exposition. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Soroka, Stuart. 2006. ‘Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information’. Journal of Politics 68: 372385.Google Scholar
Soroka, Stuart and McAdams, Stephen. 2015. ‘News, Politics and Negativity’. Political Communication 32: 122.Google Scholar
Steil, Benn. 2013. The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White and the Making of a New World Order. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1963. ‘Spatial Models of Party Competition’. American Political Science Review 57: 368377.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1992. ‘Valence Politics’. In Kavanagh, Dennis, ed., Electoral Politics. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Taleb, Nicholas. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London: Penguin.Google Scholar
Tett, Gillian. 2009. Fool’s Gold – How Unrestrained Greed Corrupted a Dream, Shattered Global Markets and Unleashed a Catastrophe. London: Little Brown.Google Scholar
Tilley, James. 2002. ‘Political Generations and Partisanship in the UK, 1964–1997’. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society – Series A. Statistics in Society 165: 121135.Google Scholar
Timothy, Nick. 2020. Remaking one nation: The future of conservatism. John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Traugott, Michael W. and Katosh, John P.. 1979. ‘Response Validity in Surveys of Voting Behavior’. Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 359377.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1990. Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 2002. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Urbinati, Nadia. 2005. ‘Continuity and Rupture: The Power of Judgment in Democratic Representation’. Constellations 12: 194222.Google Scholar
Urbinati, Nadia and Warren, Mark E.. 2008. ‘The Concept of Representation in Contemporary Democratic Theory’. Annual Review of Political Science 11: 387412.Google Scholar
Uslaner, Eric, ed. 2018. The Oxford Handbook of Social and Political Trust. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
van der Brug, Wouter, der Eijk, Cees van and Franklin, Mark N.. 2007. The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Verba, Sidney and Norman H., Nie. 1972. Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Verba, Sidney, Schlozman, Kay and Brady, Henry E.. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Whitaker, Richard. 2019. ‘The Labour Party’. In Brexit and Parliament. UK in a Changing Europe.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul. 2022. ‘Rational Choice Theory and Political Participation’, in Guigni, Marco and Grasso, Maria, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Participation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul and Clarke, Harold D.. 2020. ‘Forecasting the Economic Consequences of Brexit’. In Rose, Richard, ed., How Referendums Challenge European Democracy: Brexit and Beyond. London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul, Clarke, Harold D., Sanders, David and Stewart, Marianne C.. 2013. Affluence, Austerity and Electoral Change in Britain. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul, Clarke, Harold D., Sanders, David and Stewart, Marianne C.. 2016. ‘Hunting the Snark: A Reply to “Re-Evaluating Valence Models of Political Choice”’. Political Science Research and Methods 4: 221240.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul and Kölln, Ann-Kristin. 2019. ‘How Do Different Sources of Partisanship Influence Government Accountability in Europe?International Political Science Review 40: 502517.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul, Poletti, Monica, Webb, Paul and Bale, Tim. 2019. ‘Oh Jeremy Corbyn! Why Did Labour Membership Soar after the 2017 General Election?British Journal of Politics and International Relations 21: 8098.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul, Seyd, Patrick and Clarke, Harold D.. 2021. ‘Labour Party: Leadership Lacking’. In Allen, Nicholas and Bartle, John, eds., Breaking the Deadlock: Britain at the Polls 2019. Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher, Franklin, Mark N. and Twiggs, Daniel. 1997. ‘Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity’. Political Behavior 19: 717.Google Scholar
Yang, Claire and Land, Kenneth. 2013. Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. New York: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar